By Chetna Gill
India stands at a pivotal moment in its demographic and social evolution, as illuminated by two recent reports: the United Nations Population Fund’s State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis and the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2025. These documents paint a complex picture of a nation grappling with a declining fertility rate, a youthful and working-age population, and persistent gender disparities. With India’s population now estimated at 146.39 crore, surpassing China’s 141.61 crore to become the world’s most populous nation, and its ranking slipping to 131st out of 146 countries in global gender parity, the country faces intertwined challenges and opportunities. This moment calls for a nuanced examination of how India can harness its demographic potential while addressing structural inequalities to forge a path toward sustainable progress.
The UN report reveals that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dipped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, signaling a significant shift in population dynamics. This decline aligns with India’s own projections, as the 2021 Sample Registration System reported a TFR of 2.0, noting that the replacement level had been attained nationally. The TFR, which measures the number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years, indicates that India’s population is stabilizing, with growth projected to peak at 170 crore in about 40 years before declining. This trajectory offers a window of opportunity, as 68% of India’s population is of working age (15-64 years), and 26% falls within the 10-24 age bracket, indicating a youthful demographic that could drive economic growth if adequately supported.
However, the UN report emphasizes that the “real fertility crisis” lies not in overpopulation or underpopulation but in the lack of reproductive agency—the ability of individuals to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and family planning. This perspective reframes the demographic challenge as one of empowerment rather than mere numbers. For India, where cultural and social norms often influence family decisions, ensuring reproductive agency requires expanding access to education, healthcare, and contraception, particularly for women. The report’s call for prioritizing individual choice resonates with India’s ongoing efforts to improve maternal and child health, though gaps remain, especially in rural and marginalized communities.
Life expectancy projections further complicate India’s demographic landscape. The UN report estimates that, as of 2025, life expectancy at birth is 71 years for men and 74 years for women, with the elderly population (65 and older) currently at 7% but expected to rise. This aging trend, coupled with a declining TFR, foreshadows a future where India must balance the needs of a youthful workforce with those of an expanding elderly population. The delayed decennial Census, now slated for completion by March 2027, exacerbates planning challenges, as the last comprehensive count was in 2011. Accurate data is critical for tailoring policies to these shifting demographics, from pension systems to healthcare infrastructure.
Parallel to these population dynamics is India’s struggle with gender parity, as highlighted by the Global Gender Gap Report 2025. India’s slide to 131st place, with a parity score of 64.1%, reflects persistent structural barriers despite incremental gains. The report measures gender parity across four dimensions: Economic Participation and Opportunity, Educational Attainment, Health and Survival, and Political Empowerment. India’s progress in Economic Participation and Opportunity, where its score rose by 0.9 percentage points to 40.7%, is driven by a slight increase in parity for estimated earned income, from 28.6% to 29.9%. Yet, labor force participation rates for women remain stagnant, emphasizing the challenge of integrating women into the workforce amid cultural expectations and economic constraints.
In Educational Attainment, India scores 97.1%, reflecting gains in female literacy and tertiary education enrollment. These improvements are encouraging, as education is a cornerstone of empowerment and economic mobility. However, the benefits of education are not fully translating into economic or political spheres, suggesting systemic barriers beyond access to schooling. In Health and Survival, India records higher parity, driven by improvements in sex ratio at birth and healthy life expectancy, though the report notes a concerning reduction in overall life expectancy for both men and women. This aligns with the UN’s life expectancy projections and highlights the need for robust healthcare systems to sustain these gains.
The most troubling dimension is Political Empowerment, where India’s score has declined. Female representation in Parliament dropped from 14.7% to 13.8%, and the share of women in ministerial roles fell from 6.5% to 5.6%. These setbacks move India further from its highest recorded levels in this subindex, contrasting sharply with regional peers like Bangladesh, which jumped 75 ranks to 24th globally, driven by gains in political and economic participation. The global gender gap, closed at 68.8%, is projected to take 123 years to achieve full parity at current rates, a sobering reminder of the scale of the challenge. As Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, notes, “At a time of heightened global economic uncertainty and a low growth outlook combined with technological and demographic change, advancing gender parity represents a key force for economic renewal.” For India, closing this gap is not just a moral imperative but an economic necessity.
The interplay between India’s demographic trends and gender disparities reveals both synergies and tensions. A youthful, working-age population could fuel economic growth, but only if women, who constitute half the population, are fully integrated into the workforce and decision-making processes. The UN report’s emphasis on reproductive agency dovetails with the need for gender parity, as empowering women to make choices about their bodies and families can enhance their economic and political participation. Conversely, persistent gender gaps in leadership—where women hold only 28.8% of top global positions despite comprising 41.2% of the workforce—mirror India’s own struggles and suggest that systemic change is required to unlock this potential.
India’s demographic dividend, characterized by its large working-age population, is a double-edged sword. Without adequate investment in education, skills, and job creation, this dividend could become a liability, particularly for women who face disproportionate barriers to employment. The slight improvement in earned income parity is a step forward, but the stagnant labor force participation rate indicates that many women remain sidelined. Cultural norms, lack of childcare, and workplace biases often discourage women from entering or staying in the workforce, a challenge that policies like maternity benefits and gender quotas could address but have yet to fully resolve.
The decline in political representation is particularly disheartening, as it limits women’s ability to shape policies that affect them, from reproductive health to economic reforms. The drop in parliamentary and ministerial representation reflects a broader resistance to institutional change, even as education and health metrics improve. Bangladesh’s leap in the rankings demonstrates that rapid progress is possible with concerted efforts, such as quotas for women in politics and targeted economic programs. India’s own reservation policies for women in local governance have shown promise, but scaling these to national levels remains a political challenge.
Health and survival metrics, while improved, also highlight vulnerabilities. The reduction in life expectancy, despite gains in healthy life expectancy, suggests that India must strengthen healthcare access, particularly for non-communicable diseases that affect aging populations. Women’s longer life expectancy (74 years versus 71 for men) means they will increasingly dominate the elderly demographic, necessitating gender-sensitive social security and healthcare systems. The UN’s projection of a rising elderly population reinforces the urgency of these reforms.
The UN and WEF reports converge on a shared insight: empowerment—whether reproductive, economic, or political—is central to addressing India’s challenges. The UN’s focus on reproductive agency as the “real fertility crisis” aligns with the WEF’s call for gender parity as a driver of economic renewal. For India, these goals are inseparable. Empowering women to make choices about their families can free them to pursue education and careers, while closing gender gaps in leadership and employment can amplify the benefits of a youthful workforce. Yet, the data also reveals the scale of the task: a TFR below replacement level, an aging population, and a gender gap ranking among South Asia’s lowest demand comprehensive, long-term strategies.
India’s path forward requires integrating these insights into policy. Investments in education and skills must target women and marginalized groups to capitalize on the demographic dividend. Economic reforms should prioritize flexible work arrangements, childcare support, and anti-discrimination measures to boost female labor force participation. Political reforms, such as national-level gender quotas, could reverse the decline in representation, while healthcare systems must prepare for an aging population with gender-specific needs. Above all, India needs timely and accurate data, which the delayed Census hinders. Completing the Census by 2027 is critical for evidence-based planning.
While India faces this critical demographic moment, it should acknowledge that managing population growth and promoting gender parity go hand in hand. A nation of 146.39 crore, poised to grow before declining, holds immense potential, but only if every individual—man or woman—has the agency to contribute. The UN’s call for reproductive freedom and informed choices and the WEF’s evidence that “economies that have made decisive progress towards parity are positioning themselves for stronger, more innovative and more resilient economic progress” offer a clear directive. India’s future hinges on empowering its people, not just counting them, and ensuring that half its population is not left behind in the pursuit of progress.
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