Canada Poised for Post-Pandemic Comeback After Vaccination Ramp-up

By BMO Financial Group

By BMO Financial Group

Canada's recent rapid ramp-up in vaccinations, and the possibility of eventually surpassing the U.S. – even on second doses – by August, point to a strong economic rebound in the second half of the year, according to a new report from BMO Economics.

"Canada is likely to post stronger growth rates through much of that period," said Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group. "This also partly reflects a comeback from a deeper pandemic hole for the economy; third-wave restrictions bit Canada much harder, with growth likely stalling at best in the second quarter."

"After a sluggish start, Canada has found its stride on the vaccine rollout," noted Mr. Porter. "That, combined with a recent fast fall in new virus cases, will help support a partial re-opening over the next month – fuelling a summer economic recovery."

Mr. Porter observed that for an activity to return to something closer to pre-pandemic, there will need to be progress on full vaccination rates. "The next step in Canada's vaccination process is still important, and it's no time to let the foot off the gas. For Canada's economy – and critically, its job market – to recover fully requires the hardest hit sectors to recover. Ultimately, that requires full vaccination of a majority of the adult population – both to support the confidence of individuals to engage more fully and in policymakers to allow such."

The report projects that Canada could see more than 80 percent of its population (12 and older) fully vaccinated by August, reaching 88 percent by November. The same timelines in the U.S. show percentages of around 73 percent and 80 percent, respectively.

The report also predicts that current struggling industries, such as restaurants, bars, hotels, in-person entertainment, personal care services, and travel, will come roaring back once most of the population is inoculated. "These industries will benefit from tremendous pent-up demand and substantial excess household savings accumulated during the pandemic," said Mr. Porter. "The spirited comeback in the U.S. restaurant sector in recent weeks is a very positive omen for Canada's hard-hit industry; it had been tracking the U.S. closely until the second-and third-wave restrictions, and could see the now-wide gap close rapidly later this year."

To view the full report, visit this link.

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