5% Growth at a Cost: China's Struggles with Domestic Stability

By Jessica Huang

5% Growth at a Cost: China's Struggles with Domestic Stability
Cover Image Attribute: The Shanghai Skyline view from The Bund / Source: Pixabay

China's economy achieved its official target of 5% growth last year, but this success came with significant disparities. While the industrial and export sectors thrived, many citizens experienced worsening living standards, highlighting an uneven distribution of economic gains. The Chinese government has struggled to channel the benefits of industrial growth into the consumer sector, creating a widening gap between economic performance and public welfare. This imbalance has prompted concerns that structural issues within the economy may persist or even worsen in the coming year.

Looking ahead to 2025, China plans to sustain similar growth rates, but its strategy involves increasing debt to mitigate external challenges. One of the most immediate threats is the anticipated tariff hike from the United States, potentially set to take effect following the inauguration of President Donald Trump. Such measures could place additional strain on China's export-reliant economy, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. December's economic data underscored this imbalance, with industrial output significantly outpacing retail sales, rising unemployment, and domestic weaknesses becoming more evident despite a robust trade surplus.

The reliance on export-driven growth is both a strength and a vulnerability for China. Competitive pricing, driven by factory gate deflation, has bolstered the country's dominance in global markets but has also intensified trade tensions with other nations. Domestically, falling prices have eroded corporate profits and workers' incomes, compounding economic challenges. As trade gaps with rival economies widen, Beijing faces mounting pressure to address these imbalances and adopt policies that ensure more equitable growth, safeguarding both international relationships and the welfare of its population.

Andrew Wang, an executive in the industrial automation sector catering to the burgeoning electric vehicle industry, faced significant setbacks last year, reporting a 16% decline in revenue. The downturn forced him to make job cuts, a trend he anticipates continuing in the near future. Reflecting on the economic outlook, Wang likened the experience to increasing the difficulty level on a treadmill, with the government's optimistic data feeling disconnected from the reality many businesses are experiencing. His concerns highlight the widening gap between official economic figures and on-the-ground sentiments.

The Chinese government has remained tight-lipped about the growing skepticism surrounding its reported economic data. Both the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Council Information Office, which typically address such inquiries, have not responded to questions regarding the credibility of the figures. Analysts warn that if the majority of Beijing's new stimulus measures continue to prioritize industrial upgrades and infrastructure development over direct support to households, it could worsen existing problems. These include overcapacity in manufacturing, subdued consumer spending, and mounting deflationary pressures, which collectively threaten the stability of the economy.

Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former China director at the International Monetary Fund, questioned the plausibility of China precisely meeting its 2024 growth target amid weak domestic demand, persistent deflation, and slumping property and equity markets. Prasad emphasized that China's challenges extend beyond its borders, as it also confronts a challenging global landscape. The sentiment that "we need to run faster just to stay where we are" encapsulates the growing strain on businesses and policymakers alike, as the nation grapples with maintaining growth in the face of significant internal and external headwinds.

Chinese exporters fear that a new round of higher tariffs will have a much more severe impact than those imposed during Donald Trump's first term. Many anticipate that this will accelerate the reshoring of production abroad, further eroding profit margins, cutting jobs, and discouraging private sector investment. Unlike 2018, when China was better positioned to weather the initial trade war, it now faces deeper vulnerabilities, including a protracted property crisis and overwhelming local government debt. The 'protracted property crisis' refers to the prolonged period of instability and uncertainty in the real estate market, which has significant implications for the overall economy. The 'overwhelming local government debt' refers to the excessive debt burden carried by local governments, which can hinder their ability to provide essential services and invest in economic development. These structural imbalances make the prospect of a "Trade War 2.0" far more daunting for the Chinese economy.

In response to these challenges, Beijing has emphasized domestic consumption as a cornerstone of its economic policies for the year. However, the specifics of these plans remain vague, aside from an expanded trade-in program that subsidizes purchases of cars, appliances, and other goods. Despite these measures, economic stimulus appears limited in scope. For instance, civil servants received their first significant pay raise in a decade, yet the overall increase amounts to only 0.1% of GDP. Meanwhile, financial regulators and private sector employees continue to face steep wage cuts, undermining broader economic recovery efforts and contributing to a sense of stagnation.

For individuals like Jiaqi Zhang, a 25-year-old investment banker in Beijing, 2024 has been defined by economic hardship. Zhang has endured salary cuts for the second consecutive year, amounting to a total reduction of 30%. Additionally, eight or nine of her colleagues were laid off, leaving the workplace tense and uncertain. "There is a general feeling of unease in the company," Zhang said, noting that she has curtailed spending on clothing and dining out. While she is prepared to leave her position, she faces a bleak job market, with few viable opportunities available. Her story encapsulates the growing anxiety among young professionals in China, as the nation grapples with a challenging economic landscape and limited prospects for immediate improvement.

Despite the challenges, China's economy has shown resilience. It surpassed economists' 2024 growth forecast of 4.9%, achieving an annual growth rate of 5%. Its fourth-quarter growth of 5.4% marked the fastest pace since early 2023, signaling a potential revival driven by industrial output and exports. This potential for growth in 2025 is a reason for hope. Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, described this uptick as a promising sign but cautioned that the late-year surge may have been artificially boosted by front-loading shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of new tariffs. He warned that this temporary boost would likely lead to a slowdown in subsequent quarters, increasing the need for domestic stimulus in 2025 to sustain momentum.

Despite the headline growth figures, market reactions were subdued, reflecting deeper skepticism about China's economic outlook. While stock indices in China and Hong Kong rose slightly, the yuan lingered near 16-month lows, weighed down by declining bond yields and looming tariff threats. Analysts attributed the muted market sentiment to wavering investor confidence, with many questioning the reliability of China's official data. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, noted that while China rarely misses its growth targets, as seen in 2022 due to the pandemic, meeting the 5% target for 2024 would do little to attract global investors. She argued that the target itself is losing significance, especially amid concerns about its accuracy.

Doubts about China's economic data were amplified by recent analyses suggesting a disconnect between official figures and the reality on the ground. A bearish commentary by prominent Chinese economist Gao Shanwen, which claimed that GDP growth from 2021 to 2023 may have been overstated by 10 percentage points, was quickly censored after going viral. Similarly, the Rhodium Group estimated that actual growth for 2024 ranged between 2.4% and 2.8%, pointing to the disparity between stable official figures and the wave of aggressive stimulus measures introduced mid-year. These included a substantial property market package in May, significant monetary easing in September, and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) local government debt package in November. According to Rhodium partner Logan Wright, these discrepancies highlight structural issues, particularly weak domestic demand, which exacerbate overcapacity and global trade tensions. He argued that if China were genuinely growing at the reported 5% rate, such challenges would be far less pronounced. 

With reporting by CNN, Financial Times and Reuters

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IndraStra Global: 5% Growth at a Cost: China's Struggles with Domestic Stability
5% Growth at a Cost: China's Struggles with Domestic Stability
By Jessica Huang
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https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvaCTEUs4su8JjAK624rH0oVTEIgQaS5fOkyfkQMpTZ8FObVKLFbAGDIzlIPS5XGLdnEYh7YryyVdf9tXuKQsZBzLD5qUsOIwWpdn-0I2bMBjXV37BcED_7f0_owkq95EjQ9PBUysGfrV0lS4UH5zHQQKxSG9Z9KegWMEgczZPXhvzl0Fbu6vMCOojAMn4/s72-w640-c-h348/river-7187070_1920.jpg
IndraStra Global
https://www.indrastra.com/2025/01/5-growth-at-cost-chinas-struggles-with.html
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https://www.indrastra.com/2025/01/5-growth-at-cost-chinas-struggles-with.html
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