OPEC & non-OPEC States are Producing Too Much Oil to Reverse Crude Price Decline, GI Markets Survey Says

October Oil Price Decline Cost Producers $500 Million a Day Approx.

Abu Dhabi, 10 November, 2018 (Gulf Intelligence) – The OPEC and non-OPEC alliance of 25 countries are currently producing too much oil to reverse an oil price decline that has seen Brent crude fall by about $10 a barrel over the last month and reduce their total revenue by $500 million a day, according to 66% of respondents to a Gulf Intelligence GIQ Oil Markets Survey of 100 energy industry professionals.

OPEC, which pumps about one-third of global supply, agreed in June to increase its total oil supply by one million barrels a day as the balance between supply and demand had tightened significantly through 2017 and the first half of this year as producers kept barrels off the market in an attempt to deflate a global oil glut and return inventories to historic averages.

Brent crude oil prices soared to $85 a barrel in early October in anticipation of U.S. sanctions being re-imposed on Iran on Nov. 5th and forcing their crude oil exports of 2 million barrels day off the international markets, triggering international traders such as Mercuria and Trafigura to warn prices could reach $100 a barrel by year’s end because there was no available replacement to Iranian oil.

“The severity of U.S. sanctions has clearly not turned out to be as robust as had been expected with the U.S. offering waivers to 8 countries, including China and India, Asia’s two largest importers,” said Sean Evers, Managing Partner, Gulf Intelligence. “President Trump was very transparent on the matter as he said bluntly in his first press conference after the mid-term elections that he gave the waivers because he wanted to reduce prices that acted ‘like a tax’ on Americans,” he said. 

U.S. production of shale oil, which has added 5 million barrels of oil to U.S. output over the last decade to move America onto a similar level as Saudi Arabia at around 11 million barrels a day, has also put downward pressure on oil prices. U.S. shale production levels will force Gulf Arab countries into stepping up their own investment in shale oil exploration, 62% of GIQ Survey respondents replied yes.

Brent crude oil prices have been rising over the last 2 years after a coalition of 25 OPEC and non-OPEC states agreed in late 2016 to slash oil supplies by 1.8 million barrels a day – prices have averaged at around $74 a barrel thus far this year, after dropping to an average of $45 in 2016 and $54 in 2017. The coalition of the world’s largest oil producers, which includes Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, should extend the Vienna Agreement into a third year to keep prices supported, 88% of those polled in the Gulf Intelligence Survey responded.

The OPEC non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews the monthly report on the overall conformity levels of the 25 countries participating in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, will meet in Abu Dhabi on Sunday Nov. 11th for the final meeting ahead of OPEC’s final meeting of the year in Vienna on Dec. 6th.