GIQ Survey: US-China Trade Deal Would Propel Brent Beyond $60/bl
IndraStra Global

GIQ Survey: US-China Trade Deal Would Propel Brent Beyond $60/bl

What is the most important development to propel Brent crude oil prices higher out of the current $55-$60 range?

Chart Attribute: What is the most important development to propel Brent crude oil prices higher out of the current $55-$60 range? 

Gulf Intelligence (Nov. 7, 2019), Almost half (44%) of those polled in GIQ’s monthly Energy Market Survey in October believe that a resolution to the US-China Trade War will be the most important enabler to propel Brent crude prices out of the $55-$60/bl range. 31% said deeper supply cuts by OPEC would be the most significant factor to do this while 25% said it would be a decrease in oil inventories to five-year averages.

Chart Attribute: The outlook for Oil Demand is a Bigger Concern for Markets than Oil Supply?

Chart Attribute: The outlook for Oil Demand is a Bigger Concern for Markets than Oil Supply? 


The uncertainty created by the ongoing tariff spat between the world’s two largest economies has undoubtedly weighed on global GDP and energy demand growth this year and coupled with ample global supply, has placed a natural cap on prices, particularly during the third quarter. 89% of the audience polled said the outlook for oil demand was a bigger concern for markets than supply (11%).

Brent crude prices in September averaged $62.83 a barrel and $59.71 in October.

Chart Attribute: Last week oil prices posted their biggest gain in a month-is it the start of a new bull run?

Chart Attribute: Last week oil prices posted their biggest gain in a month-is it the start of a new bull run?

A temporary blip upwards of $1-$2 during the last week of October, the biggest gain in a month, was short-lived, but when asked, 56% of the GIQ audience believed this could be the start of a bull run while 44% said not.

Chart Attribute: OPEC+ will need to hold an emergency meeting to reverse oil price decline with deeper supply cuts?

Chart Attribute: OPEC+ will need to hold an emergency meeting to reverse oil price decline with deeper supply cuts?

OPEC next meets in early December to decide on forward output policy, with current market expectations that the group may consider making further cuts. In early October, survey participants were asked whether the OPEC + group should hold an emergency meeting ahead of December to consider deepening production cuts to support prices; 59% agreed while 41% deemed it unnecessary.