Russia and China's Evolving Roles in Kazakhstan Unrest

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: Kazakhstan troops in Almaty on Thursday morning, January 5, 2022.
Source: Reuters

By IndraStra Global News Team

A wave of protests swept Kazakhstan and spiraled into violent unrest, and initially, China's response remained largely muted about the crisis unfolding in the Central Asian country with which it shares a 1,782-kilometer border, saying it was an internal affair that it hoped would soon stabilize. On the other hand, by January 6, the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), began sending troops to Kazakhstan at Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev’s invitation. In response to that, the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) vowed to intervene in the Kazakhstan unrest if needed but also backed the Kazakh government’s ongoing actions – a sign of approval for Russia’s intervention. 

According to an official readout of conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev published by Chinese state media; "China opposes external forces deliberately creating unrest in Kazakhstan and staging a color revolution". Xi also praised the Kazakh president for his decisive and strong initiative at the critical moment that quickly calmed down the situation.

China has an important interest in Kazakh stability; the country supplies at least 5 percent of Chinese natural gas imports. Plus, it accommodates one of the six Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) corridors which passes through the region connecting China respectively to Europe and West Asia. Through the BRI, Beijing is seeking under the guise of the modernized revival of the Great Silk Road to spread Chinese influence in states involved in the initiative, covering an extensive network of transportation and logistics, energy, trade, and financial ties.

However, this particular event in Kazakhstan has confirmed the standard narrative which was prevailing in the last several decades, and especially since the Chinese launching of the BRI in 2013, the two powers (China & Russia) adhere to a functional division of tasks in Central Asia, in which China concentrates on economic activity while Russia acts as the security guarantor for the region. Despite the fact, in the past few years, the Sino—Kazakh bilateral relationship has deepened considerably in economic and political/security terms. But, China still treads wisely in Russia's backyard. 

There are reasons for China to be on the backfoot in the current Kazakhstan crisis. And those are;

• With its latest support to Russia, In coming years (if not months), China will surely try to push and achieve a long-pending dream to establish an SCO development bank i.e., Shanghai Cooperation Organization Interbank Consortium, and to develop the SCO as a free trade area. To date, these measures were steadfastly opposed by Russia. 

• Also, China will now push for further integration of SCO's Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), currently based out of Bishkek (in  Kyrgyzstan) into Central Asian countries' individual or Russian-led security infrastructure which will eventually provide China, overt surveillance capabilities on Anti-Chinese elements in the region such as Uyghurs separatists. And, this time, Russia will not be able to ignore or stop China because of the latter's scope, weightage, and power in the region.

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LATEST DEVELOPMENT:

According to the state-run broadcaster Khabar 24 report's, citing a source from Kazakhstan's Interior Ministry; the counter-terrorism operation in Kazakhstan has been raised to "critical red". Till last Friday, over 3,000 people have been detained in Kazakhstan in connection with the riots, 26 armed rioters have been killed, and 18 were injured in clashes with security forces.

With reporting by BBC, Reuters, and South China Morning Post.

 

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