Pakistan is Threatened by a Currency Crisis: Nomura

By IndraStra Global News Team

Pakistan is Threatened by a Currency Crisis: Nomura

According to Nomura Holdings, a Japanese financial holding company and investment bank, currency crises are imminent in Pakistan. In addition, the Japanese bank reported that the risk in 22 of the 32 countries covered by its in-house "Damocles" warning system has increased since its last update in May, with the Czech Republic and Brazil experiencing the most significant increases.

The cost of insuring Pakistan's exposure to five-year sovereign debt increased by 1,224 basis points over the weekend, reaching an all-time high of 92.53 percent. Analysts stated that until the political impasse between the government and the main opposition party of former prime minister Imran Khan is resolved, the country's sovereign dollar bonds will remain vulnerable.

Political unpredictability has significantly worsened Pakistan's economic situation. According to Business Recorder, the Pakistani rupee continued its downward trend against the US dollar on Monday, falling 0.22 percent on the interbank market.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee ended the day at 223.66 after falling 0.49. In the seven most recent trading sessions, the rupee has lost Rs 2.24, or 1%, against the US dollar.

Balance of Payment Crises


Pakistan's foreign exchange market is an essential aspect of the country's economy, as it determines the value of the Pakistani rupee against other currencies and shapes the country's trade and financial relations with the rest of the world. As a developing country with a diverse and expanding economy. 

One of the main factors that have historically affected Pakistan's foreign exchange market is the country's balance of payments. A balance of payments deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports, leading to a drain on foreign currency reserves. Pakistan has faced several balance of payments crises in the past, including a severe crisis in 2018 caused by rising oil prices, a large trade deficit, and slow economic growth. To address these crises, the government has had to seek financial assistance from international organizations and implement fiscal austerity measures. Also, the government has taken steps to address this issue by implementing trade policies that aim to increase exports and reduce imports, such as tariffs and other trade barriers.

Another critical factor that affects Pakistan's foreign exchange market is the country's exchange rate policy. The Pakistani rupee is a managed float currency, which means that market forces determine its value, but the central bank can intervene in the market to influence the exchange rate. The central bank uses various tools, such as buying or selling foreign currency, to manage the exchange rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

In addition to the balance of payments and exchange rate policy, other factors impacting Pakistan's foreign exchange market include economic conditions, political stability, and investor confidence. A strong and stable economy, political system, and business environment can attract foreign investment and help to maintain a healthy balance of payments and exchange rates.

Rising Energy Imports


Pakistan is a major importer of oil and gas, with these products being a vital source of energy for the country. In 2019, Pakistan imported around $14.5 billion of crude oil and petroleum products, accounting for 12% of the country's total imports. In addition, the country also imports a significant amount of natural gas, primarily in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG).

Several factors drive Pakistan's reliance on oil and gas imports. One of the main reasons is the country's domestic energy needs. Pakistan has a rapidly growing population and economy, which requires a large amount of energy to support it. However, the country has limited domestic oil and gas reserves and production and therefore relies on imports to meet its energy needs.

Another factor contributing to Pakistan's oil and gas imports is the country's reliance on these products as a primary energy source. Despite efforts to diversify its energy mix, Pakistan still relies heavily on oil and gas for transportation, electricity generation, and other uses. This makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in oil and gas prices, which can significantly impact the country's economy and trade balance.

Pakistan's Dependency on China


Pakistan has a complex relationship with China, with both economic and strategic ties between the two countries. Over the past decade, China has become a major trading partner and investor for Pakistan, with significant Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, energy, and other sectors.

Pakistan's dependency on China has grown significantly in recent years, with China being one of the country's top trading partners and a major source of foreign investment. In 2019, China was Pakistan's largest export destination, accounting for around 20% of Pakistan's total exports. In addition, China has also invested billions of dollars in Pakistan through initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which aims to connect China's western region with Pakistan's Gwadar Port through a network of infrastructure projects.

However, Pakistan's reliance on China has also raised concerns about the country's economic and strategic autonomy. Some critics have argued that Pakistan's growing debt to China, particularly through the CPEC projects, could lead to increased influence from China and potential vulnerability to Chinese economic and political interests.

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IndraStra Global: Pakistan is Threatened by a Currency Crisis: Nomura
Pakistan is Threatened by a Currency Crisis: Nomura
By IndraStra Global News Team
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