Kyushu Missile Plan Highlights Japan’s Response to China, North Korea, and Trump-Era Tensions

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: A file photo from Yomiuri Shimbun shows Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missiles stationed in Ishigaki, located in Okinawa Prefecture, as seen in April 2023

Japan’s decision to deploy long-range missiles on its southern island of Kyushu has sparked a complex debate about national security, regional tensions, and the future of its alliance with the United States. This move, driven by concerns over the Trump administration’s ambiguous stance on security pacts and the growing threats posed by China and North Korea, marks a significant shift in Japan’s defense strategy. With a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers, these missiles would be capable of striking targets in North Korea and China’s coastal regions, enhancing Japan’s ability to protect itself in an increasingly volatile part of the world. Scheduled for deployment next year at two existing missile garrisons—Camp Yufuin in Oita and Camp Kengun in Kumamoto, both on Kyushu—these weapons are upgraded versions of the Ground Self-Defense Force’s Type-12 land-to-ship guided missiles. According to reports from Kyodo News agency citing government sources, the missiles are intended to strengthen the defenses of the strategically vital Okinawa island chain, which lies close to Taiwan and serves as a key geopolitical flashpoint.
The decision reflects Japan’s push to develop what it calls “counterstrike capabilities,” a response to the mounting threats from its neighbors. Yoichi Shimada, professor emeritus at Fukui Prefectural University, supports this shift, arguing that it is a logical step given the regional dynamics. “As the threat from China and North Korea has been mounting, it is natural for Japan to counter this with more effective weapons systems,” he said. Shimada advocates for rapid measures, such as the deployment of longer-range missiles, to build a more robust security framework. He sees this not only as a means of self-defense but also as a way to reinforce Japan’s alliance with the United States, particularly in light of demands from the Trump administration for more reciprocal defense arrangements. “Demands from the Trump administration for reciprocal defence arrangements with Japan are not so unreasonable,” Shimada added, suggesting that proactive steps like this could align Japan more closely with American expectations.
The backdrop to this development is a growing unease about the reliability of the United States as an ally. On March 6, President Donald Trump publicly criticized the Japan-US security treaty, calling it nonreciprocal. “We have a great relationship with Japan, but we have an interesting deal with Japan that we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us,” he said, adding, “That’s the way the deal reads … and by the way, they make a fortune with us economically. I actually ask who makes these deals?” Signed in 1951 during the US occupation of Japan following World War II, the treaty reflects a historical imbalance: Japan, constrained by its pacifist constitution—specifically Article 9, imposed by Washington—has long relied on the US for military protection while limiting its own offensive capabilities. Trump’s remarks have reignited questions about whether the US would honor its commitments in a crisis, a concern amplified by his similar criticisms of other allies, including NATO members like Canada and Denmark.

This uncertainty has left some in Japan questioning the alliance’s future. Robert Dujarric, a scholar at Temple University in Tokyo, paints a grim picture. “It is clear to anyone who is watching this carefully that the US-Japan alliance is in bad shape,” he said. “Even if China attacked Japan, there is no guarantee that the US under Trump would do anything. That is a big problem.” For Dujarric, Japan’s missile deployment is just one piece of a broader effort to adapt to a shifting geopolitical landscape. “This is just one part of a gradual increase in Japanese military capacity,” he noted, emphasizing that the country “needs to rethink its security policy” as reliance on the US becomes less certain. The deployment sites on Kyushu, rather than the more provocative Okinawa islands—which stretch to within 110 kilometers of Taiwan and already host shorter-range missile batteries—suggest a careful balancing act. Japan appears to be enhancing its defenses without directly escalating tensions with China, a neighbor it cannot afford to antagonize recklessly.
Yet the implications of this move extend beyond conventional weaponry. Dujarric raises a provocative possibility: if Japan loses faith in US military support, it could “spark debate as to whether to acquire nuclear weapons.” Such a discussion has been largely taboo since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 80 years ago, which left an indelible mark on Japan’s national psyche and reinforced its commitment to pacifism. The prospect of nuclear armament would represent a radical departure from Japan’s postwar identity, but it underscores the gravity of the current moment. The combination of regional threats and doubts about the US alliance is pushing Japan to reconsider long-held assumptions about its security. For Shimada, the missile deployment is a pragmatic step toward self-reliance and a stronger partnership with the US, potentially satisfying Trump’s calls for Japan to shoulder more of the burden. “I think Japan should rapidly take measures such as the deployment of longer-range missiles to develop more robust security,” he reiterated, framing it as a necessary evolution.
The Kyushu deployment, then, is both a practical and symbolic act. The choice of Camp Yufuin and Camp Kengun, already equipped with missile batteries, minimizes logistical challenges while signaling Japan’s intent to bolster its defenses without overstepping into overtly provocative territory like Okinawa. The missiles’ 1,000-kilometer range gives Japan a credible deterrent against North Korea, whose missile tests have long unnerved the region, and China, whose maritime assertiveness continues to grow. Yet the decision also reflects a deeper anxiety about the US-Japan security treaty, now more than seven decades old, and whether it can withstand the pressures of a new era. Trump’s comments have exposed a fault line in the alliance, one that Japan cannot ignore as it navigates its role in an increasingly contested Asia-Pacific.
For now, Japan is proceeding cautiously, enhancing its conventional capabilities while avoiding the nuclear question. The missile deployment is a measured response to immediate threats, but it also hints at a broader transformation. As Dujarric observes, this is part of a “gradual increase” in military capacity, a slow but deliberate shift from the pacifism that has defined Japan since 1945. Whether this will satisfy the Trump administration’s demands for reciprocity or reassure a public wary of militarization remains unclear. What is evident is that Japan finds itself at a crossroads, compelled to strengthen its defenses amid regional instability and an alliance that feels less certain than ever. The missiles on Kyushu are a concrete step forward, but they also raise larger questions about how Japan will define its security—and its identity—in the years ahead.
With reporting by The Guardian

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