World Bank: US Economy's Strength to Drive Global Growth of 2.6% in 2024

Via Syndicated Feed

World Bank: US Economy's Strength to Drive Global Growth of 2.6% in 2024

The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast to 2.6% for this year, driven by continued growth in the United States. This updated outlook is an increase from the 2.4% growth predicted in January for 2024 and matches the 2.6% expansion in 2023.

However, the World Bank warned that global growth remains slow by historical standards, with the poorest countries burdened by heavy debts and high interest rates, and rising trade barriers threatening global prosperity. Additionally, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are putting extra pressure on regional economies.

The upgraded outlook is largely due to stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S., which accounts for 80% of the increase. The World Bank now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.5% in 2024, the same as in 2023, but significantly higher than the 1.6% forecasted in January.

"U.S. growth is exceptional," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, in an interview with The Associated Press before releasing its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

The World Bank, consisting of 189 member nations, aims to reduce poverty and improve living standards by providing grants and low-rate loans to developing economies.

From January to March, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of just 1.3%, the slowest in nearly two years. Kose noted that the World Bank's forecast accounted for this first-quarter slowdown, which was primarily due to temporary factors such as a surge in imports and a reduction in business inventories. Despite this, the core components of economic growth — consumer spending and business investment — remained strong.

Both the global and U.S. economies have shown unexpected resilience despite high interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to combat the high inflation that began in 2021.

Despite the World Bank’s upgraded forecast, global growth remains sluggish, at half a percentage point below the 2010-2019 average. Although inflation has significantly decreased from 7.2% in 2022 to 4.9% last year and is expected to be 3.5% in 2024, it still exceeds central banks' targets. This suggests that central bank policymakers might be hesitant to lower interest rates from their current high levels.

However, this cautious approach has its own risks, particularly that high borrowing rates could slow economic growth excessively.

“There are consequences of keeping interest rates elevated for a longer period,” Kose said. “You end up with slower growth. We need to avoid prolonged low economic growth worldwide.”

He warned that the world could become "stuck in the slow lane."

Many countries are already experiencing strain. The World Bank expects emerging markets and developing countries to grow collectively by 4% this year, down from 4.2% in 2023. In many cases, their population growth outpaces economic growth, leading to a reduced annual income growth per person to 3% this year through 2026, compared to the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is facing challenges with a collapsing real estate market and weak consumer confidence. Its economy is projected to slow to 4.8% this year from 5.2% in 2023.

In Latin America, growth is expected to decline from 2.2% last year to 1.8% in 2024. The World Bank forecasts sub-Saharan Africa's economy to grow by 3.5%, a modest increase from 3% last year.

The 20 European countries using the euro, impacted by Russia’s war against Ukraine, are projected to achieve 0.7% growth in 2024, nearly double their 0.4% growth in 2023.

Japan’s economic growth, hindered by weak consumer spending and declining exports, is expected to slow to 0.7% this year from 1.9% in 2023.

Last year, countries worldwide imposed a record number of trade restrictions, partly driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and China. As a result, global trade barely grew by 0.1% last year and is forecast to increase by just 2.5% in 2024.

The World Bank expresses concern that declining trade will hinder global growth.

“We would like to solve those problems,” Kose said, “by talking to each other and finding common ground” rather than imposing trade barriers.

With reporting by Associate Press (AP News)

IndraStra Global Staff has not edited this story, which is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.

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IndraStra Global: World Bank: US Economy's Strength to Drive Global Growth of 2.6% in 2024
World Bank: US Economy's Strength to Drive Global Growth of 2.6% in 2024
Via Syndicated Feed
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