Putin's Fate is in the Hand of NATO

Sunday, March 20, 2022 Edit this post

By IndraStra Global Editorial Team

Cover Image Attribute: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on March 18, 2022. / Source: Sergei Guneyev / AFP
Cover Image Attribute: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on March 18, 2022.  / Source: Sergei Guneyev / AFP

As Russia's war in Ukraine spirals out of control, speculation grows that President Vladimir Putin's blunder in the form of Ukrainian invasion may be his undoing. Many experts have predicted that frustration with the war's costs and crippling economic sanctions will lead to his downfall. 

Despite Russia's limited successes on the ground in Ukraine, Putin is on the verge of a strategic defeat in a war that no one had expected him to lose in the first place. And currently, only NATO's intervention in Ukraine could change his fate. It would be such a gift for him that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it and galvanize as well as mobilize the common Russian citizens' sentiments against the West.

In the past, Polish leaders have pressed their NATO and EU allies to strengthen ties with Ukraine, warning of the danger of Russian aggression, only to be dismissed as paranoid. And, at the same time, Ukraine also kept an aspiration to join NATO for years. However, even as the ongoing war devastates the former Soviet country, the country's chances of joining NATO remain slim. Finally, Russian action has now proved both of them entirely right.

Last Friday, on March 18, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that Warsaw would make a formal request to NATO's next summit to send a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. According to Kaczynski, the presence of a peacekeeping force with Ukraine's consent would not serve as a pretext for further hostilities. Earlier, Poland has offered its MiG 29 jets to be used by Ukraine's air force which was rejected by the US and other NATO members. And, these are precisely what Putin might want. To amass NATO forces in Ukraine or some kind of direct NATO involvement, in order to ensure his own survival.

On the same day, i.e., March 18, Putin's administration held a concert (amid a wave of anti-war protests in the country) at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow that marked the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea is dubbed as a "manufactured display" of patriotism. While the courage of individual Russian protesters is not in question, it is futile to talk of a significant opposition movement until we see anti-war rallies attracting hundreds of thousands. At present, there is no indication that this is likely to happen.

For further reading


Putin's Russia in the Making of New International Order - An English School Perspective by Otabek Akromov (2018), IndraStra Papers, ISBN 9781983343599. Available at Amazon and Google Books

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IndraStra Global: Putin's Fate is in the Hand of NATO
Putin's Fate is in the Hand of NATO
By IndraStra Global Editorial Team
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