Israel's Economic Slowdown Amid War: An Outlook for 2025 and Beyond

By Rula Gabr

Cover Image Attribute: The file photo of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, November 29, 2020. / Source: Miriam Alster/Flash90
Cover Image Attribute: The file photo of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, November 29, 2020. / Source: Miriam Alster/Flash90

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly reduced its forecast for Israel's GDP growth in 2025, slashing expectations from the 5.4 percent predicted in April to just 2.7 percent. This revision comes as Israel's ongoing military conflict with Palestinian territories and neighboring regions has taken a devastating toll on both its economy and global standing.

For 2024, the IMF anticipates a meager growth rate of 0.7 percent for Israel, which suggests an actual decline in economic activity when adjusted for per capita terms. If the war ends, the fund sees an improvement in the coming years, but it will be slow. The growth projection for 2025 is 2.7%, rising gradually to 3.4% in 2029.

On the other hand, S&P projects zero growth for Israel this year, with a modest 2.2% growth expected in 2025. Moody's, which recently downgraded Israel's credit rating by two levels in a critical report, anticipates 0.5% growth in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The Bank of Israel's outlook is more aligned with the IMF, forecasting 0.5% growth for this year but predicting a more robust recovery in 2025, with an estimated increase of 3.8%. Earlier in August, Fitch Ratings downgraded Israel's credit rating from A+ to A with a negative outlook.

Israeli daily Globes reported this somber outlook, highlights how deep the country's financial woes have become. Even if Israel were to cease its military campaigns by the end of this year, economic recovery would be slow, with a return to substantial growth not expected until 2029, when the GDP could finally approach four percent.

An analysis published by Hebrew Daily Yedioth Ahronoth's online outlet, citing official sources, paints a bleak picture of Israel's mounting war costs. Over the past year, the conflict has drained $6.6 billion (25 billion shekels) from the economy. The daily expenditure for Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon alone stands at a staggering $133 million (500 million shekels), a figure that continues to strain national resources.

One particularly costly event was the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which involved the use of 100 bunker-buster bombs, including depleted uranium munitions, in a densely populated area of Beirut. The financial cost of this single operation was reported to be $6.6 million. Such military actions, while aimed at security objectives, are further eroding Israel's already fragile economic standing.

In addition to war costs, Israel is grappling with a financial lifeline delay. According to a source from the Israeli Finance Ministry, the postponement of a critical $4.8 billion aid package from the U.S. until next year has forced Tel Aviv to revise its 2024 budget for the third time. The delay in American support, coupled with spiraling war expenses, has complicated Israel's economic recovery efforts.

As the conflict rages on, the impact on Israel's domestic economy is severe. Over 60,000 businesses are expected to close by the end of the year, primarily due to the country's deteriorating financial situation. The tourism industry, once a vital sector, continues to suffer heavily, with ongoing cancellations by major airlines further eroding the economy.

The economic forecast for Israel remains grim. The country faces an uphill battle toward recovery with escalating military costs, plummeting business confidence, and growing isolation from global markets. Even if hostilities were to end soon, the economic damage done would likely persist for years, leaving Israel in a precarious position as it seeks stability in an increasingly uncertain world. 

The broader question now remains: will Israel's leadership prioritize peace and economic recovery, or will it continue down a path that, while pursuing security goals, may ultimately lead to long-term financial ruin? Only time will tell, but the cost of inaction on the economic front grows steeper with each passing day.

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IndraStra Global: Israel's Economic Slowdown Amid War: An Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
Israel's Economic Slowdown Amid War: An Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
By Rula Gabr
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