Canada Raises Alarm: Ongoing Tensions with India May Heighten Cyber Risks and Affect Immigration

By Chetna Gill

As per the latest Reuters report, the escalating tensions between Canada and India regarding accusations of Indian involvement in violence against Sikhs in Canada raise serious concerns about potential repercussions, including an increase in cyber espionage from India and possible setbacks in immigration policies. Despite these fears, analysts remain cautious, suggesting no immediate threat to trade relations between the two nations. This skepticism about the direct economic fallout stems from a belief that both countries may prioritize maintaining their trade partnerships, even amid growing diplomatic strife.
The situation intensified when a senior Canadian official recently implicated Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, known to be a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as the alleged architect behind these violent schemes. While this accusation adds fuel to the fire of an already fraught relationship, it raises questions about the extent to which such allegations will affect diplomatic and economic engagements. As both countries navigate this turbulent period, the long-term implications of this conflict remain uncertain, leaving observers to wonder if trade will truly remain insulated from the fallout of their geopolitical disputes. This uncertainty underscores the need for continuous monitoring and analysis of the situation.
The reaction from Indian officials to the recent allegations has been dismissive. Yet, the revelation could escalate a conflict that began a year ago when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau referenced credible evidence linking Indian agents to the June 2023 murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. The evidence that has not been publicly shared suggests that the agents were involved in planning and executing the murder, leading to significant diplomatic fallout between the two nations. Following this incident, Canada took a notable step by expelling six Indian diplomats, accusing them of involvement in the shooting. Four individuals have since been charged in connection with the case. 
Meanwhile, Canada's signals intelligence agency Communications Security Establishment (CSE), responsible for monitoring foreign cyber threats, has indicated that India may already be engaging in cyber espionage activities against Canadian networks. During a recent press conference, Caroline Xavier, head of CSE, highlighted the likelihood of India escalating its cyber actions against Canada, noting that the agency has previously identified India as an emerging threat. While the situation unfolds, the intersection of diplomatic relations and cybersecurity may lead to a more complicated landscape for both nations.
On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is expected to refrain from implementing further punitive measures until additional information regarding the Nijjar case comes to light, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (APF Canada). With cabinet ministers scheduled to testify before the national security committee and the murder trial of the four suspects yet to commence, the timeline for any significant developments remains uncertain.
Nadjibulla highlighted that if charges were filed against individuals residing in India, an extradition process might be initiated for several years. The likelihood of India cooperating in such a scenario appears slim. This situation leaves observers questioning the effectiveness of any diplomatic strategies and whether meaningful accountability can be achieved amidst the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.
Officials in Prime Minister Trudeau's office and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly's team have not provided any comments regarding the potential next steps Ottawa may take in light of the ongoing tensions with India. The relationship is particularly significant, as India is the largest source of temporary foreign workers and international students in Canada. However, since Trudeau's allegations last year, there has been a notable backlog in applications, raising concerns about the efficiency of the immigration process.
Currently, Canada has only four immigration officials stationed in India, a significant drop from 27 in October 2023, which hampers the country's capacity to handle visa applications on the ground. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has warned that the situation could deteriorate further before showing signs of improvement, urging his colleagues in Parliament to prepare for the repercussions. This could lead to a decline in legitimate travel between the two nations, further complicating an already strained relationship and leaving many uncertain about the future of Canada-India ties. This stress on the need for preparedness makes the audience feel the importance of being ready for potential repercussions.
Regarding trade, India ranks as Canada's 10th largest trading partner, and New Delhi has indicated a desire to maintain uninterrupted trade flows despite ongoing tensions. A study conducted by Nadjibulla's foundation revealed that Prime Minister Trudeau's previous comments in October 2023 had minimal impact on bilateral trade. However, she raised concerns about the current situation, suggesting that the scale of disruption is more significant and that the problem may have yet to reach its lowest point, casting doubt on the stability of future trade relations.
On the other hand, Canada is a leading exporter of pulses, including lentils, to India. Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk emphasized the resilience of this trade relationship amid rising food price inflation and robust demand for pulse crops. He expressed confidence that affordability and availability would continue to guide governmental decisions in both countries. Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, echoed this sentiment, noting that political tensions have yet to impact trade significantly. He highlighted the potential for a productive trading relationship between India and Canada and expressed hope for a return to positive trade discussions moving forward. This emphasis on the potential for a productive trading relationship instills a sense of optimism in the business community.
With reporting by Reuters

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