Confidence Crisis: Americans Grow Anxious Over Jobs, Prices, and Economic Outlook

By IndraStra Business News Desk

Cover Image Attribute: A shopper pushes a shopping cart at a Costco store in Arlington, Virginia, on November 27, 2024. / Source: Benoit Tessier/Reuters

In June 2025, the pulse of American consumer sentiment weakened, as reflected in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which fell 5.4 points to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. This unexpected retreat, contrary to analysts’ predictions of a rise to 99.5, underscores a growing unease among consumers grappling with economic uncertainties. The decline, broad-based across age, income, and political affiliations, paints a complex picture of a nation wrestling with persistent concerns over tariffs, inflation, and future economic stability. While some indicators, such as family financial expectations, show resilience, the overall erosion of confidence raises questions about the trajectory of the U.S. economy in the coming months.
The Conference Board’s report reveals a notable deterioration in both the Present Situation Index, which dropped 6.4 points to 129.1, and the Expectations Index, which fell 4.6 points to 69.0. The latter’s plunge below the critical threshold of 80, a level historically associated with recession risks, is particularly concerning. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted, “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains.” This reversal comes despite recent White House efforts to de-escalate a trade war initiated in April, suggesting that policy shifts have yet to fully reassure the public.
Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions reflects this growing caution. Only 19.0% described business conditions as “good” in June, down from 21.4% in May, while 15.3% viewed them as “bad,” up from 13.7%. The labor market, though still perceived as solid, also showed signs of cooling. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to 29.2% from 31.1%, and the labor-market differential—a key indicator calculated by subtracting the percentage who find jobs “hard to get” (18.1%) from those who see them as plentiful—dropped to 11.1 points from 12.7. This marks the sixth consecutive month of weakening perceptions of job availability, hinting at potential vulnerabilities in a labor market that has been a cornerstone of economic stability.
Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook for the next six months grew markedly more pessimistic. Only 16.7% expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.9% in May, while 24.0% anticipated a worsening, a slight improvement from 25.4%. Similarly, expectations for job availability dimmed, with 15.4% foreseeing more jobs compared to 18.6% in May, and 25.9% expecting fewer. Income prospects also tilted toward caution, with 16.3% anticipating an increase in their incomes, down from 18.6%, though fewer (12.4% versus 13.5%) expected a decrease. Guichard observed, “The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened,” highlighting a pervasive sense of apprehension about the economic horizon.
Tariffs emerged as a dominant concern in consumers’ minds, frequently cited in write-in responses as a source of worry due to their perceived negative impacts on prices and the broader economy. Despite steps to ease trade tensions, these concerns persisted, suggesting that the ripple effects of earlier trade policies continue to shape public sentiment. Inflation, too, remained a significant issue, with consumers frequently mentioning high prices. However, there were glimmers of optimism: references to easing inflation increased slightly, and consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations cooled to 6.0% from 6.4% in May and 7.0% in April. This moderation may reflect growing awareness of stabilizing price trends, though it has yet to translate into broader confidence.
Geopolitical tensions and social unrest, while less prominent than tariffs and inflation, saw a slight uptick in mentions, indicating that external uncertainties continue to weigh on consumers’ minds. Yet, these issues remain secondary compared to domestic economic concerns, underscoring the primacy of pocketbook issues in shaping sentiment. The survey also revealed a mixed outlook on financial markets. Optimism about stock prices continued to recover, with 45.6% expecting increases over the next year, up from 37.6% two months ago. However, 57% anticipated rising interest rates, the highest share since October 2023, reflecting concerns about tighter monetary conditions.
Despite the overall decline in confidence, some aspects of consumer behavior suggest resilience. Assessments of families’ current financial situations remained solid, though slightly weaker than in May, while expectations for future financial situations reached a four-month high. This divergence indicates that while broader economic concerns loom large, many households feel relatively secure in their personal finances, at least for now. However, the share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months rose slightly, remaining above 2024 levels, signaling heightened awareness of potential economic downturns.
Consumer spending intentions offer further insight into this cautious mindset. Plans to purchase cars held steady at their highest level since December 2024, but home-buying intentions declined, likely reflecting concerns about rising interest rates and affordability. More consumers were undecided about big-ticket purchases overall, suggesting a wait-and-see approach. Appliance-buying plans edged up, while electronics purchases saw a decline. Service spending intentions weakened across most categories, with dining out being a notable exception, alongside motor vehicle services, museum visits, and fitness. Vacation plans remained unchanged, though a shift toward international travel over domestic trips may indicate selective optimism among those with the means to travel abroad.
The broad-based nature of June’s confidence decline—spanning all age groups, nearly all income levels, and political affiliations—points to a shared sense of uncertainty. Republicans experienced the largest drop, perhaps reflecting heightened sensitivity to trade policy shifts or economic rhetoric. Yet, the consistency of concerns across demographics suggests that the challenges facing the economy transcend partisan divides. As Guichard noted, “Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.” This collective unease underscores the need for policymakers to address the root causes of consumer anxiety, particularly around trade and inflation.
The June survey, conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board with a cutoff date of June 18, captures a U.S. economy in transition, marked by an unexpected decline in consumer confidence and an Expectations Index signaling recession risks. Persistent concerns about tariffs, inflation, and prices, alongside a cooling labor market, threaten to further dampen sentiment without meaningful policy interventions. Despite slight optimism in inflation expectations and stock markets, broader pessimism about business conditions, job prospects, and rising interest rates prevails. Consumers’ worries reflect real challenges, yet their resilience in personal financial expectations and selective spending suggests a cautious optimism. Policymakers and businesses must address trade disruptions, stabilize prices, and bolster economic security to restore confidence, balancing immediate relief with long-term strategies to secure the financial future of consumers, the economy’s backbone. The June decline serves as a sobering reminder that economic recovery remains fragile, with an uncertain path ahead.

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