Friedrich Merz Claims Victory in German Federal Election Amidst a Fractured Political Landscape

By Chetna Gill

Cover Image Attribute: The file photo of Friedrich Merz at an election rally. Photograph: Volker Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images

In a decisive moment for Germany, center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz emerged victorious in the federal election held on February 23, 2025, steering the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), to a leading position in a deeply divided nation. Exit polls broadcast late Sunday night placed the CDU/CSU bloc ahead, though shy of an outright majority, signaling the start of what promises to be a complex and contentious journey toward forming a coalition government. As Europe’s largest economy grapples with economic stagnation, societal rifts over migration, and shifting global alliances, Merz’s win marks a significant shift from the tumultuous years of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fractured coalition. Yet, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieving historic gains, the challenges facing Germany’s next leader are as daunting as they are urgent.
Merz, addressing supporters in Berlin as the results rolled in, declared, “The Union has won the election. This is a mandate for change, and I am determined to deliver it swiftly.” His victory ends a period of political instability triggered by the collapse of Scholz’s coalition—comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP)—in November 2024, after three years of infighting and declining public support. The snap election, held seven months ahead of schedule, reflected a nation eager for decisive leadership, with voter turnout reaching an impressive 83%, the highest since German reunification in 1990.
The CDU/CSU secured approximately 28.52% of the vote, which, while a clear lead, falls short of the commanding majorities enjoyed by former CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel during her 16-year tenure. Scholz’s SPD suffered a historic defeat, plunging to 16.41%, its worst postwar showing, while the Greens managed 11.61%. Smaller parties, including the far-left Die Linke (8.7%) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), hovered near the 5% threshold for parliamentary entry, complicating the arithmetic of coalition-building. Most striking, however, was the AfD’s surge to nearly 20.8%, doubling its previous support and cementing its status as the second-strongest force—a record for a far-right party in Germany since World War II.
Merz, a 69-year-old economic liberal and seasoned politician with no prior governmental experience, now faces the Herculean task of forging a stable government amid these fractures. His campaign, initially centered on reviving Germany’s ailing economy, took a sharp turn in its final weeks toward migration—a hot-button issue galvanized by recent violent incidents, including a deadly stabbing in Aschaffenburg and an attack on a Magdeburg Christmas market. This shift, coupled with Merz’s controversial decision to push a non-binding migration resolution with AfD support in January, sparked outrage and protests but also underscored his willingness to confront Germany’s postwar political taboos head-on.
“I aim to put together a governing coalition as quickly as possible,” Merz said Sunday night, acknowledging the “dimension of the task” ahead. Yet, his options are limited, and each path is fraught with obstacles. The CDU/CSU has categorically ruled out cooperation with the AfD, a stance Merz reiterated forcefully: “We will not work with them—not before the election, not after, never.” This leaves the SPD and Greens as the most likely partners, despite their weakened positions and mutual distrust with Merz’s conservatives, who have shifted rightward under his leadership.
A “grand coalition” (GroKo) with the SPD, a familiar arrangement that governed Germany under Merkel for over a decade, is one possibility. The SPD, reeling from its electoral drubbing, may prove a pliable partner, especially on migration, where Merz has promised a hardline stance—tighter border controls, increased deportations, and a rollback of asylum policies. However, the SPD’s leadership, including Scholz, who has ruled out serving under Merz, faces internal pressure to regroup, potentially elevating centrists like Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Negotiations could hinge on reconciling Merz’s economic liberalism with the SPD’s social welfare priorities, a delicate balance given Germany’s recession and automotive sector crisis.
Alternatively, a coalition with the Greens—sometimes dubbed a “Kiwi coalition”—offers a fresh dynamic, though it remains untested nationally. Three German states currently operate under such an arrangement, suggesting viability, but tensions run deep. Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder have lambasted the Greens’ climate policies as economically burdensome, with Söder once dismissing Green leader Robert Habeck as a “representative for heat pumps.” The Greens, in turn, have accused Merz of undermining Germany’s postwar democratic consensus by flirting with AfD rhetoric. Bridging this divide would require concessions on climate goals, a contentious issue as Merz prioritizes industrial growth over environmental mandates.
A three-party coalition, potentially involving the SPD, Greens, or smaller parties like the FDP (if it clears the 5% hurdle), looms as a less desirable fallback. The collapse of Scholz’s triad in 2024 serves as a cautionary tale—such arrangements risk paralysis, a luxury Germany cannot afford as it faces external pressures from a confrontational U.S. under President Donald Trump and an assertive Russia and China. Merz himself has hinted at preferring a two-party setup, citing Hesse’s CDU-SPD coalition as a model, where strategic maneuvering secured a stable government.
Beyond coalition mechanics, Merz’s victory carries profound implications for Germany and Europe. His pro-business agenda—cutting red tape, reducing energy costs, and delaying corporate sustainability rules—aims to jolt an economy battered by two years of contraction. Yet, his hands remain tied by Germany’s debt brake, a fiscal rule he has dodged reforming, limiting funds for industrial stimulus or Ukraine support, which he has pledged to bolster. On the European stage, Merz’s win strengthens the center-right European People’s Party, aligning Berlin with agricultural and trade policies favored by its allies, though his skepticism of U.S. reliability—voiced sharply after American interventions in the campaign—signals a pivot toward European self-reliance.
The AfD’s gains, particularly in eastern Germany, where it topped polls with 34%, underscore a persistent east-west divide and a growing populist threat. Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate, hailed the result as a stepping stone, predicting fresh elections if Merz’s coalition falters. “Germans have voted for change,” she declared, a sentiment Merz must now harness without legitimizing the far right.
As coalition talks loom, potentially stretching into months and leaving Scholz as a caretaker, Merz’s leadership will be tested not just by policy but by his ability to unify a polarized nation. His brash style—flying his private plane, invoking Ronald Reagan, and defying Merkel’s cautious legacy—marks a radical departure from Germany’s recent past. Whether this gamble pays off, or frays under the weight of compromise and crisis, will define not only his chancellorship but Germany’s role in an uncertain world. For now, the hard work begins, and all eyes are on Berlin.

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