S&P Global Mobility: Autonomous Vehicles on the Rise in the U.S.

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In a September 9, 2024, blog post, Stephanie Brinley, Associate Director of AutoIntelligence at S&P Global Mobility, discusses the growing momentum of self-driving cars in the U.S. market. After a slowdown in 2022 and 2023, mid-2024 saw renewed progress in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, particularly in the ride-hailing sector. Over the summer, the AV industry made steady advancements, with Waymo continuing to lead the field. Meanwhile, GM's Cruise AV division faced setbacks, though these challenges may provide important lessons that ultimately strengthen the company.
Although the development of autonomous vehicles has progressed more slowly than predicted in the 2017-18 period, Brinley highlights the immense potential of this technology to revolutionize the transportation of people and goods. The future of AVs remains promising, fueling optimism about the industry's long-term impact and growth.

Waymo

In the summer of 2024, Alphabet, Waymo's parent company, announced plans to invest up to $5 billion in the self-driving startup, which also introduced the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system. Waymo currently operates nearly 800 autonomous vehicles in California, with more in Phoenix, and remains the only company actively charging fares, though GM's Cruise is expected to resume soon.
The new sixth-generation system features a more affordable sensor setup with improved resolution, range, and computing power. Its optimized sensor suite covers 360-degree views around the vehicle, up to 500 meters away, and functions reliably in various weather conditions, day or night. By refining sensor technology and placement, Waymo has reduced the number of sensors while maintaining safety redundancies. This modular system allows easy swapping of sensing components based on specific environmental needs, such as enhanced cleaning for colder regions. It is also designed to handle challenging weather conditions, including extreme heat, fog, rain, and hail.
Earlier in 2024, Waymo began testing robotaxi services on San Francisco highways using the fifth-generation system, following months of paid rides on city streets. Service expansions have also started in Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. 
In July 2024, Waymo partnered with electric vehicle company Zeekr to test robotaxis on public roads in San Francisco, about a year later than initially planned. By the end of August 2024, Waymo had doubled its weekly paid robotaxi rides in the U.S. to 100,000, up from 50,000 in May.
However, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is investigating Waymo for potential safety risks, including incidents of collisions with "clearly visible" objects. The investigation is still in its early stages, and it remains unclear whether the sixth-generation system will address these concerns. In 2023, Waymo reduced its focus on its commercial delivery service, Via, to prioritize its Waymo One ride-hailing program.

Cruise Automation

Cruise Automation, a subsidiary of GM, faced a major setback in October 2023 when it was involved as a secondary vehicle in a pedestrian accident. This incident led to months-long suspension of Cruise's operations, heightened scrutiny of its safety measures, an independent investigation, and a significant leadership overhaul, highlighting the challenges in the industry.
GM seized the opportunity to restructure and refocus Cruise, reaffirming its commitment to the company despite the challenges. In mid-2024, GM increased its investment in Cruise, with CEO Mary Barra stating that the accident prompted Cruise to raise its safety standards. Instead of merely surpassing the average driver, Cruise now aims to be "better than a role-model driver."
Despite this, GM canceled the Origin AV shuttle project, instead focusing on the first-generation Bolt EVs in the test fleet and a future autonomous vehicle based on the next-generation Ultium-powered Bolt EUV.
Cruise resumed operations in April 2024 with a small fleet of human-driven vehicles in Phoenix, gradually expanding to Dallas and Houston. However, it has not yet regained its full operating permissions in California.
In August 2024, GM announced plans to offer Cruise robotaxis through Uber's platform and revived discussions around a level-4 autonomous driving system in the context of Cruise and a Cadillac concept car. Cadillac may serve as a launch platform for personal-use autonomous vehicles. GM has scheduled an Investor Day for October 2024, promising more details on its future plans for Cruise and autonomous vehicle development.

Tesla

Tesla continues to label its automated driving assist system as "Full Self-Driving" (FSD), even though it currently operates at a Level 2-plus capability. The latest version is referred to as "supervised full self-driving." The company is close to achieving accurate autonomous driving and transforming its fleet into robotaxis. Still, it has postponed the planned reveal of its robotaxi from August to October 10, 2024.
CEO Elon Musk has hinted at a potential Airbnb or Uber-style model, where Tesla owners could rent out their vehicles via a Tesla platform while retaining ownership and maintenance responsibilities. The upcoming October 2024 event is expected to address Tesla’s progress toward self-driving technology. The full rollout of this program is anticipated to take several years, potentially launching around 2026-27.

Where Are We Now?

Despite the early expectations for widespread deployment of  AVs by this decade not being met, the industry has shown resilience in the face of setbacks. The COVID-19 pandemic slowed development and created economic strain for automakers, but the industry has continued to advance. Some manufacturers prioritized electric vehicle (EV) development over autonomous technology, which, combined with reduced investor interest in tech startups, contributed to slower progress. From 2021 to 2023, AV technology advanced, but the scale of the challenge kept deployment slow.
In 2024, the AV industry has seen significant progress while facing capital shortages for development. Some AV startups have received investments from their parent companies, and notable advancements have been made in mainland China, where regulations, pilot zones, and AV testing licenses have been established. This progress instills hope for the industry's future.
According to S&P Global Mobility's September 2024 Autonomy Forecasts, autonomous vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to grow slowly, with about 230,000 autonomous light vehicles projected to be sold by 2034, representing less than 1.5% of the market. Mainland China, by comparison, is forecasted to see around 1.5 million AV sales by 2034 or 5% of light-vehicle sales. Europe is expected to lag behind the U.S. and China, with only 37,000 AV sales by 2034.

Looking Ahead

The road to large-scale deployment of AVs is a complex and multifaceted challenge. The U.S. market has witnessed renewed optimism in 2024, with significant investments and notable technological breakthroughs in the sector. This progress reassures us that the difficulties, while substantial, are not insurmountable. Technical obstacles, such as ensuring safety in all weather conditions, refining sensor technologies, and developing reliable AI for decision-making, continue to slow progress. Regulatory issues also pose challenges, as governments and agencies must develop comprehensive frameworks to ensure AVs' safe and ethical deployment. These regulatory frameworks vary by region, adding complexity to companies trying to scale globally.
Beyond technical and regulatory barriers, there are also broader societal and economic concerns. Public acceptance of AVs, for example, remains mixed, with skepticism about safety and job displacement in industries like trucking and ride-hailing. Furthermore, the high costs of developing, testing, and scaling AV technology have led to financial constraints for many startups and even established automakers. As a result, progress toward mass adoption has been slower than many had anticipated just a few years ago.
This slower-than-expected trajectory has fueled speculation that the widespread deployment of AV technology may remain out of reach for the foreseeable future. However, it's important to remember that AV technology, like the hydrogen economy, holds tremendous potential. Despite the complexity and scale of the challenges involved, it's not a question of if but when full-scale deployment will become a reality. This uncertainty leaves the timeline for AV adoption fluid, with no clear consensus on when autonomous vehicles will dominate the roads, but the potential remains.
IndraStra Global Staff has not edited this story, which is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.

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