At the beginning of the new Christian year, as the Syrian crisis entered its fifth year, talking about “historical memory” and the need to revisit archives and libraries, review the 20th century’s developments, and focusing on historical grounds of the ongoing political events in the region and the world seem inevitable.
By Mohammad Ali
Dastmali
Regional Political Analyst
Consequences of the Strengthening of Daesh in Raqqah and Dissolution of Syria’s Baath Party
At the beginning
of the new Christian year, as the Syrian crisis entered its fifth year, talking
about “historical memory” and the need to revisit archives and libraries,
review the 20th century’s developments, and focusing on historical grounds of
the ongoing political events in the region and the world seem inevitable.
To analyze the
current situation in Syria, it would be appropriate to conduct a short and
brief study of the history with regard to the consequences of the World War 2
and the breeding grounds for Syria’s Baath party. Let’s remember that at that
time, Michel Aflaq, a Syrian Christian, and Salah al-Din al-Bitar, a Syrian
Sunni Muslim, established the Baath party in 1944 in a bid to put an end to
France’s control over Syria. However, socialist and Arab nationalist ideas were
later added to the party’s original idea and one can claim that it was this
party and its later changes that provided grounds for the former Syrian
president, Hafez Assad, to rise to power. Hafez Assad, like many other military
men in his country, took part in the coup d'état staged in 1963. During a later
coup in 1966, he became the country’s defense minister and in the 1970 coup
d'état, he took over the entire power and found the opportunity to serve his
country’s people as president for a period of forty years. After his demise,
his son, Bashar took over the power. In simple and clear words, since 45 years
ago, the father and son have not made anybody their partner in their secular as
well as military and security system of rule, and this is the factor that can
be mentioned as the most important foundation as well as theoretical and
practical characteristic of the Baath party of Syria.
Opponents’
positions, heavy presence of Daesh and Russia’s show of force
Following this
short introduction, now we can try to find an answer to this question that “is
it really necessary to consider the change of president, and in simpler words,
toppling Bashar Assad, as the most important option to end Syria crisis?” Or is
there any need to another large-scale scenario like “revising the Baath system
of Syria and its power maintenance mechanisms?”
Perhaps, this
question could be easily and firmly answered if a very powerful opposition
force existed, which would be able to replace the current regime as a suitable
alternative. However, a review of the situation of Syria opposition will easily
show that the opposition forces (not terrorists) are not able to turn their
ideals into the foremost discourse of all social elements of Syrian people in
political and theoretical spheres in an integrated and consolidated manner, and
regardless of the degree of their military and defense capabilities. Especially
at the present juncture, apart from all political, organizational, financial
and military problem, the Syrian opposition groups are also facing two other
major problems one of which is the presence of Daesh terrorist and Takfiri
forces in Syria with the other one being the show of force by Russia in Syria.
At present, Russia is using its powerful air raids, and by bombarding the
positions of Turkmens, Jaish al-Islam, the Free Syrian Army and other groups it
does not allow them to make new advances against the government forces let
alone toppling Assad and taking over the power in Syria.
Another riddle
and ambiguous situation with regard to the present and future scenarios of
Syria is the issue of the Syrian city of Raqqah. As we know, Raqqah is located
in northern part of Syria and close to Turkey’s border and enjoys very
important military and defense position. However, during at least the past
three years, the city has been impenetrable fortress and the most vital
stronghold of Daesh, which has been called the center of the Islamic caliphate
of Daesh in Syria. One of the most important reports related to Daesh in the
past few days was an agreement between Assad’s government and Daesh forces,
according to which, members of Daesh and their families, who were present on
the suburbs of Syrian capital, Damascus, were allowed to leave that region and
move to Raqqah. In other words, through consultations conducted by the UN
Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura and a preliminary agreement between
Russia and Damascus, it was decided that Daesh would have nothing to do with
Damascus anymore and transfer its forces to Raqqah.
Taking into
account the important geographical position of Raqqah and Daesh’s firm control
over the city and also due to difficulties faced for launching land or air
strikes against the city, and given the fact that the agreement between
Damascus and Daesh to allow Daesh force move toward Raqqah is a sign of the
difficult situation of the Syrian government and the weakness of Daesh, certain
ideas can be offered on this strange decision and agreement. Every one of these
ideas can be then used as a premise for a specific scenario on the future of
Syria:
Firstly, this
decision shows that Damascus and Moscow and even their other allies and
supporters have probably accepted that a special de facto status and position
must be given to Daesh in Raqqah, so that, this group will have nothing to do
with other parts of the country and continue to survive in the city.
Secondly, apart from
its benefits for the restoration of security to Damascus and Aleppo,
concentration of Daesh forces in Raqqah can face Turkey with a very serious
threat in its proximity and this situation would serve as some sort of
balancing factor along Turkey’s border with Syria. Apart from Turkey, it can be
even used to strike a balance among Kurds and the Turkmen and other opposition
forces as well.
Thirdly, leaving Raqqah
to Daesh may, on the surface, seem to be the sign of inability of Damascus and
Moscow to shatter the stronghold of Daesh, but it can also mean that the
involved parties have reached the threshold of decision making and decision
taking on the positioning of the opposition forces, and be considered as some
sort of relative division of power. Such a situation will probably lead to
relative restoration of security in northern Syria as well as the regions of
Aleppo and Damascus over medium term.
Fourthly, this decision is
a serious effort to counter the ideas of the United States and Turkey to create
a buffer zone in the Syrian cities of Azaz and Jarabulus, and consolidate their
control over the western banks of the Euphrates. At the same time, one may
claim that most possibly, the concurrence between recent killing of Zahran
Alloush and some other commanders of Jaish al-Islam, who were affiliated to
Turkey and Qatar, and Daesh terrorists leaving the suburbs of Damascus cannot
be unrelated to this idea.
Perhaps, other
ideas and scenarios can be added to the above list, but at any rate, the
reality is that this short-term and unsustainable idea cannot lead to
resolution of Syria crisis and provide suitable ground for full restoration of
security to the country. For complete resolution of Syria crisis, apart from
the need to solve the big problem of the presence of terrorist and Takfiri
groups, another important and vital issue is the necessity of revising the
structure of the Baath party and the way that Syria’s affairs are managed. This
is true, because even if the party were able to weather the current crisis,
which is a remote possibility, at another juncture, the consequences of the
iron fist policy would once again face Syria with crisis and, therefore, the
important idea of the need to revise the way Syria is managed must receive
serious attention.
Key Words: Syria,
Possible Scenarios, New Year, Consequences, Daesh, Raqqah, Dissolution, Baath
Party, Opponents, Russia, Turkey, Dastmali
Source: Iranian
Diplomacy (IRD)
Translated By: Iran Review.Org
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