SITREP: Pakistan and Afghanistan Edge Deeper Into Conflict

“Open war” between Pakistan and Afghanistan raises fears of regional instability and spillover from the Iran conflict.

Cover Image Attribute: Taliban fighters stand beside an armed pickup truck at the Afghan side of the Ghulam Khan border crossing with Pakistan in Khost province of Afghanistan on March 6, 2026 / Source: Saifullah Zahir/AP

Border fighting raises regional concerns over Iranian spillover and broader instability

 Pakistan launched airstrikes on February 22 against seven camps in eastern Afghanistan belonging to the Pakistani Taliban and its affiliates, as well as a group associated with the Islamic State, targeting what Islamabad described as bases used for cross-border attacks. Pakistan’s information ministry called the operations “intelligence-based, selective operations” and said it had “conclusive evidence” that recent deadly attacks on its soil were carried out by militants at the “behest of their Afghanistan-based leadership and handlers.” Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense condemned the strikes as a “blatant violation of Afghanistan’s national sovereignty” and a “clear breach” of international law. A senior police official in Nangarhar province, Sayed Tayeb Hamad, reported that 18 people were killed, including women and children, with bodies still being recovered from rubble in civilian areas hit in Nangarhar and Paktika provinces.
Two days later, on February 24, fresh clashes erupted along the border near the Torkham crossing and in the Shahkot area, with both sides accusing each other of initiating fire. Zabihullah Noorani, head of the Afghan information department in Nangarhar, said Pakistani forces “carried out the first shots in the Shahkot area near the border” and that fighting had since stopped with no Afghan casualties. A Pakistani government official, Mosharraf Zaidi, countered that Pakistan’s security forces had “responded immediately and effectively silencing the Taliban aggression.” The Afghan Defence Ministry held the Pakistani military responsible for targeting civilians and religious sites, stating it would “respond to these attacks in due course with a measured and appropriate response.” The United Nations mission in Afghanistan reported at least 13 civilians killed in the earlier strikes, while Afghan authorities put the toll in the dozens, including women and children.
On February 26, Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities announced they had launched large-scale offensive operations against Pakistani military positions along the Durand Line. Taliban government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the actions were “in response to repeated provocations and violations by Pakistani military circles.” Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting reported that Taliban regime forces were “being delivered punishment” in several sectors, claiming heavy casualties on the Afghan side with multiple posts and equipment destroyed. Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, said no Pakistani outposts had been “captured or damaged” and that Pakistani forces had “inflicted heavy losses,” including 133 Afghan Taliban members killed and more than 200 wounded, with 27 posts destroyed and nine captured. An Afghan military source claimed 10 Pakistani soldiers killed and 13 outposts captured in the retaliatory actions.
By February 27, the situation had escalated dramatically, with Pakistan conducting air and ground strikes on targets in Kabul, Kandahar, Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Laghman, marking its first direct attacks on Afghan government sites over allegations of harboring militants. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has always tried to resolve issues through dialogue, and now also we want to resolve this matter through dialogue.” Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif declared, “Our cup of patience has overflowed. Now it is open war between us and you (Afghanistan).” He added that Pakistan had made every effort at diplomacy but that “the Taliban became a proxy for India.” Pakistan’s military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry reported that forces had hit 22 Afghan military targets and killed more than 200 Taliban fighters, while confirming at least 12 Pakistani soldiers had died. Zabihullah Mujahid countered that only 13 Taliban fighters had been killed and 22 injured, with 13 civilians injured and an indeterminate number killed.
Afghan forces responded with drone strikes on Pakistani military positions, and heavy artillery exchanges continued near Torkham. Pakistan claimed its strikes killed 274 Taliban officials and militants, while Afghanistan reported killing 55 Pakistani soldiers. Civilian casualties were reported in Kabul, where residents described hearing aircraft, explosions and seeing plumes of black smoke rising from struck sites, including an ammunition depot that continued detonating. A Kabul taxi driver named Tamim recounted, “The plane came and dropped two bombs, then flew away again. After that, we heard explosions. Everyone, in panic, ran down from the second floor of the house.” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ spokesperson Stephane Dujarric called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” and reiterated the need to resolve differences through diplomacy. The U.S. State Department said it supported “Pakistan’s right to defend itself against attacks from the Taliban, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group,” while the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that “Afghan territory must not be used to threaten or attack other countries.”
On the same day, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif reiterated accusations that the Taliban had turned Afghanistan into a “colony of India” and become a “proxy of India,” exporting terrorism. India’s Ministry of External Affairs strongly condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes, noting civilian casualties including women and children during Ramadan, and described them as “another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures.” India’s foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that New Delhi had reopened its embassy in Kabul in October 2025, hosted Taliban officials and provided humanitarian aid after an earthquake, while maintaining “close communication and regular engagement” with Kabul. Analysts cited in reporting noted strategic convergence despite ideological differences, with one International Crisis Group expert observing that “with Pakistan’s increasingly strained relations with Afghanistan, the logic of ‘enemy’s enemy’ is acting as a glue between Kabul and New Delhi.”
A Reuters analysis traced the shift from Pakistan’s historical sponsorship of the Taliban in the 1990s for strategic depth against India to the current enmity, noting that Islamabad now accuses Kabul of sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters responsible for a surge in attacks since 2022. Pakistani security sources cited “irrefutable evidence” linking recent incidents, including a suicide bombing and an attack in Bajaur that killed 11 security personnel, to Afghan-based militants. The report recalled earlier October clashes that killed dozens before a fragile ceasefire, which failed to hold amid continued militant activity.
Fighting entered its fifth day on March 2 with no signs of de-escalation. Taliban forces claimed to have destroyed a Pakistani armoured tank in Paktika and captured more than 25 border posts, while Pakistani forces reported destroying ammunition depots and drone storage sites, claiming 435 Afghan troops killed and 188 posts destroyed. Afghan police said Pakistani jets attempting to bomb Bagram air base were repelled by anti-aircraft fire. Enayatullah Khowarazmi told residents not to worry about aircraft overhead, saying “sometimes the enemy’s aircraft pass through our airspace” and “Do not be concerned, they are your own sons.” Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar reiterated that “Pakistan has had only one ask, and that’s that Afghan soil shouldn’t be used against Pakistan.” Mediation offers from Qatar and others had produced no progress.
As the conflict unfolded alongside ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, a Bloomberg Opinion piece highlighted the risks of two simultaneous wars along Iran’s porous borders. It noted that Pakistan had declared open war on the Taliban regime the previous week, sending jets across the disputed frontier while Iran faced retaliatory drone and missile strikes. The analysis warned that “frontiers are already porous, crossed by smuggling routes, refugee trails, and militant hideouts” and that “a descent into chaos will offer armed groups an inviting landscape that is controlled by nobody,” potentially spilling threats outward and placing Pakistan on the frontline of global risks.
Heavy shelling and explosions continued along the 2,600-kilometre border into March 4, sparking fear among residents observing Ramadan. In Landi Kotal near Torkham, local Farid Khan Shinwari described nightly barrages: “There is complete silence in the day, but the moment we sit for iftar dinner, the two sides start shelling. We open our fast in extremely difficult situations, as you never know when a shell can hit your house.” Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar insisted that “Pakistan exercises great care in only targeting terrorists and support infrastructure. No civilian structures have been targeted.” Afghan authorities reported shooting down a Pakistani drone and capturing seven border posts, while claiming 110 civilians killed, including 65 women and children, since fighting began. The United Nations mission listed 42 civilian deaths.
On the same day, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration reported that nearly 66,000 Afghans had been displaced in eastern and southeastern provinces amid the fierce fighting. The agency warned of escalating humanitarian impacts, including risks to food security, with emergency distributions suspended for about 160,000 people. A labourer from Kunar province, Asadullah, said “thousands of families have left the village” of Sirkanay, leaving villages nearly empty. Pakistani adviser Rana Sanaullah said most training centres had been eliminated but stressed the need for “verifiable evidence” that Afghan soil would not be used for attacks.
An Atlantic Council analysis described the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis as worsening even as the Iran conflict continued, noting Pakistan’s airstrikes on more than 20 locations, including Kabul and Kandahar, and Taliban counterattacks on dozens of border posts. It traced tensions to Pakistan’s accusations that the Taliban shelters Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters, despite historical alliances, and warned that Iranian instability could destabilize Pakistan’s Balochistan province, emboldening separatist insurgents and diverting security resources amid the Afghan fighting and lingering India tensions. Possible outcomes ranged from renewed mediated talks to continued low-intensity clashes or full escalation, with diplomatic efforts complicated by the Middle East situation.
The Diplomat piece on prolonged unrest in Iran, outlined additional pressures on Pakistan, including risks to its 900-kilometre border with Iran where ethnic Baloch populations straddle both sides. It noted that weakening Iranian control in Sistan-Balochistan could allow ethno-separatist groups to stage attacks into Pakistani Balochistan, while jihadist networks might exploit the chaos to expand operations linked to the Afghan border volatility. Economic impacts on $3 billion in annual trade, sectarian harmony among Pakistan’s Shia population and border management were also highlighted as concerns compounding the Afghan crisis.
As of early March, both sides continued to exchange fire with no immediate ceasefire in sight, despite repeated offers of dialogue from the Taliban and international calls for restraint. Casualty figures remained unverified and divergent, civilian displacement mounted and the humanitarian situation deteriorated along the frontier. The overlapping conflicts with Iran raised the prospect of militant convergence and spillover, while Pakistan’s accusations of external influence and India’s measured engagement with Kabul added layers of strategic complexity. Regional actors, including mediators previously involved in October talks, faced competing demands from multiple crises, leaving the trajectory of the Pakistan-Afghanistan confrontation uncertain but clearly capable of reshaping security dynamics across South and Central Asia.

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