Allies Hold Back on Trump’s Flotilla Plan to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Allies hesitate on Trump’s Hormuz flotilla plan as Iran disrupts oil flows, raising global energy risks and exposing divisions among Western partners.

Cover Image Attribute: The satellite view of  Strait of Hormuz

The narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally flows, have become the focal point of an intensifying standoff as the United States and Israel continue military operations against Iran. So far, Iran has effectively halted commercial traffic by warning it would strike vessels attempting passage without its approval, a move that has choked off critical energy exports and sent global prices for crude oil, gasoline and diesel surging. In response, President Donald Trump has urged a coalition of nations to dispatch warships to the strait to reopen a safe path for shipping, urging countries to participate rapidly. The proposal, advanced over the weekend and reiterated publicly, reflects an effort to secure the chokepoint as the conflict enters its third week. During this period, Iranian missiles and drones have targeted military bases, ports, oil facilities and civilian infrastructure across Gulf states.
The strategic stakes are substantial. The strait serves as the primary artery for much of the Persian Gulf's oil and gas exports, largely heading to economies such as China, India, Japan and South Korea. Disruptions have already slashed Middle Eastern oil output from 21 million barrels per day to 14 million, with forecasts indicating further declines to as low as 6 million if vessels continue to avoid the route. Gulf economies, many of which rely on oil and gas for roughly one-quarter of GDP, face mounting pressure, including halted energy exports, thousands of flight cancellations and daily tourism losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates offer limited relief, while countries such as Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain lack viable alternatives, heightening risks of recession and broader global spillover effects including higher fuel costs and inflation.
Trump framed the flotilla idea as a shared responsibility, noting that the United States, now the world's largest oil producer, does not depend on the strait but that other nations heavily reliant on it should step forward. In a post on his Truth Social platform, h e expressed hope that China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others would join the operation, adding that the United States had supported NATO allies in the past and expected reciprocal support. He warned the NATO alliance could face consequences if members failed to assist, and during White House events he stated that they should be jumping to help us because we’ve helped them for years. He said some countries had “greatly disappointed” him, while insisting, “we don’t need anybody because we’re the strongest nation in the world and have the strongest military.” Trump claimed the United States was hammering their capacity to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and that they have been significantly degraded, predicting long ago that Iran would block shipping there. He also noted that the Iranian regime wants to make a deal but expressed uncertainty, saying we don't even know their leaders and we have no idea who's in charge in Tehran.
Despite these appeals, major allies have shown little inclination to participate, citing limited strategic interest and caution over deeper involvement. European partners have been particularly vocal in their reluctance. The European Union’s top diplomat said, “this is not Europe’s war,” revealing a broader unwillingness among NATO members to expand existing naval missions in the region to cover the strait. Germany has taken the firmest stance against involvement. Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Germany will not participate in the Iran war, explaining that the country lacks the mandate from the United Nations, the European Union or NATO required under the Basic Law. He added that it was therefore clear from the outset that this war is not a matter for NATO and that the United States of America and Israel did not consult us prior to this war either, making the question of how Germany might become militarily involved here not arise. Merz concluded simply that we will not do it. Similar reservations have echoed across the continent, with no major NATO country publicly committing naval ships as of late this week.
The pushback has extended to other traditional partners. Australia ruled out deployment outright. Cabinet Minister Catherine King said, “we won’t be sending a ship to the Strait of Hormuz”, acknowledging its importance but stating Australia had neither been asked nor planned to contribute. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said, “we have not made any decisions about dispatching escort ships” and that the government is continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework. Britain initially signaled possible consideration of mine sweepers but later indicated that sending vessels would only worsen the volatile situation, while South Korea said it remains in consultations with Washington and will decide after review. Analysts have attributed the widespread hesitation to a lack of prior consultation in the lead-up to the conflict and lingering strains from previous U.S. policies toward allies.
Gulf Arab states, meanwhile, find themselves in a more complex position, having absorbed significant Iranian attacks while urging Washington to pursue a decisive outcome. More than two thousand projectiles have struck targets across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, damaging energy installations and raising fears for water infrastructure and desalination plants supplying much of the region’s fresh water. Leaders in these countries have urged the United States not to stop short of neutralizing Iran's offensive capabilities, arguing that leaving Tehran with residual military strength could allow it to threaten the Hormuz lifeline again. Abdulaziz Sager captured the prevailing sentiment by noting that there is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line and that once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy. He warned that if the Americans pull out before the task is complete, we’ll be left to confront Iran on our own. Bernard Haykel observed that now that Iran has shown it can shut down Hormuz, the Gulf faces a fundamentally different threat.
Yet these states have resisted direct involvement in offensive operations or a broader coalition effort, maintaining a defensive posture and emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. The United Arab Emirates has stated that it does not seek to be drawn into conflicts or escalation while affirming its right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security and integrity. Consensus within the Gulf Cooperation Council has proven elusive, with no formal Arab summit convened and only limited coordination on air defenses. Officials have stressed that unilateral action remains off the table and that any collective response would need to balance immediate security needs against long-term regional stability.
The absence of allied support has clearly frustrated the administration. Trump has expressed surprise at the lack of eagerness to help and reiterated that the United States is proceeding alone if necessary, while deploying additional marine forces to the Gulf to bolster its operations. Diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes, but as of this week no government has confirmed participation in the proposed flotilla, and several have explicitly declined. Analysts say reluctance stems partly from perceptions that the conflict is a war of choice rather than collective defense, compounded by concerns over potential Iranian retaliation and the economic uncertainties already rippling through global markets.
The broader implications of the impasse extend far beyond the immediate military campaign. With energy shipments through the strait sharply reduced, Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts, and insurance and freight costs have risen sharply. Qatar has seen its liquefied natural gas production curtailed, driving European gas prices higher, while forecasts indicate GDP contractions of up to 14 percent in the most exposed Gulf states if the disruptions persist for several more weeks. Capital flight and canceled investments add to the strain on economies that had been pivoting toward diversification and tourism. For the United States, the rising oil prices present domestic political challenges, even as officials insist the campaign is degrading Iran's ability to project power. Iran, for its part, has shown no sign of easing its grip on the strait, with indications that it views control of the waterway as leverage in any future negotiations.
With no clear path to reopening the strait through multilateral naval support, the episode highlights the limits of unilateral appeals in an era of strained alliances and competing national priorities. Gulf states continue to absorb economic and security costs while advocating for a comprehensive resolution, European partners hold firm to their non-involvement, and the United States presses ahead with its military assets. The outcome in the Strait of Hormuz will likely shape not only the trajectory of the current war but also the long-term stability of global energy flows and the political alignments that underpin them. For now, commercial shipping remains at risk, oil markets stay volatile, and the search for a workable international response appears far from resolved.

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