Xi's G20 No-Show: Analysts Discuss Absence as Tactic

Cover Image Attribute: G20 illuminations in New Delhi on August 28, 2023 / Source: ANI According to experts, the upcoming G20 summit in New ...

Cover Image Attribute: G20 illuminations in New Delhi on August 28, 2023 / Source: ANI

According to experts, the upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi, set to begin this Saturday, is poised to be dominated by the absence of China's leader, Xi Jinping, as efforts to address pressing global issues such as climate change and the Russia-Ukraine conflict take the forefront.
China's explanation for Xi's nonattendance has been limited. In a concise one-sentence announcement on their website this Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared that Premier Li Qiang would represent the country in Xi's place. During a subsequent press briefing on the same day, ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning provided scant additional information, merely stating that China has consistently attached great importance to and actively participated in G20 events.
Analysts highlight that Xi's choice to skip the summit raises questions and underscores the evolving priorities in Beijing's foreign policy agenda. Notably, his absence means missing opportunities to engage with other global leaders at the highest level and enhance international relations.
Moritz Rudolf, a fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, observed that this decision also reflects the changing emphasis in China's foreign policy agenda, which now places greater importance on engaging with developing nations. Rudolf explained, "[From] the BRICS Summit and other diplomatic events, including the China-Central Asia Summit in May and Xi’s trip to the Middle East, we can try to derive the priority for China’s foreign policy," highlighting the focus on the Global South.
Furthermore, he pointed out that the G20 Summit is not the central focus of China's foreign policy, as it may yield little benefits for the nation. Instead, China is more inclined to prioritize the upcoming Belt and Road Forum, marking its 10th anniversary. Rudolf stated, "The priority of China’s foreign policy is not at the G20 Summit as it’s not the forum where China could benefit that much from. It’s easier for them to prioritize the upcoming Belt and Road Forum, where they will mark the 10th anniversary."

Prioritization

Since assuming power, Xi Jinping has maintained a perfect attendance record at G20 summits for over a decade now. However, this year, Xi's international travels have seen a significant reduction despite China's relaxation of strict COVID-19 measures and the commencement of his unconventional third term as president.
Up to this point, Xi has ventured out of China on just two occasions. One trip took him to Moscow in March to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the more recent one was to participate in the BRICS Summit held in South Africa. Both of these destinations are considered friendly to China.
According to Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, Xi's foreign visits, even for multilateral forums, hinge on the existence of a relatively positive bilateral relationship between China and the host country. Notable instances include Xi's presence at the G20 Summit in Indonesia and his participation in the APEC Summit in Thailand in 2022, both hosted by countries with which China maintains favorable relations.
Analysts, including Sun, believe that the unresolved tensions between China and India played a pivotal role in Xi's decision to skip the G20 Summit. Sun explained that India needs to cooperate more with China from the Chinese perspective. Beijing has voiced concerns that India is exploiting G20 and related meetings to assert its territorial claims in disputed areas. The release of a new map by Beijing last week, highlighting China's claims to disputed territories, further strained relations, leading to a diplomatic protest from New Delhi.
Beyond the India-China tensions, some experts speculate that the United States-led efforts to counter China and Washington's recent military support for Taiwan may have influenced Xi's choice to forgo the G20 Summit. Zhiqun Zhu, an authority on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, noted that President Biden's visits to India and Vietnam were perceived as attempts to encircle China in Beijing. Additionally, Beijing expressed alarm at the increased military aid provided by Washington to Taiwan.

Assumptions

The response to Xi's decision to skip the G20 Summit has elicited varying reactions among world leaders. U.S. President Joe Biden expressed disappointment upon hearing the news. At the same time, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar indicated that Xi's absence would not impact the efforts of G20 leaders in generating a communique.
While some observers view this as a missed opportunity, others believe that China's choice not to engage with specific countries is a deliberate strategy aimed at influencing their behavior. For instance, if the objective is to induce changes in U.S. behavior, some argue that the fact that Washington has dispatched four Cabinet members to Beijing since June may be seen as a positive sign that China's strategy is yielding results, as noted by Sun from the Stimson Center during an interview with VOA.
The application of this approach to the APEC Leaders Summit, hosted by Washington in San Francisco, remains to be determined. Discussions about a possible meeting on the sidelines of the summit in November are ongoing. Sun mentioned that Xi's participation may hinge on Washington's decision to permit Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee to attend the event.
In July, The Washington Post reported that the White House had chosen to deny Lee a visa. Sun stated, "If John Lee is denied a visa, the Chinese will see this as a major loss of face."
With roughly two months until the APEC Summit, Sun emphasized that a crucial indicator of Xi's potential involvement would be whether Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Washington to pave the way for the occasion. She stated, "If Wang goes to Washington, that’s a strong signal that Xi will attend the APEC Summit."

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