Ballots, Battlelines, and a Fractured Republic: Inside South Korea’s Defining Election

By IndraStra Global Editorial Team

South Korea as a nation is bracing up for a snap presidential election on June 3, 2025 — a high-stakes contest set to determine who will helm the country amid a storm of political unrest, economic headwinds, and deep-seated social tensions. The ousting of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, following his controversial six-hour imposition of martial law on December 3, 2024, has left the country wrestling with deep divisions and a leadership vacuum. The next president will inherit a nation polarized by ideology, strained by international pressures, and wrestling with domestic issues ranging from a declining birth rate to gender inequality. With Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party leading polls against Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, the election presents a choice between contrasting visions for South Korea’s future, each carrying its own promises and pitfalls. This moment demands a leader capable of mending a fractured society while addressing complex global and domestic challenges, yet the campaign reveals a cautious approach that risks leaving critical issues unresolved.
Yoon’s martial law declaration, described by Lee Jae-myung as an attempt to “annihilate the opposition and permanently monopolize power,” plunged South Korea into chaos, exposing the fragility of its democratic institutions. The move, cited as a response to “anti-state forces” and North Korean threats, was widely seen as a desperate bid to deflect from Yoon’s domestic political struggles. The fallout was swift: mass protests erupted, parliament impeached him, and on April 4, 2025, the Constitutional Court upheld his removal, cementing his disgrace. The subsequent six months saw three acting presidents—Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, and Labor Minister Lee Ju-ho—navigate a nation rattled by uncertainty. This political instability shook public confidence, dragging the Bank of Korea’s consumer sentiment index to 88.2 in December 2024, its lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, by May 2025, the index rebounded to 101.8, driven by easing uncertainty, a supplementary budget, and optimism about the incoming administration. This recovery, however, is tempered by warnings from a Bank of Korea official: “The uptick partly reflects a base effect following months of subdued sentiment.” The incoming president must sustain this fragile optimism while addressing the root causes of distrust.
Economically, South Korea faces significant headwinds. The first quarter of 2025 saw Asia’s fourth-largest economy contract due to stalled exports and consumption, exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on South Korean goods. These tariffs, part of a broader U.S. policy to address trade imbalances, are under a temporary waiver until July 8, 2025, as Seoul negotiates with Washington. The next president will need to secure favorable terms in these talks while fostering a business-friendly environment to spur growth. Kim Moon-soo, a former labor minister, has positioned himself as an economic steward, promising deregulation and investment incentives to create a “business-friendly environment.” In contrast, Lee Jae-myung advocates using fiscal policy to stimulate the economy and ensure a “fair society,” emphasizing job creation and accountability for those involved in Yoon’s martial law attempt. Polls reflect Lee’s appeal, with a Gallup Korea survey showing him at 49% support compared to Kim’s 35%, though Kim has narrowed the gap since the campaign began on May 12. The economic stakes are high, and the new leader must balance domestic recovery with global trade pressures.
Foreign policy looms large in this election, with North Korea’s nuclear threats and missile provocations casting a long shadow. The past year saw heightened tensions, with both Koreas exchanging propaganda-laden balloons and drones across their border. Lee Jae-myung has pledged to de-escalate these tensions through dialogue and cooperation, criticizing Yoon’s hardline stance for failing to curb anti-North propaganda campaigns. “Peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula are very important,” Lee stated in a televised debate, emphasizing a foundation of military strength and the Seoul-Washington alliance. Kim Moon-soo, however, advocates a tougher approach, proposing a “unique nuclear sharing model” with the U.S. to counter North Korea’s threats, a plan Lee warns could undermine denuclearization efforts. Kim’s call for a “balance of power” and transparent inter-Korean relations contrasts with Lee’s focus on diplomacy, highlighting a fundamental divide in their approaches to national security. Additionally, the next president must navigate South Korea’s delicate balance between its security ally, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China, while maintaining trilateral cooperation with Japan. Lee’s debate remark, “I believe there is no need to unnecessarily antagonise China or Russia,” reflects his cautious diplomacy, a stance that could either stabilize or complicate Seoul’s international relations.
Domestically, South Korea’s declining birth rate of 0.75—one of the world’s lowest—poses a long-term demographic crisis. Neither candidate has outlined a comprehensive plan to address this issue, though Kim’s campaign includes tax incentives for families, a proposal criticized by some as paternalistic. His remarks about women preferring pets over children have further alienated female voters, with Jeong Eun-byeol telling The New York Times, “Women like me will never vote for the People Power Party.” Gender equality, a pressing concern, has been notably absent from the campaign’s forefront, despite women’s pivotal role in the protests that led to Yoon’s impeachment. Young women, galvanized by K-pop-infused activism, denounced Yoon’s martial law and perceived misogyny, yet find their concerns sidelined. South Korea’s gender pay gap, with women earning 31% less than men, and their underrepresentation in legislative (less than 20%) and corporate (14.6%) roles highlight systemic inequities. Lee Jae-myung acknowledges women’s contributions to Yoon’s ousting but remains cautious, wary of alienating conservative male voters. His promises of tougher penalties for gender-based violence and increased corporate transparency on pay gaps fall short of the comprehensive reforms feminist groups demand. Kim’s focus on economic and security issues, coupled with his controversial comments, risks further marginalizing women’s voices. Park Jia’s lament, “We only have poor options in this election,” captures the disillusionment of many women who feel caught between inaction and regression.
Political polarization, deepened by Yoon’s actions, remains a central challenge. Lee Jae-myung attributes the divide to the martial law declaration, proposing constitutional amendments to limit presidential power and introduce run-off elections. “The essence of that martial law attempt was to annihilate the opposition and permanently monopolize power,” he argued, pointing to lingering support for Yoon’s actions as a source of division. Kim Moon-soo, however, accuses Lee of undermining democracy through alleged criminal activities, asking, “How can someone facing five serious charges run for president?” Lee dismisses these charges as “fabricated by a prosecutorial regime,” a nod to Yoon’s past as prosecutor general. Meanwhile, third-placed candidate Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party, polling at 11%, blames both frontrunners for fostering “false narratives and fan-driven politics.” Positioning himself as an outsider, he pledges to restore bipartisan consensus, citing French President Emmanuel Macron as inspiration: “We may only have three seats, but we can trigger structural change.” The failure of Kim to unite with Lee Jun-seok, despite overtures, illustrates the conservative camp’s fragmentation, while Lee Nak-yon’s unexpected endorsement of Kim highlights liberal divisions. Choi Jin of the Presidential Leadership Institute notes, “It seems almost impossible at this point that (Lee) will make a fatal mistake or that (Kim) will pull off something that will touch the heart of the whole country,” suggesting Lee’s lead may hold barring a dramatic shift.
With election day approaching, South Korea faces a defining choice that could reshape the nation's course. The rebound in consumer sentiment to pre-martial law levels signals hope, yet the central bank cautions that this optimism may be fleeting. The new president must heal a polarized society, restore economic stability, and navigate a volatile geopolitical landscape. Lee Jae-myung’s vision of a “real Republic of Korea” emphasizes fairness and dialogue, but his legal troubles and cautious approach to gender issues raise questions about his ability to unify. Kim Moon-soo’s business-friendly and hardline security stance appeals to conservatives but risks alienating key demographics. The absence of robust discourse on gender equality and the sidelining of women’s voices underscore a broader challenge: ensuring inclusivity in a democracy tested by recent crises. On June 3, South Koreans will choose not just a president but a path forward—one that must balance competing priorities to mend a nation still reeling from its past and anxious about its future.
With reporting by The Korea Herald, The New York Times, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal.

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