By Cmdr. Daniel Dolan, USN (Retired) The increased presence of Russian forces in Syria has added another layer of complexity to...
By Cmdr. Daniel Dolan, USN (Retired)
The increased
presence of Russian forces in Syria has added another layer of complexity to an
already confusing array of warring factions—a good estimate is that 18 to 20
factions now are fighting for one cause or another in Syria.
The Russians
assuming an active role in the Syrian battle space took the United States by
surprise. For many American political, military, and media voices it is evident
that Russia’s recent actions struck a nerve.One suspects
that the latent Cold War conditioning of Americans over 40 years of age
resurfaces whenever Russia does something that reminds us of the bipolar world
we once wrestled to control. This brief analysis will look for reasons why the
Russians are in Syria, and what it might mean for the fight against ISIS. The
perspectives of both Russia and the United States will be examined.
While some in
America worry that the Russians will soon embark on a conquest of the Middle
East, the fact is that the Russians are not new to Syria. The first point to
recognize is that Russia is not invading Syria; the latter has long been an
ally of Russia (and its former Soviet self). The importance of Syria, and a
keeping a toehold in the Mediterranean, is underscored by the fact that the
Syrian port of Tartus was the only foreign military base maintained by Russia
after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Russian arms
sales to Syria, and regular port visits by Russian vessels, have continued
since the 1970s. It is important to note that every other foreign military
outpost of the Soviet empire was abandoned in the early 1990s, but that one
remained. One can only conclude that this relationship, and geographic
location, was significant enough that it was preserved and maintained by
post-Soviet Russia.
Second, the
Syrian military has almost exclusively used Russian hardware for more than 60
years. The Soviets first began supplying MiG aircraft to Syria in the 1950s.
The presence of Russian aircraft flown by Russian pilots is something new, and
one would assume they will perform better than the remnants of the Syrian
government forces. But another way to look at this is, the tanks, air-defense
weapons, and armor delivered to Syria by Russia in recent weeks are a resupply
mission to shore up the eroding capabilities of Assad’s forces. The mountain of
Russian weapons that were in Syria (and Syria had an impressive order of battle
before this conflict) have been destroyed or damaged. The anti-Assad forces
have littered the countryside with the burned out hulks of made-in-Russia
military hardware.
The Russian
forces that venture outside of the wire will confront the same gauntlet of IEDs
and RPGs as the Syrian government forces. They, like Americans in Afghanistan
and Iraq, are not immune or invulnerable to armor-piercing weapons. Despite the
fear among some in America, Russia is not going to “show us how it’s done” and
defeat Daech (ISIS). But it may tip the balance enough to keep Assad in power
long enough to try to broker a solution that will allow Russia to keep its
toehold in the Mediterranean. This, and the desire to bolster public opinion in
the motherland, is where its national interest really lies.
Vladimir Putin’s
desire to make Russians feel proud about engaging in Syria is working—for now.
It is important to take a moment to appreciate Russia’s demographic context:
From 1990–2013 Russia’s population shrank by about 600,000 people a year.
That’s 23 straight years of a shrinking population. Additionally, Russia’s
aging population has a life expectancy and quality of life that lags well below
the developing world. On top of that ailing demographic situation, the drop in
oil prices has resulted in an economic recession in Russia.
Bold actions by
political leaders often have a short-term positive impact on the majority of
the home audience. Putin has mastered the move of fanning Russian passions and
distracting the population from their problems. But the initial spike in
positive opinion can backfire just as fast. Russia is not immune to the risks
of protraction and escalation. Just as Putin’s forces in Syria are not immune
to kinetic weapons, they are not immune to strategic fog and friction. My guess
is that there are a few Soviet veterans of their war in Afghanistan sharing a
vodka at a bar in Moscow right now saying, “Doesn’t anyone in the Kremlin
remember anything?”
Now to the U.S.
side of the equation. The U.S. strategy in Syria has not worked. Putin’s
decision to inject Russian forces into the fray is a good opportunity to
recognize that fact. With the exception of the negotiated removal and
destruction of 1,300 tons of chemical weapons from Syria—a remarkable
achievement—little else the United States has tried has brought Syria closer to
stability.
U.S. policy has
been the most inconsistent of any nation involved in this complicated conflict.
While the thousands of U.S. air strikes have no doubt taken a toll on ISIS, they
have not brought an end to the conflict. Informed sources are well aware that
air strikes alone will not win the conflict, and our attempts to train a
volunteer army of moderate Muslims has failed. Just last month, news sources
reported that the latest cadre of U.S.-trained Syrian freedom fighters turned
over most of their weapons to an al-Qaeda splinter group within hours after
crossing into Syria to fight ISIS. This should be cause enough for a strategic
reassessment.
Our attempts to
find courageous and capable “moderate Muslims” to fight the Islamic extremists
and bring democracy to their lands has failed. It echoes the British longing
from 1777–83 to find pockets of loyal Colonial Americans to win back the
colonies from rebel forces. The entire British strategy, like America’s in
Syria, was based on finding loyal forces to do the dirty work on the ground for
them. It was a pipe dream for the British, as it is for us today. And like the
British of yore, America is slow to recognize the fact that we won’t find a
great army of moderate Muslims to restore order to their native lands.
The news of
Russian MiGs bombing targets this week in Syria has been interspersed with
reports that the U.S.-backed Afghan government forces lost the major city of
Kunduz to Taliban forces. That news shows how difficult the fight against a
determined enemy is, even when U.S. forces are present. We have been working to
eliminate Taliban and al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan for more than 14 years.
Recognition of the cost, and limited success in this effort, should give pause
to those proposing that the presence of U.S. ground troops in Syria (or Iraq)
will fix the ISIS problem. It won’t.
A good question
to start with in this strategic reassessment is: Who is our real enemy in the
region, the one that poses the greatest danger to world order? The answer is it
is not Bashar al Assad. It is ISIS. It is here that we can find common ground
with those forces engaged in defeating the jihadists that wish to restore the
caliphate.
The United
States and Russia share an interest in destroying ISIS, maintaining stability
in the region, and ending the refugee crisis. With the exception of keeping
Assad in power, there are many shared interests. The introduction of Russian
weapons and personnel in Syria only makes it more possible to achieve each of
these goals.
Even if the
Russians did not enter the complex battle space of Syria, the odds of the United
States achieving its stated goals in Syria were looking dismally low. Perhaps
we need to get over our bruised egos regarding Putin’s latest punk move and
recognize that the Russians on the ground in Syria present some new tactical
and strategic tools to achieve those aforementioned goals.
About The Author:
Cmdr. Dolan
teaches Strategy & War with the Naval War College’s Distance Education
program, and history as an adjunct professor at the University of Maine. He is
a former EP-3E/Special mission P-3 naval flight officer, and frequent
contributor to USNI News and Proceedings.
This article was originally published at US Naval Institute's News Blog on October 2, 2015 under Creative Commons license
The increased
presence of Russian forces in Syria has added another layer of complexity to an
already confusing array of warring factions—a good estimate is that 18 to 20
factions now are fighting for one cause or another in Syria.
The Russians
assuming an active role in the Syrian battle space took the United States by
surprise. For many American political, military, and media voices it is evident
that Russia’s recent actions struck a nerve.One suspects
that the latent Cold War conditioning of Americans over 40 years of age
resurfaces whenever Russia does something that reminds us of the bipolar world
we once wrestled to control. This brief analysis will look for reasons why the
Russians are in Syria, and what it might mean for the fight against ISIS. The
perspectives of both Russia and the United States will be examined.
While some in
America worry that the Russians will soon embark on a conquest of the Middle
East, the fact is that the Russians are not new to Syria. The first point to
recognize is that Russia is not invading Syria; the latter has long been an
ally of Russia (and its former Soviet self). The importance of Syria, and a
keeping a toehold in the Mediterranean, is underscored by the fact that the
Syrian port of Tartus was the only foreign military base maintained by Russia
after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Russian arms
sales to Syria, and regular port visits by Russian vessels, have continued
since the 1970s. It is important to note that every other foreign military
outpost of the Soviet empire was abandoned in the early 1990s, but that one
remained. One can only conclude that this relationship, and geographic
location, was significant enough that it was preserved and maintained by
post-Soviet Russia.
This article was originally published at US Naval Institute's News Blog on October 2, 2015 under Creative Commons license