India's GDP Soars to 7.8% in Q4, FY24 Peaks Above 8%

Via Syndicated Feed

India's GDP Soars to 7.8% in Q4, FY24 Peaks Above 8%

India's economy expanded at 7.8% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations. This expansion was largely driven by robust growth in the manufacturing sector, and economists anticipate this momentum will persist throughout the year. 

Government data released on Friday revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first three months of 2024, the fourth quarter of the 2023/24 fiscal year (FY), was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% expansion in the previous quarter.

On the same day, Moody's Ratings raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.8 percent from 6.5 percent, attributing it to robust economic expansion and continuity in post-election policies.

In the fiscal year 2023-24, Real Gross Value Added (GVA) expanded by 7.2 percent, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, which saw a GVA increase of 9.9 percent compared to a 2.2 percent contraction in 2022-23. The mining and quarrying sector also contributed to the growth, expanding by 7.1 percent in the previous fiscal year compared to 1.9 percent in FY23.

However, growth in the agricultural sector is expected to slow down to 1.4 percent in FY24 from 4.7 percent in 2022-23. Additionally, the GVA for the tertiary sector is projected to decline to 7.6 percent in 2023-24 from 10.0 percent in FY23, with trade, hotel, and transport-related services estimated to nearly halve year-on-year at 6.4 percent in the previous fiscal.

Real GVA is estimated to grow by 6.3 percent in Q4 of 2023-24, while nominal GDP for the last quarter of the previous fiscal year is expected to be at 9.9 percent. For the entire fiscal year of FY24, nominal GDP is projected at 9.6 percent, which is below the Budget estimate of 10.5 percent.

Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader of Economic Advisory at PwC India, noted that the 8.2 percent growth estimate for FY24 is significant as it surpasses the psychological mark of 8 percent. He attributed the strong GDP numbers to a robust performance in manufacturing, supported by a low base due to negative growth in the previous year. However, Banerjee expressed concern over declines in other sectors, such as agriculture and services.

In FY24, the manufacturing sector's GVA increased compared to the previous year, but it experienced a slowdown in the final quarter of the fiscal year, dropping to 8.9 percent from 11.5 percent in Q3.

The primary sector's GVA remained steady quarter-on-quarter at 1.1 percent, with a slight uptick in the farm sector to 0.6 percent from 0.4 percent in October-December. However, the mining and quarrying sector saw a significant slowdown to 4.3 percent in Q4 compared to 7.5 percent in Q3. As a result, while GDP remained steady, real GVA is expected to slow down to 6.3 percent in Q4 of FY24 from 6.8 percent in October-December.

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew by 4.0 percent year over year in the last quarter of the previous fiscal year but remained unchanged compared to Q3.
 
IndraStra Global Staff has not edited this story, which is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.

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IndraStra Global: India's GDP Soars to 7.8% in Q4, FY24 Peaks Above 8%
India's GDP Soars to 7.8% in Q4, FY24 Peaks Above 8%
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