"Pattern-of-Life Intelligence" Used by CIA to Hunt Zawahiri: NYT Report

PoL analysis can be applied to study the behavior of human and non-human entities in various contexts.

Cover Image Attribute: The safe house was hit by the drone strike before green tarps covered it. In the box: al-Zawahiri. / Source: New York Post

According to a New York Times (NYT) reportAyman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al Qaeda, liked to "read alone" early in the morning on the balcony of his safe house in Kabul. This "pattern-of-life intelligence" a.k.a "PoL intelligence" eventually provided the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) with the opportunity to carry out a precision strike that resulted in the death of one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. Zawahiri, who played a crucial part in the 9/11 attacks and later founded Al-regional Qaeda's affiliate for the Indian subcontinent, was assassinated by a US drone strike on Saturday evening.


Once intelligence agencies confirmed the location of Zawahiri's safe house in Spring 2022, "the CIA followed the playbook it wrote during the hunt for (Osama) Bin Laden. The agency built a model of the site and sought to learn everything about it."


According to the report, Biden was briefed by CIA director William Burns and other intelligence officials on July 1 and shown a replica of the safe house.


On July 25, Biden authorized the CIA to conduct the airstrike. And on August 1 (Monday), he announced that Zawahiri, who took over the reins of Al-Qaeda after the killing of Osama bin Laden 11 years ago, was killed in an American drone strike with a Hellfire missile, which is "designed to kill a single person."


"Senior Taliban leaders occasionally met at the house, but American officials do not know how many knew that the Haqqanis were hiding al-Zawahri. If some senior Taliban officials did not know that the Haqqanis had allowed al-Zawahri to return, his killing could drive a wedge between the groups," the report said, citing independent analysts.


Additionally, it said that Zawahiri's connections to the leaders of the Haqqani network "led US intelligence officials to the safe house" where he was hiding. According to the report, it was believed that Zawahiri had been hiding in an area of Pakistan that borders Afghanistan for several years. However, the reason for Zawahiri's return to Afghanistan is still unknown. Zawahiri's family has relocated to a secure residence in Kabul after the United States military pulled out of Afghanistan.


NOTE: Despite its widespread application in the study of intelligence and its assay groups, the idea of "Pattern of Life" (PoL) intelligence does not yet have a clear and well-established definition. PoL analysis can be applied to study the behavior of human and non-human entities in various contexts. At the moment, human assets generate PoL intelligence, which is an activity that requires a lot of time and frequently results in a collection of fragmented data. 


For more details on it, please download the following paper;


R. Craddock, D. Watson, and W. Saunders, "Generic Pattern of Life and behaviour analysis," 2016 IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support (CogSIMA), 2016, pp. 152-158, DOI: 10.1109/COGSIMA.2016.7497803.



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IndraStra Global: "Pattern-of-Life Intelligence" Used by CIA to Hunt Zawahiri: NYT Report
"Pattern-of-Life Intelligence" Used by CIA to Hunt Zawahiri: NYT Report
PoL analysis can be applied to study the behavior of human and non-human entities in various contexts.
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