Despite China's COVID Reopening, Asia's Factory Activity Contracts

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: Aly Song/Reuters
Cover Image Attribute: Aly Song/Reuters

On February 1, 2023, surveys revealed that factory activity in Asia declined in January. The positive effects of China's reopening from COVID were not enough to counterbalance the negative impact of slowing economic growth in the US and Europe. This highlights the delicate nature of the region's economic recovery.

According to a private sector survey, factory activity in China contracted at a slower pace in January after the government lifted stringent COVID restrictions. The softening of input prices also provided early indications of improvement in Asia, as the rate of decline in output slowed in Japan and South Korea, according to the surveys.

However, some analysts are still determining Asia's ability to withstand the adverse effects of decreasing global demand and persistently high inflation. Toru Nishihama, the chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, stated that although the worst of Asia's economic decline is over, the future outlook is uncertain due to weaknesses in major export markets such as the US and Europe. He added that as the recovery from COVID-19 progresses, Asian economies require a new source of growth, but no such source has emerged so far.

Japan's au Jibun Bank PMI remained at 48.9 in January, the same as in the previous month, as manufacturers suffered from weak demand worldwide. However, the Japan PMI survey indicated supplier delays were the least prevalent since February 2021. As a result, the inflation rate for both input and output prices was the slowest in 16 months.

South Korean factory activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in January, with a reading of 48.5, an increase from 48.2 in December, but still below the 50-point benchmark. The survey revealed that while new orders in South Korea decreased for the seventh consecutive month in January, the rate of decrease was slightly slower than in the previous month. Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the near-term outlook for the South Korean manufacturing sector appears challenging. Still, firms remain optimistic that global economic conditions will improve and drive demand.

According to PMI surveys, manufacturing activity grew in January in Indonesia and the Philippines but decreased in Malaysia and Taiwan.

On January 31, International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly increased its forecast for global growth in 2023 due to strong demand in the US and Europe and the lifting of COVID restrictions in China. However, the IMF noted that the global economy will still slow down from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and cautioned that the world is vulnerable to a recession.

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IndraStra Global: Despite China's COVID Reopening, Asia's Factory Activity Contracts
Despite China's COVID Reopening, Asia's Factory Activity Contracts
By IndraStra Global News Team
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