At the moment it is very much impossible to give any good prognosis of this situation. Russia, if not attack Georgia again, it will use all the levers of pressure within the government and military establishments to secure a reliable rear and establish uninterrupted supply lines and communication with Armenia, We can not ignore the fact that Russian troops could occupy the territory at the Armenian-Turkish border. In this situation, the Turks will be under attack from two sides - the Syria and the entire South Caucasus.
By Lt. Col. Merab Surguladze
Georgian Army (Retd.)
Recent events in the Middle East and in particular to the destruction of the Russian Su-24 by the Turkish Air Force F-16s and just after that followed the destruction of the Russian helicopter which was sent for a rescue mission that resulted in to the death of a Russian pilot and a Marine. This could possibly lead to extremely negative consequences, not only for this region but overall Syria and in neighboring countries.
Image Attribute: Russian Air Force
Sukhoi Su-34s / Source: Mil.ru (Creative Commons)
One can argue
– who is to blame in all of this?, but the fact remains that the certain steps were to be taken which can lead to a new conflict that could be the beginning of a
global confrontation and ultimately a war. Questions continues - What Putin is seeking in the Middle East? What
are the Russians doing in the Middle East? The downing of a Russian jet by
Turkish F-16s raises questions about Russian ambitions and goals in the region,
with President Obama and President Hollande of France outlining changes Russia
should make to its military strategy in Syria and to its position vis-a-vis the
Islamic State. Perhaps the first and obvious point is that Russian military
power is being exercised to keep Bashar Assad in his present position as
president of Syria, a post that has secured Russia naval presence in the
eastern Mediterranean and an air base in Latakia.
But this is
merely one aspect of a strategic plan. Without much fanfare Egypt and Russia
signed a nuclear agreement, which along with a $2 billion arms deal, seals the
return of Russia to Egypt for the first time in four decades. It also represents
the eclipse of American preeminence.
In the wake of
the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Russia was forced out of the Middle East, but as a
consequence of the P5+1 agreement and a precipitous U.S. retreat, it is the
emerging strong horse in the region. In fact, the cost of the Egyptian Dabaa Nuclear Power Station will be borne by a Russian through a loan spanning over 35 years, ultimately giving Russia a
foothold in Egypt for the foreseeable future. Deals signed with Mr. Assad for
the construction of two nuclear plants were also one kind of long-term arrangements.
Russian
engagement is not driven only by military concerns, albeit the proximity of
these Muslim nations to the southern tier of Russia where many Muslims reside
should not be underestimated. As I see it, hard currency in Russia is derived
from one and only one primary source i.e., natural gas. Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware
of the natural gas veins which were discovered in the Mediterranean off the coast of
Syria. Russians also knows that a Turkish pipeline, once completed in 2017 will
challenge the virtual monopoly of Russia in maintaining the flow of natural gas to Europe.
Hence the tension with Turkey. It is not merely the question of toppling Mr.
Assad as the Turks would like or keeping him in authority, but the questionable factor is whether
the natural gas monopoly can be sustained in near future?
There is
another dimension to this complicated picture. Mr. Putin has said in several
interviews that the disassembling of the Soviet Union was “humiliating.” He has
noted that empire and the glory of national destiny can be reacquired. This
goal can be achieved in one way: undermining the dominant role of the United
States on the global stage. In Mr. Obama, Putin has found a willing and acquiescent
partner.
Mr. Obama
contends a retreat in an appropriate stance since U.S. engagement either
exacerbates an already difficult situation or forces a long-term commitment, the
nation is unwilling to endure. As a consequence, the U.S. involvement in the
Middle East which served as a balance wheel — however precarious — has been
dislodged leaving a vacuum in its place, a vacuum Mr. Putin has been pleased to
fill, ready to fill. From Mr. Putin’s perspective, this is a major gift. A nation suffering
from the effects of a stagnant economy, longevity rates declining, alcoholism
on the rise and, despite claims to the contrary, a second-rate military, has
been accorded the gift of empire and international standing. Russia has risen
from despair to the height of Middle East power broker. From al Sisi to
Netanyahu, from Khomeini to Salman, one meets with Mr. Putin to determine the
fate of their respective nations.
Of course,
with these words, we can agree, but it should be borne in mind
that a confrontation with Turkey may have more serious consequences. If Turkey
had not taken place in connection with the destruction of the Russian bombers,
it could have taken place later, when the Syrian army with the support of the Russian
Air Force would come out on the Syrian-Turkish border.
Let’s see:
what could Russia do against Turkey and what Turkey might do against Russia.
Russia, with the support of the Syrian army can actually block the
Syrian-Turkish border and cut off the Turkmens who are living in northern Syria
near the Turkish border. That Turkey can not avoid, because he believes their
Turkic-speaking people and fully supports them. It is like Russia who supported
Russians in Ukraine and Ukrain lost this territories! Russia may also support
the Kurds living in Turkey, with where they live about 40 million. Russia can
start a conflict on the territory by the hands of the Kurds inside Turkey. It
will be indirect military action against Turkey. In this context, NATO will not
be able to intervene in the conflict, as it will be internal. Such was the case
with France in Algeria and then the military alliance intervened in the
conflict, because it considered internal. Russia could also destabilize the
situation in the South Caucasus – it can not complete the construction of the
Turkish pipeline, which will pass through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. This
construction should be completed in 2017 and will cast serious doubt on
Russia’s monopoly on gas supplies to Europe. What Turkey can answer? Yes, it
can support Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia regarding the Karabakh
conflict. Then begins an armed conflict that may involve several countries. And
the outbreak of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan may lead to a new
war, which unfold from the South Caucasus and will affect Iran and the Middle
East. The deterioration of relations between the two regional powers after the
incident with the downed Russian plane in Armenia also raises concerns that small
Armenia can be involved in a growing confrontation.
Fears exists in no
small part due to the fact that Armenia as a country is a dominant Russian military fortress. And any
contribution through this fortress to the conflict will lead to an aggravation of the situation
in the Armenian-Turkish border. Yerevan also fear that the diplomatic and
political actions of Turkey may cause aggravation of the situation around the disputed Karabakh region. Armenia for several decades in a state of “no peace, no war”
with Azerbaijan – the closest ally and strategic partner of Turkey due to Turkic heritage.
Violations of
the ceasefire on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan takes place
regularly, and in the last few months – with the profound use of heavy artillery. In
this connection I would like to raise the question of how Russia is
going to rally and implement the support for its ally – Armenia? The
answer to this question is very simple – through the territory of Georgia. After all, the
Russian railway troops has already restored "before-the-end" of the railway line till Inguri River in Abkhazia, also the construction of a highway in Dagestan to the
border with Georgia is under construction, which is called Avar- Georgian Highway and recently Chechen
President Ramzan Kadyrov said that once the highway gets completed through Chechnya to the border with Georgia, he is going to seek finance for the construction of the new railway line. Thus, the
supply lines between Armenian and Russian armed forces should remain uninterrupted. As for Georgia, its government did not take any serious steps to
protect its territory from a new invasion, which may occur with the escalation of confrontation between Turkey and Russia. Recently the Minister of Energy of
Georgia K. Kaladze made a very serious remark that Georgia will receive gas
from Russia, which led to the arrival of President of Azerbaijan
Ilhan Aliyev in Tbilisi. One doesn't need to explain signs to wise men.
At the moment it is very much impossible to give any good prognosis of this
situation. Russia, if not attack Georgia again, it will use all the levers of
pressure within the government and military establishments to secure a reliable rear and establish
uninterrupted supply lines and communication with Armenia, We can not ignore the fact that Russian
troops could occupy the territory at the Armenian-Turkish border. In this
situation, the Turks will be under attack from two sides - the Syria and the entire
South Caucasus.
About The Author:
Lt. Col. Merab Surguladze Georgian Army (Retd.) Currently, Head of GCSSI Middle East Section and Military Section. He is a veteran of several conflicts, former senior officer of J5 Department of General Staff of Georgian Army and performed his duty as a specialist of Strategic Planning in Caucasus Region.
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Publication Details:
This article was originally published at Georgia Caucasus Strategic Studies Institute on December 8, 2015. All Rights Reserved by the Original Publisher.
