Oil Drops 2% as China Data Raises Demand Concerns

Saturday, August 17, 2024 Edit this post

By Chetna Gill

Cover Image Attribute: A file photo of a gas station employee refueling a vehicle in Shijiazhuang, North China's Hebei Province. / Source: Global Times
Cover Image Attribute: A file photo of a gas station employee refueling a vehicle in Shijiazhuang, North China's Hebei Province. / Source: Global Times

Global crude oil prices experienced a nearly 2% decline in the most recent session, with Brent crude slipping below $80 per barrel. This drop was driven by diminished expectations for demand growth from China, a key player in the global oil market. Despite the decline, oil prices remained relatively stable throughout the week, influenced by Wall Street’s revised forecasts for a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

Specifically, Brent crude futures decreased by $1.36, or 1.7%, settling at $79.68 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by $1.51, or 1.9%, to $76.65. The previous week saw Brent crude closing at $79.66 and WTI at $76.84. In the domestic market, crude oil futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) ended 0.6% lower at ₹6,448 per barrel.

What factors are affecting crude oil prices?


Crude oil prices have been pressured by recent economic data from China, which revealed a slowdown in the economy during July. New home prices in China fell at their fastest rate in nine years, industrial output decelerated, and unemployment rose. These indicators have raised concerns among traders about a potential decline in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. This anxiety was exacerbated by a significant reduction in crude processing rates by Chinese refineries last month due to weak fuel demand.

Adding to the pressure, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, attributing the change to China's economic weakness. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also adjusted its 2025 oil demand forecasts downward in response to the same issue. Analysts noted that the oil markets have been particularly volatile this week, with fears of potential supply disruptions from a broader conflict in the Middle East contrasting with the demand concerns arising from China's slowing economy. The lower liquidity in the market, influenced by many investors being on holiday, has also contributed to this volatility.

At the beginning of the week, oil futures saw a rally as traders anticipated possible retaliation by Iran against Israel following the killing of a Hamas leader. However, as no immediate action was taken by Iran, some of the risk premium was removed from the market, refocusing attention on demand issues. Meanwhile, a new round of ceasefire talks regarding Gaza has commenced in Qatar but remains stalled, with mixed signals from the parties involved. Despite these geopolitical tensions, oil prices have found some support from positive economic data out of the US, including stronger retail sales and a decrease in new jobless claims, which have renewed optimism about economic growth in the major oil-consuming country. Oil prices are expected to remain unstable until the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in its upcoming September meeting.

What is the future direction of prices?


Oil prices fell to $76.83 per barrel on Wednesday, driven by expectations that Iran might refrain from military action against Israel and an unexpected increase of 1.4 million barrels in US oil inventories. According to Kaynat Chainwala, AVP of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, the market’s response was influenced by these factors, which contributed to the price drop.

The situation between Israel and Iran remains a critical focus for markets. Chainwala highlighted that President Biden has sent three senior Middle East advisers to the region this week in an effort to manage and potentially delay any military retaliation by Iran or Hezbollah against Israel. This move reflects ongoing concerns about escalating tensions in the region.

Additionally, analysts have noted that the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts in upcoming policy meetings has supported crude oil prices, although these gains are tempered by mixed economic data from China and the unexpected increase in US oil inventories. Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd., pointed out that China's industrial production grew at a slower rate than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from the previous month’s 5%. Given these conditions, Kalantri forecasts continued volatility in crude oil prices, with support levels at $76.30-$75.60 and resistance at $77.50-$78.20. In INR terms, crude oil support is seen at ₹6,410-₹6,350, with resistance at ₹6,555-₹6,610.
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IndraStra Global: Oil Drops 2% as China Data Raises Demand Concerns
Oil Drops 2% as China Data Raises Demand Concerns
By Chetna Gill
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https://www.indrastra.com/2024/08/oil-drops-2-as-china-data-raises-demand.html
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