Recent Hamas Strike Sends Shockwaves Through the Middle East

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: People standing on a rooftop watch as a ball of fire and smoke rises above a building in Gaza City on Oct. 7, 2023, during an Israeli airstrike that hit the Palestine Tower building. / Source: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images
Cover Image Attribute: People standing on a rooftop watch as a ball of fire and smoke rises above a building in Gaza City on Oct. 7, 2023, during an Israeli airstrike that hit the Palestine Tower building. / Source: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images

Hamas militants' shocking attack on Israel this past Saturday, resulting in the tragic loss of over 1,200 lives and numerous kidnappings, has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. The aftermath of this event is prompting Israel, its adversaries, and its primary ally, the United States, to reassess their strategies in the region as the situation risks escalating into a broader conflict.

Israel's anticipated ground operation against Hamas in Gaza, along with the response from Iran and its network of allied Islamist groups in the region, has the potential to redefine the power dynamics in the Middle East and reshape the future of the region. "Hamas carried out this devastating attack with the intention of altering the balance not just between Hamas and Israel but also between Israel and the coalition of Iranian supporters and proxies," said retired Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of research for Israeli military intelligence. "Now, Israel seeks to recalibrate this balance by removing Hamas from Gaza."

If Israel succeeds in dismantling Hamas as the dominant force in Gaza, it would reverse a critical outcome of the recent events - the erosion of the long-standing perception of Israel's superior military and intelligence capabilities. Following the rapid breach of Israeli border fortifications and the occupation of military bases by Hamas fighters, a tragic loss of life ensued, marking one of the worst incidents since the Holocaust.

This attack has also challenged the narrative, often promoted by countries such as Turkey and Qatar and even within segments of the Israeli establishment, that Hamas had moderated its original ideological stance, which aimed to eliminate any Jewish presence between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. In an effort to present a more moderate image, Hamas issued a policy statement in 2017, framing its conflict as being with "the Zionist project" rather than Jews and hinting at the acceptance of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza while still rejecting Israel's right to exist.

Image Attribute: A man walks with mattresses through destruction in the Gaza Strip's Jabalia refugee camp on October 11, 2023, following overnight Israeli airstrikes amid continuing battles between Israel and the Hamas movement. / Source: AFP / Mahmud Hams

Image Attribute: A man walks with mattresses through destruction in the Gaza Strip's Jabalia refugee camp on October 11, 2023, following overnight Israeli airstrikes amid continuing battles between Israel and the Hamas movement. / Source: AFP / Mahmud Hams

The recent horrors in Gaza have also shattered the belief, championed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that the Palestinian issue could be relegated to a manageable nuisance while Israel pursued new relationships in the Arab world. "The Netanyahu doctrine that you can ignore the Palestinians without consequences has been shattered," said Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel and Palestine at the International Crisis Group.

The increased casualties on the Israeli side on Saturday exceeded the total from the entire Second Intifada of 2000-2005, underscoring the gravity of the situation. Consequently, the United States is compelled to re-engage in the Middle East after three consecutive administrations had sought to shift their focus to other global challenges.

The Biden administration has dispatched two carrier groups to the Eastern Mediterranean to deter Iran and Hezbollah from joining the conflict, with the potential to spark a regional war involving Iran and Persian Gulf nations. The U.S. is also rapidly providing military support to Israel.

Israel's adversaries celebrated the perceived vulnerability displayed by the country's military and intelligence services on Saturday. Despite this, Israel's actual military capabilities remain largely intact, with its powerful air force resuming airstrikes on Gaza within hours of the initial attack.

While the situation has revealed the underestimation of Hamas by Israeli officials, experts still regard Israel as the strongest military in the region. "They're now especially motivated to seek vengeance against a number of longtime adversaries," says Colin Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group.

President Biden has called for a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming" Israeli response, emphasizing adherence to the laws of war. Biden's comparison of Hamas's actions to the worst actions of the Islamic State has prompted some in Israel to interpret it as a green light for a campaign in Gaza similar to the 2017 operations to oust the Islamic State from Mosul and Raqqa. However, unlike Gaza, Mosul and Raqqa were not blockaded, allowing many civilians to escape to safety.

Image Attribute: Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from Ashkelon in southern Israel, on October 8, 2023. / Source: Amir Cohen/Reuters

Image Attribute: Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from Ashkelon in southern Israel, on October 8, 2023. / Source: Amir Cohen/Reuters

The looming Israeli ground campaign against Hamas, which could result in high urban combat casualties, will determine the commitment of Iran and Hezbollah to the Palestinian cause. Hezbollah remained relatively passive in previous Gaza conflicts, observing mutual deterrence agreements. However, Hezbollah possesses a formidable arsenal of Iranian-supplied precision missiles that could inflict substantial damage on Israel's infrastructure and military facilities.

For now, the risk of an unintended escalation remains, with limited skirmishes along the border increasing the likelihood of a full-blown conflict. The situation is further complicated by Iran's "unification of the arenas" doctrine, which aims to improve coordination among Tehran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies in their confrontation with Israel. The eviction of Hamas from Gaza would severely undermine this doctrine, potentially prompting Iran to expand the conflict to maintain its regional influence.

As the situation unfolds, there are growing concerns about the potential for a regional conflict. Although it is not the desired outcome for any party involved, the escalation appears to be moving in that direction. The pressing concern for now is the removal of Hamas from Gaza, and the day-after questions regarding governance and Israel's willingness to occupy the territory remain on hold.

In the current climate, the consensus is clear: Hamas cannot continue to operate in its current capacity. The focus is on countering the threat posed by the group, even if it means taking drastic measures.

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IndraStra Global: Recent Hamas Strike Sends Shockwaves Through the Middle East
Recent Hamas Strike Sends Shockwaves Through the Middle East
By IndraStra Global News Team
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