Israel’s Gamble: The High Stakes of Gaza’s Seizure

By IndraStra Global Editorial Team

Cover Image Attribute: The file photo of the Israeli Merkava MBTs, one of the main assets for the ground offensive in Gaza.

The escalating conflict in the Gaza Strip, marked by Israel’s recent approval of an intensive military operation to seize the entire territory, presents a complex and deeply troubling chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian saga. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of a “powerful” offensive, aimed at defeating Hamas and securing the release of 59 remaining hostages, has ignited fierce debate within Israel and drawn sharp criticism internationally. The plan, which involves displacing Gaza’s civilian population southward and controlling humanitarian aid, underscores the delicate balance between Israel’s security imperatives, the humanitarian crisis engulfing Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, and the desperate pleas of hostage families for a diplomatic resolution. As the region braces for what Netanyahu has termed “Operation Gideon Chariots,” the absence of a clear post-war vision for Gaza raises profound questions about the operation’s long-term consequences.
The roots of this latest escalation trace back to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, which killed approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw 251 individuals taken hostage. Israel’s retaliatory campaign has since claimed over 52,000 Palestinian lives, predominantly civilians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, and reduced much of the enclave to rubble. The war’s toll—850 Israeli soldiers dead, nearly half a million Palestinians newly displaced, and Gaza’s medical and infrastructural systems in tatters—paints a grim picture of a conflict with no immediate end. The collapse of a fragile two-month ceasefire in March 2024, followed by Israel’s imposition of a humanitarian aid blockade, has exacerbated the crisis, with the United Nations warning of imminent famine. The blockade, now in its third month, has halted all goods, including food, fuel, and medical supplies, prompting aid agencies to accuse Israel of a “policy of starvation” that could constitute a war crime—an allegation Israel firmly rejects.
Netanyahu’s newly approved plan, endorsed unanimously by Israel’s Security Cabinet on the recommendation of military chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, marks a significant shift in strategy. Unlike previous tactics of short raids from outside Gaza, the operation will see Israeli forces hold seized territory, with the stated goal of preventing Hamas’s return. “The intention is the opposite,” Netanyahu declared, signaling a long-term presence in the enclave. The plan is gradual, with Israeli forces initially focusing on one area before expanding to control the entire Strip. Already, Israel holds roughly half of Gaza, having displaced populations and established security zones with watchtowers and surveillance posts. The new offensive will displace hundreds of thousands more Palestinians to Rafah in the south, where aid distribution, previously managed by the UN and international organizations, will be handed to private contractors under Israeli oversight. A senior Israeli security official emphasized that the “humanitarian blockade will continue” until a large-scale civilian evacuation is completed, after which a new aid plan will be implemented.
This approach has sparked alarm among humanitarian organizations. Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, condemned Israel’s demand that the UN and NGOs shut down their aid distribution systems, describing the proposed Israeli hubs as a means to “reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic.” The UN rejected Israel’s aid distribution proposal, calling it “dangerous” and warning that it would leave vulnerable populations, particularly the less mobile, without supplies. The blockade’s impact is undeniable: Gaza faces acute shortages of food, water, and medicine, with the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, reporting that nearly half a million Palestinians have been newly displaced. The humanitarian crisis, described as the worst in nearly 19 months of war, has drawn concern even from Israel’s allies, who fear the famine risk and the moral implications of the blockade.
Within Israel, the decision to escalate has deepened divisions. Hardline government figures, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have celebrated the move as a step toward permanent control of Gaza. “We are finally going to conquer Gaza. We are no longer afraid of the word ‘occupation’,” Smotrich proclaimed at a pro-settler conference. This rhetoric aligns with controversial proposals, such as U.S. President Donald Trump’s February 2024 suggestion to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” under U.S. control—a plan reiterated after his April meeting with Netanyahu, where he described Gaza as “an incredible piece of important real estate.” Such visions, however, clash with the growing exhaustion among the Israeli public. Opinion polls reveal increasing support for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, with protesters clashing with police outside the Knesset. “There’s no reason to continue on with this war. What we did for one-and-a-half years, and we couldn’t succeed, we won’t be able to do it now,” said Miri Wolf, a demonstrator, articulating the frustration of many who fear the operation will lead to more soldier deaths and hostages “coming back in black sacks.”
The hostage crisis remains a central concern. The families of the 59 captives, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, have issued a “red alert” over the planned offensive, warning that it “puts every hostage at grave risk.” The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters argued that the expansion “threatens the lives of our soldiers and deepens the toll on countless Israeli families already carrying the burden of this war.” Ruby Chen, whose son Itay was killed in the October 7 attack, voiced the weariness of many: “All the families are tired. All the families have been scared about this new manoeuvring because there is no guarantee that it will get us to where the families want.” Some reservists, called up in tens of thousands to support the operation, have echoed these sentiments, with reports of refusals to serve in what they view as a “politically motivated” war. At a Knesset committee meeting, Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan remains captive, urged soldiers to abstain from reserve duty “for moral and ethical reasons.”
Hamas, for its part, has rejected Israel’s approach as “pressure and blackmail.” Official Mahmoud Mardawi insisted on a “comprehensive” deal, demanding a “complete ceasefire, full withdrawal from Gaza, reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and the release of all prisoners from both sides.” With negotiations stalled since the ceasefire’s collapse, a narrow “window of opportunity” for a deal may exist during Trump’s upcoming Middle East visit, as suggested by Israeli Minister Ze’ev Elkin. “There is still a window of opportunity until President Trump concludes his visit to the Middle East, if Hamas understands we are serious,” Elkin told Israel’s public broadcaster Kan. Trump’s alignment with Netanyahu, underscored by his claim that the two are “on the same side of every issue,” adds a layer of geopolitical complexity, particularly given his earlier proposals for U.S. control of Gaza.
The military’s perspective, led by Zamir, reflects a pragmatic but strained approach. Zamir has pushed back against hardliners’ calls to choke off aid entirely, insisting that supplies must resume soon. Yet the call-up of reservists, some drafted multiple times, highlights the operation’s toll on Israel’s forces. The military’s stated aim—to “destroy all infrastructure above and below the ground” and increase pressure on Hamas—faces skepticism from critics who question whether further escalation will secure the hostages or merely prolong a war that has already cost 52,535 Palestinian lives, including 2,436 since March 18, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The broader regional context adds further strain: Iran-backed Houthi missile attacks, such as the one near Ben Gurion Airport, and instability in Syria and the West Bank test Israel’s capacity for sustained operations.
The absence of a “day-after” plan for Gaza remains a glaring gap. Israel’s accusations that international aid organizations allow Hamas to seize supplies have fueled its push for private contractors, but the UN’s warnings about Israeli-controlled hubs suggest this shift could deepen the humanitarian crisis. The operation’s gradual nature, spanning months, may mitigate immediate backlash but risks entrenching Israel in a prolonged occupation, as Smotrich’s “occupation” rhetoric implies. Protesters like Wolf fear this trajectory, warning of new settlements and endless conflict. “They just want to hold the strip of Gaza and make a new settlement there,” she said, encapsulating the distrust of government motives.
As Israel readies itself for "Operation Gideon Chariots," the consequences are as critical as they come. The operation’s goals—defeating Hamas, securing hostages, and ensuring Israel’s security—are undeniable priorities, yet the means—displacement, aid control, and indefinite occupation—threaten to inflame international condemnation and alienate Israel’s own citizens. The hostage families’ pleas, the reservists’ reluctance, and the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza demand a reckoning with the operation’s costs. Without a clear post-war vision or renewed diplomatic efforts, Israel risks a pyrrhic victory, where tactical gains come at the expense of strategic and moral clarity. The window for a ceasefire, as Elkin noted, may close soon, leaving the region to grapple with the fallout of a war that has already exacted an unbearable toll.
With reporting by NBC, Reuters, and the Times of Israel.

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