Copper Prices Slip After the Unveiling of China's Macroeconomic Data

Via Syndicated Feed


Yesterday, the price of copper decreased by 0.03% to reach ₹729/Kg, primarily due to concerns in the market regarding a potential economic recession overseas, the risk of a United States (US) debt default, and discouraging economic data domestically. Additionally, copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses experienced a significant decline of 12.3% compared to the previous Friday. The demand for industrial metals, including copper, in China has been weak during the second quarter, typically a period of high demand, due to a slow economic rebound and a sluggish export market.

Chart Attribute: Copper Rate in INR/Kg / Source: The Economic Times (Date: 15 May 2023)

The latest inflation figures from China have raised concerns about the strength of the country's economic rebound. Recent data revealed that China's production of copper cathode reached 970,000 mt in April 2023, marking an increase of 18,600 mt or 2% compared to the previous month and a significant rise of 17.2% compared to the same period in 2022. The actual output exceeded expectations by 16,100 mt, surpassing the anticipated 953,900 mt. From January to April, the total output reached 3.68 million mt, demonstrating a year-on-year growth of 352,900 mt or 10.6%. The Maintenance activities of six smelters in April resulted in a production cut of 29,500 mt. However, due to the shorter statistical cycle of some large smelters in March, the output in April still experienced a month-on-month increase of 35,400 mt.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently experiencing a situation where investors are closing out their long positions. This is evident as there has been a decrease in open interest by 2.21%, resulting in a settlement at 5396. Additionally, the prices have declined by 0.2 rupees. Currently, the support level for Copper is identified at ₹724.9/Kg, and if it falls below this level, there is a possibility of testing the ₹720.9 level. On the other hand, resistance is expected to be observed at ₹733.4. If the prices move above this level, there is a likelihood of testing the ₹737.9 price range.

Global Implications


The unveiling of China's macroeconomic data for the first quarter failed to generate a significant rise in copper prices. It appears that there was a pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior, resulting in profit-taking and, subsequently, weaker prices. The evident contradiction in the open interest indicates a wave of investors liquidating their long positions in the LME copper market. Despite this, from a fundamental perspective, there has historically been a strong correlation between China's industrial production growth and copper prices. As a result, we anticipate that the recent influx of Chinese macroeconomic data is poised to uplift copper prices in the upcoming months.

Conversely, the demand for copper in the US is being influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties. The US Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its cycle of interest rate increases, and we anticipate that the final hike in May will be more accommodative due to the worsening economic situation. As a result, the value of the US dollar is expected to enter a bear market, which could provide a favorable boost to copper prices.

IndraStra Global Staff has not edited this story, which is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.

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IndraStra Global: Copper Prices Slip After the Unveiling of China's Macroeconomic Data
Copper Prices Slip After the Unveiling of China's Macroeconomic Data
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