What's Ahead for Oil and Gas Prices Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East

By Nathan Abbington

What's Ahead for Oil and Gas Prices Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East

 
Oil prices increased this week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran launched missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli threats of retaliation, which heightens the risk of disruptions in the region's oil supply. Although rising oil prices often trigger concerns about soaring gas prices, experts believe this may not necessarily occur.

Here's a summary of the current situation and the forecast for oil and gas prices:


The Rise


Oil prices surged by over $6 per barrel this week, resulting in higher prices at the gas pump. The average cost of a gallon of gasoline increased by 5 cents compared to the previous week. Specifically, Brent crude futures rose by 43 cents, or 0.6%, closing at $78.05 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 67 cents, or 0.9%, finishing at $74.38 per barrel. This rise in prices reflects ongoing fluctuations in the market, influenced by geopolitical factors and changes in supply and demand dynamics.


The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East often evokes memories of the oil embargo following the Yom Kippur War in 1973, which resulted in a dramatic quadrupling of oil prices. However, the landscape of global oil supply has changed considerably since the 1970s, with the United States emerging as the world's largest oil producer. While ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah—Iranian proxies—have not significantly affected the pricing strategies of OPEC and its member nations, the threat of confrontation between Israel and Iran remains a crucial factor that could impact oil prices. The oil market has shown resilience in the face of such tensions, providing a sense of reassurance to investors and industry professionals.


Despite the recent rise in gasoline prices, they are still lower than last year's. Gas prices in the U.S. typically increase alongside crude oil prices, as oil constitutes about half the cost of gasoline. Currently, the national average price for gas stands at approximately $3.18 per gallon, which is 13 cents lower than a month ago and 60 cents less than the same time last year when prices peaked at $5 per gallon in June 2022. Additionally, domestic gasoline prices are declining despite the looming threat of conflict and an active hurricane season. According to AAA, 18 states east of the Rockies have average prices below $3 per gallon. This trend may continue as weak gas demand and lower oil prices contribute to decreasing pump prices.


The Forecast


The long-term forecast indicates that oil prices are likely to decline rather than increase. This shift is attributed to a supply-and-demand imbalance favoring supply, which generally puts downward pressure on oil prices. In its latest report on the energy markets, the International Energy Agency noted that oil demand in the first half of this year grew by the smallest margin since 2020. At the same time, supplies have continued to rise, and the OPEC+ alliance, which includes members of the producers' cartel and allied nations like Russia, has announced plans to increase oil releases into the market starting in December. This forecast provides a sense of optimism for the future of oil prices.


Despite rising geopolitical tensions, fundamentals are moving in the opposite direction. Iranian oil exports are nearing their highest levels in years, according to Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh in a note to clients. While the main factor driving the geopolitical shift remains uncertain, it suggests a need for caution against assuming a prolonged disruption in oil supply.


The "Iranian" Factor


Iran produces approximately 3.99 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for 4% of global production. In comparison, Saudi Arabia produces about 9 million barrels daily.


Despite Western sanctions that have impacted its production and export capabilities, Iran has managed to sustain its oil sector by employing innovative strategies, such as blending and re-labeling oil for sale to markets like China. By mid-2023, Iran was exporting around 2 million barrels of oil per day, a significant increase from 500,000 barrels in 2020, although still below the 2.5 million barrels exported daily in 2018.


Export terminals like Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf could potentially be targets for an Israeli attack, as they are crucial for shipping crude oil abroad, primarily to Asian countries, including China.


Oil prices surged on Thursday after President Joe Biden stated that U.S. and Israeli officials were discussing a potential Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. On Friday, Biden mentioned that the specific nature of any retaliatory action by Israel was still being deliberatedStill, he suggested that if he were in Israel's shoes, he would consider alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields.


What's Next?


Tom Kloza, the global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, suggests that oil prices may be nearing their peak, with U.S. crude currently priced at $74.38 per barrel and Brent crude, the international benchmark, at $78.05. He notes that while Brent crude might flirt with $80 per barrel or higher for a brief period, the long-term forecast points towards a decline in prices.


Once geopolitical tensions ease, Kloza believes oil traders will shift their focus to 2025, a year that could pose significant challenges for high prices. He predicts that supply is likely to outstrip demand by between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day during that time, creating an oversupply situation that could further pressure prices downward.


This potential supply-demand imbalance in 2025 raises concerns about the sustainability of current price levels. With production capabilities increasing, especially in countries like the U.S. and Iran, and demand growth slowing, particularly in major consumer markets, the fundamentals suggest a significant shift in the oil market. This potential shift in the oil market is likely to intrigue investors and industry professionals, sparking further interest and analysis. 


With reporting by AP.


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IndraStra Global: What's Ahead for Oil and Gas Prices Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East
What's Ahead for Oil and Gas Prices Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East
By Nathan Abbington
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBLlQV1AgUplFnQFBrS1NWr-cfWmJBaHc-cnI-su3ieZONR_9wIDkPk6MNrzdoo8qFuKAcxoykkmjD__9TIXUB119M2teqB_UrSQnua84ZogNSB7hmV0byiuoctzGjVpd2MeJLicsNvmMmf0VNcHlgTprHvTvft0iJld4GKIGbVbSCuzY4XyPqMGocWZPM/w640-h348/840840p1231EDN.png
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBLlQV1AgUplFnQFBrS1NWr-cfWmJBaHc-cnI-su3ieZONR_9wIDkPk6MNrzdoo8qFuKAcxoykkmjD__9TIXUB119M2teqB_UrSQnua84ZogNSB7hmV0byiuoctzGjVpd2MeJLicsNvmMmf0VNcHlgTprHvTvft0iJld4GKIGbVbSCuzY4XyPqMGocWZPM/s72-w640-c-h348/840840p1231EDN.png
IndraStra Global
https://www.indrastra.com/2024/10/whats-ahead-for-oil-and-gas-prices-amid.html
https://www.indrastra.com/
https://www.indrastra.com/
https://www.indrastra.com/2024/10/whats-ahead-for-oil-and-gas-prices-amid.html
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