Trump Sees a Short War in Iran. Tehran Is Preparing for a Long One

U.S.-Iran war risks becoming a prolonged conflict as Tehran seeks to outlast Washington’s push for quick victory while oil shocks and pressure rise.

 

Cover Image Attribute: President Donald J. Trump Holds a Press Conference regarding the Iran war, March 9, 2026 / Source: The White House

As Iranian forces launched drones toward Saudi Arabia and Kuwait early Tuesday, triggering defensive intercepts in the kingdom’s oil-rich eastern region and across northern and southern areas of Kuwait, President Donald Trump continued to project confidence that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, even as fresh attacks underscored Tehran’s determination to prolong the fight and as economic ripples from the conflict intensified. Incoming missile sirens also sounded in Dubai and Bahrain, part of a pattern of Iranian strikes that have targeted energy infrastructure and extended the war across the Persian Gulf, compounding disruptions to global oil flows already strained by Tehran’s effective stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. These latest actions came just hours after Trump, speaking to reporters in Florida on Monday, characterized the U.S.-Israeli operation as largely successful and ahead of schedule, stating that the war in Iran would be over “very soon.” His remarks stood in contrast to the on-the-ground reality of sustained Iranian retaliation.
Trump’s assessment echoed comments he made to CBS that same day, describing the war as “very complete, pretty much.” The president added that the United States had hit thousands of Iranian targets ranging from government buildings and military bases to missile sites, with the stated objective of neutralizing threats from Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities to the United States and its regional allies. Yet even as Trump emphasized progress, he acknowledged the potential for escalation, warning that if Iran continued blocking the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. response would be decisive. In a social media post, he declared that Iran would be hit by the United States of America “TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far” should it interfere with shipping in the critical waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. The president also indicated readiness to provide risk insurance to tankers and to have the U.S. Navy escort vessels through the strait if necessary, while announcing plans to remove oil-related sanctions on unspecified countries to help ease price pressures.
These signals of possible de-escalation from the White House came amid private urgings from some Trump advisers for the president to articulate a clear exit plan, public polling and the risk of political backlash ahead of midterm elections. Oil prices had surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday before retreating toward $90, still about 24 percent higher than when fighting began on February 28, with the volatility sending U.S. stock markets on a manic swing from early losses to gains on hopes that the conflict might prove short-lived. Stephen Moore, an outside economic adviser to Trump, captured the domestic unease by noting that when the price of gas and oil rise, so does everything else, adding that given affordability was already an issue, this leads to real challenges. Advisers have also warned that the conflict threatens global energy supplies, prompted attacks on merchant ships that killed at least seven mariners, and forced more than 36,000 Americans to return from the region, according to the State Department. Some Republicans have fielded nervous calls about the political fallout, and the administration has reportedly concluded that a more aggressive communications strategy is needed to maintain support as consumers face higher fuel costs.
Public polls released in recent days have shown majority opposition to the war, a dynamic that has prompted some of Trump’s conservative base to question the wisdom of a longer engagement despite initial backing for the operation. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back against reports of internal divisions, insisting that stories citing anonymous sources questioning Trump’s resolve were full of crap from people who are not in the room with President Trump. She stressed that the president’s top aides are focused 24/7 on ensuring Operation Epic Fury continues to be a tremendous success, and that the end of these operations will ultimately be determined by the commander in chief. Leavitt further asserted that the vast majority of Americans support ending the threat posed by the Iranian regime and support killing terrorists, and that’s what President Trump is going to accomplish. Trump himself has sent mixed messages, having previously called for Iran’s unconditional surrender and left open the possibility of ground troops, only to state on Monday that he was nowhere near issuing such an order. When asked about supporting Iranian protesters who have risen against the regime, he sounded eager for resolution rather than prolonged regime-change efforts, saying, we want a system that can lead to many years of peace, and if we can’t have that, we might as well get it over with right now.
The president expressed disappointment over Iran’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the new supreme leader, a move that signals Tehran’s refusal to yield. He has privately hinted at backing further targeted actions against the younger Khamenei if demands are unmet, according to officials familiar with his thinking, though he has stopped short of public confirmation. Trump also addressed reports of a Tomahawk missile strike that killed 175 people at a school in Iran, initially blamed on Tehran but later linked by U.S. military investigators possibly to American forces. He said he didn’t know enough about the incident and that it was something that I was told is under investigation, adding that he was willing to live with a probe about who was responsible. Seven U.S. servicemembers have been killed and eight seriously wounded since the fighting began, according to U.S. Central Command, while Iranian retaliation has struck U.S. bases and regional targets including international airports and oil refineries.
On the Iranian side, the leadership has projected control and resilience despite 10 days of punishing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that have battered infrastructure and eliminated key figures including the elder Khamenei. Senior political figures, operating from undisclosed locations and limiting public appearances, have maintained a steady stream of defiant messages, while security forces have kept a heavy presence on city streets to prevent protests. There has been no significant recurrence of the unrest that shook the regime earlier in the year, partly due to a near-total communications blackout and explicit threats from the Revolutionary Guard that street protests would be considered an example of direct cooperation with the enemy, with a shoot-to-kill order in place for those showing sympathy for the adversary. Iran’s military is firing an average of 45 missiles daily toward Persian Gulf neighbors and Israel in recent days—down from 420 on the second day but stabilized—and launching hundreds of drones at oil facilities, airports, embassies and even sites linked to U.S. fuel supplies in Oman.
A spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammad Naini, responded directly to Trump’s remarks by declaring that Iran will determine when the war ends. Kamal Kharazi, a foreign policy adviser to the office of the supreme leader, told CNN that Iran is prepared for a long war and sees no room for diplomacy anymore unless economic pressure prompts other countries to intervene and stop the aggression of Americans and Israelis against Iran. Iran’s national-security leader, Ali Larijani, reinforced this stance in a televised interview, stating that countries in the region must either prevent the United States from using their territory against Iran themselves, or we will do it. Five pro-Iranian militants from the Popular Mobilisation Forces were killed in an airstrike in northern Iraq early Tuesday, though it remained unclear who carried it out, amid broader attacks by Iranian-linked groups on U.S. bases.
Analysts attribute Iran’s ability to withstand the pressure to pre-war preparations following heavy losses in a prior 12-day conflict with Israel and the United States in June. Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now in exile, observed that they were prepared, noting that even if their military capacity and their buildings are being destroyed, they believe that airstrikes alone can’t destroy the regime. The swift appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and pledges of allegiance from political and religious establishments have signaled institutional continuity, challenging the U.S.-Israeli assumption that decapitating leadership would trigger collapse. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that resilience should not be mistaken for strength, explaining that the regime looks more brittle than broken, relying less on legitimacy than on repression, institutional discipline, and a shared sense among elites that their survival is now existential.
The war’s expansion has exacted a heavy human toll, with at least 1,230 people killed in Iran, 397 in Lebanon and 11 in Israel, according to officials. Iranian strikes have also hit armed Kurdish groups in Iraq to deter ground involvement and targeted ports and refineries supplying U.S. forces. Despite the intensity, the pace of missile launches has moderated, suggesting a deliberate strategy of calibrated pressure aimed at forcing Trump to reconsider the costs of continuation. Markets reflected the uncertainty, with Brent crude prices whipping between extremes before settling lower on optimism that the conflict might not drag on indefinitely, though the underlying disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure persist. Trump has been briefed on polling data and the shifting sentiment within his base, where support for the initial strikes remains but erodes with each week of fighting and rising prices at the pump.
Some administration officials have cautioned that as long as Tehran continues attacking regional countries and Israel seeks further strikes, full U.S. withdrawal remains unlikely. Trump has acknowledged Iran’s refusal to concede despite the campaign’s military advantage, yet he has also emphasized that he won’t stop fighting until he can claim a satisfactory victory. His team has weighed options including continued targeting of Iranian assets while exploring diplomatic off-ramps through sanctions relief and naval protection for shipping. The appointment of the hard-liner Mojtaba Khamenei has complicated hopes for quick leadership change, as Iranian forces maintain coordination in their retaliatory strikes and security services suppress internal dissent through checkpoints, patrols and warnings to parents against allowing children onto the streets.
The broader regional fallout includes attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon prompting reciprocal missile fire into Israel, as well as disruptions to business hubs that have sent foreigners fleeing and millions seeking shelter from bombs hitting civilian-adjacent sites such as hotels and water installations. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has documented the deadly consequences for merchant shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian actions have all but halted tanker traffic. U.S. diplomatic missions have drawn down staff. Amid these developments, Trump has maintained that the U.S. holds the upper hand and could go further if needed, stating after his Monday remarks that we could go further, and we’re going to go further. Yet the Iranian leadership’s observable effectiveness in projecting unity and sustaining operations has raised questions about how long the aerial campaign can continue without boots on the ground or a negotiated pause, especially as economic consequences accumulate for all parties.
Several analysts say Iran’s strategy appears calibrated to outlast initial U.S. momentum by turning the conflict into a test of endurance, betting that mounting economic and political costs will eventually compel Washington to seek an off-ramp. At the same time, the Trump administration has framed its actions as defensive and limited, focused on degrading specific threats rather than open-ended occupation. As financial markets opened Tuesday in Asia with gains building on late U.S. optimism, the trajectory of the conflict remained fluid, shaped by contradictory signals from both capitals and the persistent reality of Iranian strikes that show no immediate sign of abating. The coming days will test whether Trump’s vision of a short-term excursion can prevail against Tehran’s insistence that it alone will decide when the fighting stops, with the economic well-being of ordinary Americans and the stability of the wider Middle East hanging in the balance.

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