By Chetna Gill
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| Cover Image Attribute: Image by Cristian Ibarra from Pixabay |
Japan has issued a stark warning over the potential threats posed by China’s intensified export controls on vital semiconductor materials, reflecting heightened global tech supply chain tensions. This concern, raised by Japanese officials and industry executives, highlights the potential disruptions to semiconductor production and vehicle battery manufacturing, industries pivotal to both Japan’s economy and global technological advancement. At the heart of the issue are China’s restrictions on materials like gallium, a key component in advanced electronics, which threaten to ripple through supply chains already strained by geopolitical rivalries.
The Context of China’s Export Controls
China, a dominant player in the production of rare earth elements and other critical materials, has increasingly leveraged its position as a strategic tool in its ongoing technological and economic standoff with the United States and its allies. In July 2023, Beijing imposed export controls on gallium and germanium, metals essential for semiconductor manufacturing, citing national security concerns. This move was widely interpreted as a retaliatory response to U.S.-led efforts to restrict China’s access to advanced chipmaking equipment, an initiative that Japan and the Netherlands joined in a coordinated effort to curb China’s technological ambitions.
Gallium, in particular, is vital for producing compound semiconductors used in high-performance chips, which power everything from smartphones to military hardware. China accounts for approximately 98% of global gallium production, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, giving it unparalleled control over this resource. The export restrictions require foreign buyers to obtain licenses, a process that can take months and has already driven up prices in Europe and other markets. Japanese officials now fear that these controls could choke off supply lines critical to their domestic industries.
Japan’s Warning: A Call to Action
On February 21, 2025, the Financial Times reported Japan’s growing alarm, quoting officials and executives who warned that China’s gallium rules could “upset supply chains for chips and vehicle batteries.” This statement reflects Japan’s dual vulnerability: as a technological powerhouse heavily reliant on imported materials and as a key ally in the U.S.-led coalition to counter China’s technological rise. The country’s semiconductor industry, though no longer the global leader it once was, remains a significant supplier of chipmaking equipment and materials, with companies like Tokyo Electron and Nikon playing critical roles.
A senior Japanese official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, emphasized that the export controls “pose a direct threat to our industrial base.” The official pointed to the automotive sector, where gallium-based chips are increasingly used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and advanced driver-assistance systems. Japan, home to automotive giants like Toyota, has staked much of its economic future on EV innovation, and any disruption to chip supplies could derail these ambitions. “We cannot afford to be caught off guard,” the official added, signaling Japan’s intent to mitigate the risks through diplomatic and industrial measures.
Industry executives echoed this sentiment. A representative from a major Japanese chipmaker, who declined to be named, told reporters that the company had already seen a 30% increase in gallium costs since China’s restrictions took effect. “We’re scrambling to secure alternative suppliers, but the options are limited,” the executive said. “This isn’t just a short-term problem—it could reshape the global semiconductor landscape.”
The Broader Geopolitical Stakes
Japan’s warning comes amid a broader tech war that has pitted China against a coalition of Western nations and their allies. The U.S. has been the architect of this campaign, imposing sweeping export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking tools since 2022 to hinder China’s ability to develop cutting-edge technologies for military and artificial intelligence applications. Japan, aligning with Washington, tightened its own export restrictions in 2023, targeting 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. These measures, effective from July of that year, aimed to prevent Japanese technology from being repurposed for Chinese military use, though Tokyo insisted they were not directed at any specific country.
China has not taken these moves lightly. In addition to the gallium and germanium controls, Beijing has hinted at further retaliation, including potential restrictions on rare earth elements crucial for everything from magnets to EV batteries. In 2010, China briefly halted rare earth exports to Japan following a territorial dispute, an incident that still looms large in Tokyo’s strategic calculus. Japanese officials now fear a repeat scenario, with Toyota reportedly warning the government privately that new chip-related curbs could prompt China to cut off access to critical minerals, jeopardizing its automotive production.
The stakes are high for both nations. For China, maintaining leverage over critical materials strengthens its negotiating power and supports its goal of technological self-reliance. For Japan, ensuring a stable supply chain is essential to preserving its economic competitiveness and national security. The tension underscores a delicate balance: while Japan seeks to reduce its dependence on China, it must also avoid provoking a full-scale economic confrontation that could harm its own industries.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Implications
The immediate impact of China’s export controls is already evident. In Europe, gallium and germanium prices have nearly doubled over the past year, according to industry reports. Japanese firms, though cushioned somewhat by stockpiles and long-term contracts, are bracing for similar cost increases. Beyond price hikes, the uncertainty surrounding supply availability has sparked a race to diversify sources. Japan, South Korea, and Western nations are exploring alternatives, such as extracting gallium as a byproduct of coal mining or ramping up production in countries like Australia and Canada. However, analysts caution that scaling these alternatives will take years and significant investment—time and resources that Japan may not have in abundance.
The semiconductor industry, already battered by pandemic-era shortages and geopolitical friction, faces yet another stressor. Japan’s warning highlights the fragility of a global supply chain that relies heavily on a single nation for key inputs. For vehicle batteries, the implications are equally dire. Gallium-based chips enhance the efficiency and performance of EVs, a sector where Japan and China are fierce competitors. Disruptions here could slow the global transition to green energy, a priority for many governments.
Japan’s Response: Mitigation and Diplomacy
In response to the threat, Japan is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy. Domestically, the government is accelerating efforts to bolster its semiconductor industry through subsidies and partnerships, such as the new chip campus being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Kumamoto, with investment from Toyota. This initiative aims to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains by enhancing local production capacity.
Diplomatically, Japan is working with allies to secure alternative material sources and counter China’s dominance. Talks with the U.S. and other partners have focused on ensuring access to critical minerals, a priority heightened by China’s 2023 restrictions on graphite, another EV battery component. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has signaled it may tighten its own export controls further, though such moves risk escalating tensions with Beijing.
Looking Ahead: A Precarious Future
Japan’s warning about China is more than a reaction to a single policy—it’s a clarion call about the vulnerabilities of a globalized economy in an era of geopolitical rivalry. As China flexes its muscle and the U.S.-led alliance pushes back, Japan finds itself at a crossroads, balancing economic survival with strategic alignment. The outcome of this standoff will shape not only the tech and automotive industries but also the broader power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.
For now, the world watches as Japan navigates this high-stakes challenge. The gallium dispute is a microcosm of a larger struggle—one where control over technology and resources could determine the winners and losers of the 21st century. As one Japanese official put it, “This is not just about chips; it’s about the future.” Whether Japan can safeguard that future remains an open question, but its warning has ensured that the threat from China’s export controls is no longer an abstract concern—it’s a pressing reality.
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