2016 presidential election in the Asian island-state of Taiwan evokes much commentary in the Western press today. Analysts assessed the victory of Tsai Ing-wen, an incumbent chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party. They also look at the defeat of the Nationalists who ruled the island for half a century, and the implications for Taiwanese and Western relations with Beijing's communist leadership.
By IndraStra Global Editorial Team
2016
presidential election in the Asian island-state of Taiwan evokes much
commentary in the Western press today. Analysts assessed the victory of Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwanese general election, the incumbent chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). At the same time, they also look
at the defeat of the Nationalists (KMT) who ruled the island for half a century, and
the implications for Taiwanese and Western relations with Beijing's communist
leadership.
Image Attribute: Madam President-elect Tsai Ing-wen's victory speech
Today’s election
result has shown how Taiwan has taken an important new step in its democratic
evolution. But it may also have inaugurated a period of potentially dangerous
uncertainty in its relations with mainland China. Beijing's recent military
threats toward Taiwan were aimed primarily at defeating Chen, who first entered
politics as an advocate of Taiwanese independence.
Madam President-elect, Tsai Ing-wen, a 59-year-old
lawyer with a PhD from the London School of Economics, Tsai is part-Hakka and
part-Paiwan, an aboriginal Taiwanese ethnic group. From 2000 to 2004, she was
Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan’s government agency for
developing policies on mainland China. She assumed chairmanship of the DPP on
May 20, 2008 - the same day as Ma Ying-jeou took office as the President of the
Republic of China.
Tsai says that
today's victory represents the first kilometer of a road to reform, but her party recognizes that the reforms will not happen in one day, nor will the challenges
Taiwan faces disappear in one day. As a member of the international community,
Taiwan is willing to participate and cooperate internationally, sharing
benefits and responsibilities, she says.
With respect to regional stability, she added that
the future of cross-Straits relations will be based on democratic principles
within the current constitutional framework. Both sides should make sure there
is no “provocation” or “accidents”. Tsai emphasises that the sovereignty of the
Republic of China must be respected, citing the Chou Tzu-yu incident at the end
of her speech. There is a
significant possibility that with Tsai's presidential win, a cross-strait crisis could
ensue, despite Tsai's stated strategy aimed at maintaining the status quo.
Since the Sunflower movement, Taiwanese society has taken an increasingly critical view of political developments and, consequently, the KMT suffered a humiliating defeat in the local elections in November 2014. Recently, the KMT switched their presidential candidate Hung for the current one Chu, primarily because Hung was immensely unpopular due to her pro-China view, which closely resembles those of President Ma. The new presidential candidate Chu has not yet improved KMT’s standing in the polls significantly.
With time, KMT and the DPP have cultivated differences which seem to be irreconcilable. Such differences in their positions are generally demonstrated in three areas.
First,
Cross-Strait relations: Whilst the KMT has accepted the “1992 consensus” as a
foundation for Cross-Strait relations, the DPP has denied the existence of such
a consensus, although they promise to “maintain the status quo” should they
come to power. The issue could be explosive because Chinese President Xi
Jinping has made it clear that “1992 consensus” is the very foundation for
peace and stability between two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Second, the
approach toward the United States: It’s crystal clear that the DPP will
maintain status quo as defined by the US, especially by the US “One China
Policy”, whereas the KMT’s approach leans towards a relationship that is in
Beijing’s favor, given their acceptance of the “1992 consensus”. Such a
division will have different implications to the involvement of the US in
Cross-Strait relations.
Third, Taiwan’s
future: On the one hand, the KMT believes a close economic relationship with
the Mainland is not only necessary but also inevitable, as the irrevocable economic
interdependence with the Mainland China will be essential for Taiwan’s
development and stability. On the other hand, the DPP sees that a closer tie
with China will entrap Taiwan into the process of reunification. Thus, instead
of further development of economic exchange with the Mainland China, they want
to diversify Taiwan’s economic relationship with the region, which would be
seen as a fundamental challenge to Beijing’s “One China Principle” as well as
Washington’s “One China Policy”.
Based on the three
fundamental differences between two competing political parties in Taiwan, the
US position remains strategically ambiguous. Such ambiguity implies more
uncertainty, given the upcoming US presidential campaign in which the China
issue will surely surfaces as a focus of debate. As such, the Taiwan issue will
become more sensitive, not only in the debate of US internal politics, but also
to US-China relations.
The Analysis of Election's Outcome:
The 2016 campaign largely pivoted on economic issues, as growth in Taiwan has slowed dramatically over the past year. Wages have stagnated and housing prices in major cities like Taipei have remained out of the reach of many people.
Chart Attribute:
Nationwide polling for the Taiwan presidential election of 2016,
with polynomial
regression.
Voters also soured on the departing president, Ma Ying-jeou, and his policy of pursuing a closer relationship with China, Taiwan’s giant neighbor, which considers the self-governed island to be a part of its territory with which it must eventually be united.
The Financial
Times explores the election's "challenge for Beijing." It says the
greatest need now is for Taiwan and mainland China to resume talks on future
relations. Chen, it writes, "is keen for improved relations and prepared
to make concessions on trade and investment that were rejected by [his
predecessor]. As long as China does not become too preoccupied with the
doctrinal basis for talks," the editorial adds, "this should be an
opportunity for closer economic relations."
The Financial Times concludes: "It is still too early to know whether China's initially mild response to the election shows this point has been understood. But Beijing should be in no doubt of the damage an over-hasty response would do to its own ultimate objectives."
Chart Attribute:
Nationwide polling for the Taiwan legislator-at-large election (party vote) of
2016, with polynomial
regression.
