China's Rocket Force Shifts Strategy Toward Nuclear Triad: Analyst

By IndraStra Global Editoraial Team

Cover Image Attribute: In Beijing on July 31, 2023, an image captures Chinese President Xi Jinping at the center, joined by Gen. Wang Houbin, the recently appointed commander of China's rocket force, positioned at the top left, and Gen. Xu Xisheng, the political commissar, positioned at the top right. The photograph was taken by Li Gang and published by Xinhua via AP.

This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also holds the role of the military's top commander, made changes in the leadership of the specialized unit responsible for managing China's conventional and nuclear missiles within the People's Liberation Army (PLA)/(中国人民解放军).
This reorganization within the PLA Rocket Force (中国人民解放军火箭军) indicates a notable shift in Xi's nuclear strategy towards the concept known as the "nuclear triad." This approach involves a "three-pronged force" structure that allows for launching nuclear missiles from land, sea, and air, all under a unified command system. Analysts caution that this adjustment aims to enhance China's nuclear deterrence capabilities, ultimately increasing the perceived threat to U.S. security.

Adopting the Concept of "Nuclear Triad"

On Monday, Xi Jinping appointed Wang Houbin, formerly the deputy commander of the Navy, and Xu Xisheng, previously the political commissar of the Air Force’s Southern Theater Command, to assume the roles of commander and political commissar within the rocket force.
According to Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow based in Singapore at the think tank Pacific Forum, the recent developments signify a shift toward modernizing and enhancing the effectiveness of the nuclear deterrent. This approach involves adopting the concept of a "nuclear triad," encompassing three distinct methods of deploying nuclear missiles or deterrence. Neill explained that this transition focuses on deploying nuclear weapons on aircraft and submarines rather than relying solely on land-based missile systems. He further emphasized that for China to establish itself as a contemporary nuclear power with assertive and offensive capabilities, it must attain the capability to launch nuclear weapons from various platforms, thereby keeping potential adversaries uncertain and wary.

New Leadership

Wang and Xu are set to take over the roles previously held by Li Yuchao and Xu Zhongbo.
Li and his deputies, Zhang Zhenzhong and Liu Guangbin are said to have been detained in connection with an anti-corruption inquiry.
Xi's decision to appoint former Navy and Air Force leaders as heads of the rocket force implies his intention to establish a consolidated command structure that unifies nuclear weapon capabilities across the three branches of the armed forces. According to Chang Ching, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies based in Taipei, this move signifies an inevitable progression wherein the Navy's and air force's nuclear defense and offense capabilities will ultimately be integrated. Chang believed that nuclear weapons experts from the Navy and Air Force may have previously served within the rocket force before this leadership reshuffle, indicating China's shift toward a three-in-one unified command chain for its nuclear forces. In addition, there is speculation about whether Wang and Xu have experience in the Navy's nuclear missile unit or the air force's bomber squadron, which, if confirmed, would lend support to the notion of a coordinated strategy.

Unwavering Devotion

Neill indicated that in the event China is broadening its nuclear initiatives, Xi Jinping is demanding unwavering devotion to the Communist Party throughout the PLA, mainly from individuals who could potentially be responsible for initiating nuclear actions.
This is the reason behind Xi's initiation of the latest phase of his campaign against corruption, even though corruption remains a deeply entrenched issue that the party is grappling with, Neill added.
On the other hand, Yao Cheng, a former PLA navy officer who sought asylum in the U.S. in 2016, proposed that Xi might have lost control over the rocket force and asserted that the PLA is progressively becoming less inclined to pledge allegiance to the Chinese leader.
Yao described Xi's anti-corruption purges as "discriminatory," which have ensnared numerous military officers during his ten-year rule and caused a significant number of generals to turn against Xi. As a result, many are now reluctant to participate in Xi's endeavors, he asserted.

Loss of Authority?

Yao additionally criticized the incoming commander of the rocket force, Wang, with whom he had served in the Navy, labeling him as an "incompetent" leader.
“He’s someone who is obedient and follows the boss’s lead. His weakness is that he has long served as a staff officer, who has never led troops and lacks specialties. He can’t possibly manage the rocket force well because, for one, he’s an amateur whom the elite force will be unconvinced with and look down on,” Yao communicated to VOA Mandarin via Zoom on Tuesday.
In late June, Yao was the first to disclose that the departing commander of the force, Li, was being investigated for corruption. This came after individuals familiar with the matter shared with Yao that Li's son might have disclosed sensitive information to the U.S.
He went on to reveal that Ju Qiansheng, the commander of the PLA Strategic Support Force, was also facing an investigation.
Yao put forward his belief that senior officers within the rocket force may have leaked intelligence to the U.S., divulging details about the locations and functions of the force's nine bases. This information had been included in a 255-page report released the previous year by the China Aerospace Studies department at the U.S. Military's Air University.
Yao maintains that all of these developments signify the apprehension among PLA officers regarding the potential outbreak of a conflict between China and the U.S. centered around Taiwan.

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