Japan's Economy Outperforms Following Technical Recession

Via Syndicated Feed

Cover Image Attribute: Image by Sofia Terzoni from Pixabay
Cover Image Attribute: Image by Sofia Terzoni from Pixabay

Amid ongoing speculation of a potential early election, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida received largely positive news as Japan's economy experienced a faster expansion than initially anticipated. Increased spending was the driving force behind this growth, indicating a positive trend.

Revised figures from the Cabinet Office revealed that Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the January-March quarter compared to the previous three months. This surpassed the initial reading of 1.6% and the economists' forecast of 1.9% expansion. The revised data also indicated that Japan managed to avoid a technical recession at the end of the previous year.

The more substantial corporate investment suggests that companies maintain a positive outlook despite concerns about a global economic slowdown. However, rising inventories contributed to some growth figures, suggesting that demand might need to catch up with production in the future. Furthermore, consumer spending was slightly weaker than initially estimated.

Atsushi Takeda, the chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, highlighted the significance of domestic demand rebounding and the prevailing labor shortage, emphasizing that investment is essential for businesses to operate successfully. Takeda further expressed the belief that corporate capital investment plans are unlikely to undergo immediate changes due to these factors.

The better-than-expected economic performance positively impacts Japan's economic recovery and potentially gives Kishida greater flexibility in considering an early election. Hosting the Group of Seven leaders in Hiroshima this week and a successful summit could further boost his support ratings.

Despite the global downturn, this faster-than-anticipated growth may also reassure the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The recently appointed Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is currently evaluating the sustainability of economic growth and wage and price dynamics. There are expectations among certain market participants and economists that Ueda will make adjustments to the policy before the completion of the review he initiated in April.

The outcome surpassing expectations will likely fuel ongoing speculation regarding the BoJ's potential normalization of its policy after a decade of aggressive monetary easing. This speculation persists despite Governor Ueda's repeated statements that the bank has yet to consistently project inflation to reach its 2% target and, therefore, the need to continue easing measures.

As Japan strives to gain momentum toward a robust post-pandemic recovery, the world's third-largest economy faces favorable and challenging factors. The government's recent decision to align the classification of COVID-19 with seasonal flu, along with more substantial wage growth and additional price relief measures, is supporting domestic consumption. However, the ability of wages to keep pace with the stickier-than-expected inflation remains to be determined.

The main downside risks are worries that raising interest rates to combat inflation will cause a global economic slowdown. The decline in foreign demand is expected to adversely impact Japan's exports and discourage companies from investing in capital. Wednesday's data revealed that net trade had a more significant drag on last quarter's growth than initially estimated.

Japan's economic recovery has lagged behind that of its global counterparts, with alternating periods of growth and contraction since the start of 2021. Inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for some time. Still, Governor Ueda expects it to recede below that level later in the fiscal year as cost-push factors in energy and commodities diminish.

IndraStra Global Staff has not edited this story, which is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.

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IndraStra Global: Japan's Economy Outperforms Following Technical Recession
Japan's Economy Outperforms Following Technical Recession
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