IMF Chief: India A Bright Spot on the Otherwise Dark Horizon

Friday, October 14, 2022 Edit this post

By IndraStra Global News Team

Image by Shridhar Amati from Pixabay
Cover Image Attribute: Image by Shridhar Amati from Pixabay 

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that India deserved to be called a "bright spot" on this otherwise gloomy horizon due to its rapid economic growth, especially during these difficult times. Georgieva told reporters at a briefing about her expectations from India ahead of the G20 presidency. She noted that India's digitization and digital access are among the most astounding achievements.

Earlier, Paolo Mauro, deputy director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, referred to India's implementation of a direct cash transfer scheme and other similar social welfare programs as a "logistical marvel," stating that there is much to be learned from India, which is one of the most inspiring examples of the application of technology to solve complex problems.

According to Government of India (GoI) data, more than ₹24.8 lakh crore has been transferred through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) mode since 2013, ₹6.3 lakh crore in the financial year 2021-22 alone; on an average over 90 lakh, DBT payments are processed daily as per data of FY22.

India's Growth Rate


India is projected to grow at 6.8% in the current fiscal year, following 8.7% growth in the fiscal year that ended March 31 as per figures released in the IMF's October 2022 World Economic Outlook: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis at the start of the World Bank IMF Annual Meetings here in Washington DC.

India's growth rate for this year has been revised downward by 0.6 percentage points relative to the IMF's June 2022 forecast following a weaker output in the second quarter and subdued external demand, the IMF said. However, the forecast for the next fiscal year remains unaltered at 6.1%. 

India & Inflation


In current FY, inflation in India is above the RBI’s target, adding that the fiscal and monetary policy should be on "probably be on the tightening side". The IMF has projected 6.9% consumer price inflation this year and 5.1% next year. According to IMF economist Daniel Leigh, inflation in India is to return to the inflation tolerance band in the fiscal year 2023-24, and additional monetary tightening will ensure it happens.

On the other hand, the IMF forecasts that global inflation will peak in late 2022, rising from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022 and that it will "stay elevated for a longer period than previously anticipated." The IMF's report identified three significant developments that are now impeding growth: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living problem, and China's economic deceleration. Together, they provide an economically, geopolitically, and environmentally "volatile" period.

World Economic Outlook Report (October 2022)


According to IMF's World Economic Outlook Report (October 2022), India missed out on being the world's fifth-largest economy by a margin of $10 billion in 2021-22. It'll have to wait another year before it gets that coveted spot in 2022-23, overtaking the United Kingdom by $27 billion.

In 2021-22 (FY22), India's economy was worth $3.18 trillion, while Britain's was worth $3.19 trillion. However, according to World Bank data, India surpassed the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of FY22. However, that comparison was based on quarterly figures rather than annual ones.

The report also states; by 2025-26 (FY26), India's economy will match Germany's to become the fourth-largest in the world. It would become the third-largest economy by 2027-28 (FY28), surpassing Japan in size. Also, India's economy will not reach $5 trillion by 2026-27 as the finance minister had hoped, but it would be near enough. It would be $4.94 trillion that year.

NOTE 1: The size of India’s economy is calculated on a financial year basis (April to March). For other economies, it is on a calendar year basis.

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IndraStra Global: IMF Chief: India A Bright Spot on the Otherwise Dark Horizon
IMF Chief: India A Bright Spot on the Otherwise Dark Horizon
By IndraStra Global News Team
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