By Anmol Kumar and Siddhartha Das
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| Cover Image Attribute: Mohammed Assem / EyeEm | Credit: Getty Images/EyeEm |
After catching headlines over oil production cuts in OPEC+ ministerial meetings in Vienna and facing allegations of joining Russia's camp over the war in Ukraine, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia once again shocked Western countries, especially the United States, by expressing a desire to join BRICS.
BRICS is an association of five major emerging economies worldwide, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. It was established in 2009 to serve as an alternative to the West and counter western hegemony in geopolitics and the global economy under three pillars of political and security, economic and financial, and people-to-people contacts. Ideologically, BRICS advocates for multipolarity and cooperation in international politics.
Sailing on the boat of 'Multilateralism' and 'National Interest.'
One can understand Riyadh's bid to join BRICS through multilateralism and national interest. The Kingdom is a petrostate and earns 80 percent of its export income from oil. According to the Brookings Institute report 2020, "in the medium term, revenue from oil export is expected to decline due to expected reduction in global demand by 2040". To reduce oil dependency and diversify its economic resources, Saudi Arabia launched the Saudi Vision 2030 program. Diversification of the economy needs investments in education, health, infrastructure, and tourism, which requires multilateral cooperation on the international stage through various forums such as BRICS. The global system is becoming more fluid, and thus emerging market economies in general, and the Kingdom in particular, could play an essential role in multilateral forums.
The Kingdom is also trying to be a part of broader non-western partnership arrangements to have more diplomatic space in the current fractured world order. The Saudis are keen to move away from the shadows of American hegemony in the short term to diversify its partnership with other international players like China, India, and Russia. This is evident through the Yuan-priced oil agreement with China.
Breaking up with an old friend
The US and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are close security partners, but the Kingdom is infuriated over decreased US support in the former's intervention in Yemen. Riyadh is also dissatisfied with the attempt by the US to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Washington is also not amused by recent developments regarding oil production cuts in Vienna. US President Joe Biden and the lawmakers have criticized the move and threatened Riyadh to face 'consequences.' Cutting oil production may increase or stabilize oil prices in global energy markets that serve the economic interests of Saudi Arabia. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammad Bin-Salman (MBS), the Kingdom is preparing for an independent global political economy that is markedly different from the USA's national interest. Saudis are set to pursue their national interest in a bifurcated International system akin to the Cold War (Bipolar) and the Post-Cold war (Unipolar) era. Independent foreign policy becomes a key factor for sovereign states to achieve national interest. Stephen Kinzer once said, "Alliances and partnerships produce stability when they reflect realities and interests." Since the national interests of Washington and Riyadh are not in sync; hence Riyadh has the right to work with multiple partners to move its market and shape economic outcomes.
India may second the candidature
India has a delicate role in this issue to include additional members in the BRICS forum. First, being the proponent of multilateralism and expanding its ambit to other non-traditional actors, it must maintain the status quo or move toward expansion. Second, in recent times India-Saudi Arabia ties have deepened further with the visit of several high-level political leaders and officials from both sides. The country needs the Arab nation to safeguard its energy security ambitions and for the welfare of its large diaspora. Third, Riyadh is consequential for New Delhi to maintain its influence in the volatile West Asia region with its own domestic and international issues. That will undoubtedly test India's stand in the BRICS ministerial meeting, where it has to contend with other member nations like China and Russia as far as the expansion of BRICS is concerned.
Saudi Arabia must also demonstrate its candidature to join the BRICS grouping. This suggests that the country must align with the principles enshrined in the BRICS charter. Economically, it has to diversify from its standalone oil-based revenue generation like other countries in the grouping. The de facto ruler of the Kingdom, Mohammed Bin Salman, has taken commendable steps in initiating social and religious reforms but also needs to expand it to the political arena.
Hurdles in the way
For security needs, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the USA. By joining BRICS, MBS can balance its security needs and business partnership with the USA and other emerging economies. In addition, Riyadh may come closer to China and Russia in the economic sphere by becoming part of BRICS, which may disrupt the status quo and upset western countries. In that context, there is a need to look at the current decision-making rules at the BRICS forum. The BRICS works on the principle of consensus, which is the bedrock of any multilateral institution. Therefore, any major policy decisions, like including additional members in the forum, require unbridled support from the member states. Any application of the veto from the member states can lead to the derailment of the policy initiatives.
Additionally, BRICS needs a clear policy direction in its charter to include other nations in its member role. The last time any new member state was included was in 2010 when South Africa became part of the BRICS. Since then, numerous states like Iran and Argentina have applied for the same but have yet to join the group successfully.
The expansion of the BRICS needs to be considered based on the forum's founding principles. The grouping has emerging economies with the potential to shape the world order in the future. It was seen as a bulwark against western groupings such as G7. At that time, the latter groups were accused of favoring the interests of western powers like the USA and Europe, sidestepping the core interests of the Global South. There was broad discontent across the Global South that BRICS countries representing half of humanity with a substantial addition to the global GDP did not have their definitive voices at any post-world war multilateral institutions.
Any Multilateral Institution's longevity depends upon how it changes as per the changing times. As the world undergoes several churns in its configuration, BRICS also needs reforms. Reform as a measure to expand the membership is the right step forward. But the efforts need to be well calibrated and thought to make the institution more resilient.
About the Author
Anmol Kumar is a second-year master's student of Politics and International Relations at Pondicherry University. His area of interest lies in West Asia, Power Politics, and Foreign Policy.
Siddhartha Das is a second-year master's student of Politics and International Relations at Pondicherry University.
