German Economy Stagnates in 2nd Quarter, Recession Looms

Cover Image Attribute: Image by  Nikolaus Bader  from  Pixabay   According to data released by Germany's Federal Statistics Office (Dest...

Cover Image Attribute: Image by Nikolaus Bader from Pixabay
Cover Image Attribute: Image by Nikolaus Bader from Pixabay 

According to data released by Germany's Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on Friday, after growing by 0.8 percent in the first quarter, the country's economy stagnated in the second quarter of this year. The quarterly percentage change in GDP remained at 0% from the previous quarter, missing the estimate of +0.1%. This was because of the upward effect of higher household and government expenditure, which was, in turn, balanced by the downward impact of higher exports and imports.


Chart Attribute: German GDP QoQ / Source: Germany's Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Chart Attribute: German GDP QoQ / Source: Germany's Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)


The challenging circumstances surrounding the world economy, which include the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, disrupted supply chains, rising inflation, and the war between Russia and Ukraine, were reflected in the short-term economic development. As a result, the most current projections expected that Europe's largest economy would increase by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, but it expanded by 0.8 percent.


Germany's economic model was based on less expensive to produce and transport, with prices pinned down in long-term Russian gas contracts, which has contributed to the country's economic prosperity for decades. But, the war in Ukraine ended that model as we knew it. So, to wean itself totally from Russian gas, Germany is searching further afield for new sources, such as shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and Qatar, simultaneously accelerating its transition to renewable electricity generation.


Earlier in April, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner rejected a European Union embargo on Russian gas imports, saying that would hurt Germany more than the Kremlin. In the same month, the German central bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) warned that a sudden embargo on gas imports from Russia would reduce the German economy's growth rate by five percentage points.


The Effect on German Industries


The German industrial units absorb 30% of total gas consumption. Before the conflict, more than half of all gas supplies came from Russia, but by the beginning of June, that proportion had dropped to 35%. This is one of the significant factors that may halt output at several industrial powerhouses during the incoming winter months, as the country may need to ration energy.


According to the findings of a survey that was published on Monday by DIHK (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag; the association of German chambers of commerce and industry), sixteen percent of manufacturing companies have stated that in response to higher energy prices, they intend to either reduce the number of goods they produce or completely withdraw from some areas of business.


As per the ifo Business Climate Index, German businesses have become more pessimistic about their current situation and the upcoming six months. As a result, their think tank index has dropped to 88.6 this month, down from 92.2 in June, marking its lowest level since June 2020.


In a nutshell, per the current scenarios, Germany will enter a deeper recession than most other countries in the coming months.




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IndraStra Global: German Economy Stagnates in 2nd Quarter, Recession Looms
German Economy Stagnates in 2nd Quarter, Recession Looms
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