US Dollar Loses Steam, ECB Weighs Bigger Rate Hike

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: The Seat of the European Central Bank and Frankfurt Skyline at dawn, as seen from west / Source: DXR, Wikimedia Commons
Cover Image Attribute: The Seat of the European Central Bank and Frankfurt Skyline at dawn, as seen from the west / Source: DXR, Wikimedia Commons

Euro gained against the U.S. dollar for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday (July 20). This followed a report from Reuters that European Central Bank (ECB) officials are mulling a larger-than-anticipated 50 basis-point interest rate hike at their meeting on Thursday (July 21) to combat record-high inflation. 

The Euro's recovery coincided with declining expectations for an aggressive 100 basis point boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve this month, which caused the dollar to weaken. This moved the Euro farther away from the sub-parity levels of last week.

The money markets have priced in a 60 percent likelihood of a 50 basis point rise on Thursday, up from a 25 percent chance on Monday, driving the Euro to $1.0269, up 1.2 percent on the day and its highest level since July 6. At $1.0229, it was last up 0.87 percent. The Euro has recovered after last week's decline below $1.00, its first time below parity since 2002. At a value of 106.7, the dollar was 0.7% weaker as measured against a basket of currencies. However, the index is still quite close to the 20-year high of 109.29, which was reached the previous week.

ECB's Role


Thursday will mark the ECB's first rate hike in more than a decade, despite a challenging economic environment aggravated by the Ukraine conflict. Inflation is all-time high and increasing, economic growth has stalled, and an Italian political crisis has investors on edge. According to the sources, the decision to raise rates by 25 or 50 basis points is still up for grabs. Currently, ECB is under increasing pressure to take more action due to rate hikes implemented by other major central banks in larger increments, such as 75 or even 100 basis points.

In addition, there is an anticipation that the ECB will propose a plan to assist indebted nations such as Italy on the bond market to mitigate the impact of rising interest rates. According to sources, the agreement will demand adherence to European Commission guidelines regarding reforms and fiscal discipline.

Nord Stream 1 


Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will resume on Thursday following the completion of scheduled maintenance, albeit at a rate lower than its daily capacity of about 160 million cubic meters (mcm). On July 11, the pipeline, responsible for more than one-third of Russian natural gas exports to the European Union, was shut down for ten days of yearly maintenance. Last month, the energy giant Gazprom, which the Kremlin controls, reduced gas exports through the route to 40 percent of its capacity, citing delays in the return of a turbine Siemens Energy was servicing in Canada.

Analysts and traders are hesitant to turn positive on the Euro due to continued concerns about the supply of natural gas (from Russia), its impact on its economy, and how aggressive the ECB can be. Despite this, they remain cautiously optimistic about the Euro.

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IndraStra Global: US Dollar Loses Steam, ECB Weighs Bigger Rate Hike
US Dollar Loses Steam, ECB Weighs Bigger Rate Hike
By IndraStra Global News Team
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