The Fall of Assad and the Rise of Jolani: A New Era in Syria and Shifting Regional Dynamics

By IndraStra Global Editorial Team

Cover Image Attribute: Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani addresses a crowd at the Ummayad Mosque in Damascus following the announcement on December 8, 2024, that Syrian rebels had removed President Bashar al-Assad from power. /Source: Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters

In a watershed moment that has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East, the decades-long rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has come to an unexpected and dramatic conclusion. A rapid and fierce offensive by a coalition of Syrian rebel groups culminated in the takeover of Damascus, the heart of the nation, forcing Assad to seek sanctuary in Russia—a stunning turn of events that marks the end of over fifty years of governance by the Assad family.

The collapse of Assad's regime carries profound implications, not only for Syria but for the entire region, acting as a catalyst for a comprehensive realignment of geopolitical dynamics. As the dust settles, major players such as Israel, Turkey, and Russia are stepping into the void left by the regime, each vying to assert their influence amidst the evolving landscape of a nation once defined by decades of authoritarian rule.

Israel's Strategic Maneuvers

Israel has swiftly positioned itself as a dominant force in the Middle East following the political upheaval in Syria. In the wake of Assad's ousting, the Israeli military has ramped up its operations, conducting a series of extensive airstrikes aimed at obliterating Syrian military infrastructure. These strikes specifically target potential sites believed to house chemical weapons, reflecting Israel's urgent need to eliminate threats before extremist factions can seize them.

In this tumultuous environment, Israel's primary objective is twofold: to safeguard its strategic Golan Heights region, which it has unilaterally annexed despite widespread international non-recognition, and to neutralize the risk of advanced weaponry falling into the hands of hostile groups. The Israeli government's sentiments regarding Assad's fall are complex and contradictory. There is a palpable sense of relief at the prospect of diminishing Iranian influence in Syria. 

However, unease lingers regarding the unknown elements that might emerge to fill the power vacuum left in Assad's wake. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel has “no desire for a conflict with Syria,” emphasizing that their actions in Syria aim to “counter potential threats from the country and prevent terrorist elements from gaining control near our border.” Meanwhile, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the de facto head of Syria’s new administration, criticized Israel’s recent activities in Syria, asserting that they can no longer be justified. However, he acknowledged that Syria is not in a position to engage in a new conflict.

Turkey's Ascendancy

Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has risen to prominence as a crucial player in the complex dynamics of the Syrian conflict. The downfall of President Bashar al-Assad has opened up new avenues for Turkey to extend its influence, particularly in the strategically important region of northern Syria. Here, Turkey has actively supported various rebel groups, each with differing agendas, allowing Ankara to assert its presence on the ground.

Before HTS ousted Assad, its relationship with Turkey was marked by pragmatic cooperation despite underlying mistrust. Turkey initially labeled HTS a terrorist group due to its extremist ideology and ties to al-Qaeda, but HTS’s strategic shifts, including operations against ISIS in northwestern Syria, opened the door for collaboration. HTS facilitated Turkish patrols and observation posts in northern Syria while acting as a gatekeeper by curbing drug trafficking, preventing ISIS infiltration, and detaining individuals wanted by Turkish authorities. In the past, al-Sharaa, reportedly supported Turkish military campaigns east of the Euphrates, according to Syria TV.

Then and now, the Turkish government has articulated a strong desire to facilitate the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees currently residing within its borders and to weaken the U.S.-supported Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, these goals face significant challenges, particularly the need to establish stability and effective governance in the territories Turkey seeks to influence. With Assad's departure from power and the planned withdrawal of American troops from Syria by 2026—potentially leaving the SDF vulnerable to Turkish aggression and jeopardizing U.S. efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence—Turkey is actively pursuing the negotiation of a new political framework for Syria. This strategy may include leveraging its support for rebel factions to secure political and economic concessions that align with Turkey's regional interests.

Russia's Calculated Retreat

In recent times, Russia, a steadfast ally of the previous Syrian regime, has seen a marked decline in its influence over the volatile Middle East. The Kremlin's decision to grant asylum to Assad is a clear sign of a strategic withdrawal from direct involvement in Syrian affairs, rather than a complete disengagement. At the same time, Russia is navigating delicate negotiations to secure its military foothold. The crucial ports of Tartus and Hmeimim remain pivotal to bolstering Russia's maritime strategy in the Mediterranean, but the outcome of these negotiations is far from certain.

In the past, Syria has not only been a significant area of influence for Russia but also a valuable bargaining chip in its interactions with Washington. Even during the Ukraine conflict, Russia's military presence in Syria has given it leverage over both Türkiye and Israel. Israel has openly acknowledged that the presence of Russian bases in Syria influenced its decision not to send arms to Ukraine. 

However, the very same Ukraine conflict has significantly strained Russia's resources, leading to a noticeable decrease in its ability to shape political dynamics within Syria. As a result, there are discussions underway about how Russia might need to adjust its strategy in the Middle East to respond to these evolving challenges. Russia could potentially offer HTS, critical international legitimacy, especially since Europe and the United States are unlikely to establish diplomatic relations with Damascus soon. The Kremlin has effectively already extended such recognition, a move that mirrors its initial approach to acknowledging the Taliban.

In exchange for international recognition of HTS, Moscow may consider establishing and supporting an Alawite autonomous region in Syria’s Latakia, where Russian military bases are situated, to address the Alawites' concerns over Islamist groups. This approach would be similar to the U.S. backing of Syria's Kurds, who control large areas in the north of the country. Additionally, the necessity of negotiating with HTS could drive Russia to deepen its ties with radical groups globally. If Russia manages to form a relationship with HTS—something within the realm of possibility—it could unlock new strategic avenues and potentially provide the Kremlin with a regional advantage.

The New Syrian Reality

The new Syrian reality is that the toppling of Assad has created a significant power vacuum in the country, one that various factions and foreign powers are eagerly seeking to fill. This vacuum, while potentially leading to a more democratic and inclusive government, also poses a threat to the safety and security of the Syrian people. In the wake of this monumental change, celebrations erupted among many Syrians who had long been oppressed under the iron grip of Assad's regime. However, there is also a heavy cloud of anxiety about what the future might hold. The Syrian landscape has transformed into a complex mosaic of control zones, with numerous rebel groups, some of which harbor Islamist ideologies, fiercely competing for dominance.

The international community, particularly the U.S. and several European nations, has voiced urgent calls for stability during this precarious transition period, stressing the need to protect human rights. Their involvement, while well-intentioned, also introduces a layer of complexity to the situation. However, there is a palpable fear that Syria may further fragment, with the specter of escalating sectarian violence looming large and the risk of terrorist organizations regaining strength in ungoverned territories.

As the dust begins to settle from this seismic shift, the future of Syria hangs precariously in the balance. Each regional power attempts to assert its influence over this newly reframed landscape, leading to a delicate and intricate web of political maneuvering. The primary challenge facing the new de facto leaders will be to establish security, effective and just governance, and a hopeful path forward for the Syrian populace, who, after enduring over a decade of relentless war, crave peace and a return to normalcy. Yet, the web of regional politics, fraught with complications and shifting alliances, suggests that the journey ahead is likely to be riddled with obstacles, tensions, and the potential for further conflict.

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