South Asian politics, whose dominant narrative is Indo-Pak relations, witnessed a unique idea of possibility of cooperation among the SAARC States. It was a retired senior Pakistani Army officer speaking in New Delhi on the crucial role governments and even militaries could play to address the challenges presented by Climate Change.
By Prateek Joshi
Graduate Student in International Relations from South Asian University, New Delhi
South Asian politics, whose dominant
narrative is Indo-Pak relations, witnessed a unique idea of possibility of cooperation
among the SAARC States. It was a retired senior Pakistani Army officer speaking
in New Delhi on the crucial role governments and even militaries could play to
address the challenges presented by Climate Change.
On 8th of
March, 2016, The South Asian University (a SAARC nations’ project), New Delhi,
organized a lecture “Climate Change and Security Implications: A Global
Perspective" by Lieutenant General Tariq Waseem Ghazi, the former defence
secretary to the Government of Pakistan.
Dr. Medha
Bisht (Assistant Professor in the International Relations department at the
University), who is also an expert on Water issues and Climate Change chaired
the lecture. She commenced the program by introducing Gen. Ghazi and began by
highlighting the need for understanding Climate Change as a link between the
geophysical and geopolitical developments. She emphasized on the potential of
Climate Change being a force which would reframe the core issues driving the
international diplomacy. Further, Dr. Bisht stated that the threats emerging
out of Climate Change would gradually blur the boundaries between the high and
low politics. With these words, she invited Gen. Ghazi to present his views
before the faculty and students.
Climate Change and Sceurity
The main focus
of Gen. Ghazi’s discussion was implications on security arising from Climate
Change. He recalled a significant climatic event in the year 2009, when the
Gulf Stream current of Atlantic Ocean suddenly turned powerful and hotter than
the previous years. Following its natural course, when it mixed with the
Arctic, it resulted in higher precipitation. The Polar vortex picked up this
precipitation, digressed from its natural course and fell on areas of Himalayas
which caused disastrous floods in Pakistan in 2010. Droughts in Sub-Saharan and
Northern Africa were a direct consequence of this climatic anomaly which
resulted in non-availability of food in this region. These developments added
to the political crisis, which was hitherto in a nascent stage. Precisely at
this juncture, an event took place in Tunisia, that is, the self-immolation of a
street vendor, which started a series of protests across the Middle East
and North African region, to which the world refers to as the Arab Spring. The events
it triggered are still being witnessed in the form of political turmoil, proxy
wars and widespread migrations. Contributing to this crisis, Gen. Ghazi referred
to Climate Change as a ‘threat multiplier’ or ‘an accelerant of instability’,
which have added to the existing global turmoil.
After this
brief introduction, he discussed the international initiatives on Climate
Change along with the statistical details of the alarming levels the global
pollution and carbon emissions had reached. The temperature increases in last
one and a half century were shown. Gen. Ghazi also pointed out that the years
2014 and 2015 were recorded as the warmest years in the United States of
America. Moreover, the mean sea level rose 4 cm in last 10 years. He stated
that this was not only an environmental crisis, but also a security crisis in
making. The crisis had not even spared the South Asian waters as the mean sea
level in the Arabian Sea also registered a notable rise. The growing emissions
also reduced the Global carbon budget, which means that if the emissions
continue unabated, it will have disastrous consequences on humankind.
Also, he
recalled the 2001 World
Disasters Report by the Red
Cross, which estimated 25 million environmental refugees. In light of these
facts, he was of a view that Climate change doesn’t have borders and it was
high time that states in South Asia work out a coordinated approach towards
tackling the menace of Climate Change. Marking the establishment of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change and the UNFCCC
as a positive trend in the global fight against Climate Change, he highlighted
the constructive role played by the numerous Climate Change negotiations(most
importantly the Kyoto
Protocol), lauding the deliberations of the recent Paris
Climate Summit of the UNFCCC.
Implications for South Asia
Coming to
South Asia, it was identified as vulnerable and listed amongst most crisis
ridden region characterized by rampant poverty, weak state institutions and
military conflicts. Gen. Ghazi stated that more than 750 million people were affected
by at least one type of disaster in South Asia, with India having large share
of the affected. In Pakistan’s hilly areas, snowline receded one kilometre over
the last 25 years. Bursting of glaciers, landslides and avalanches are on the
rise and about 2500 glacial lakes have been created due to the impact of Global
Warming. The conflict zone of Siachen glacier has
lost two Kilometres of its length and since conflict began, 17% of its ice mass
has reduced.
Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC)
In response to
the growing threats to global security and peace posed by Climate Change, the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change
was created in 2009, of which Gen. Ghazi is a member. The GMACCC is global
network of serving and retired military officers from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
USA and a other countries dedicated to the cause of mitigating the effects of Climate
Change. The group reaches out to governments and military institutions
worldwide to inculcate an awareness regarding Climate Change. The GMACCC has
opened a new arena by linking the implications of Climate Change for defence
institutions as the military forces too are directly affected by Climate Change.
For instance, the rise in mean sea levels will directly threaten the naval
bases. Also, he explained how the military too was involved in emissions as
military trucks, fighter jets and helicopter sorties result in massive fuel
consumption and emissions.
Climate Change and Shifting Borders:
Gen. Ghazi
took the discussion to the issue of South Asian borders, one of the most
sensitive issues dominating the South Asian politics. Stating the example of
the Sir Creek border issue between India and Pakistan, he told that how,
shifting of river courses due to Climate Change would make the border
demarcations based on rivers irrelevant. He suggested some strategies which the
governments across the world would require while charting out their action
plans to deal with this issue, like flexible response in terms of planning to
meet security needs, planning for displacement, anticipating climate risk, adjustments
in security analysis and scenarios in case of lack of resources.
The Need for Regional Approach
In South Asia,
India looks at Climate Change not from a regional framework but from an
international framework and therefore prefers to deal with this issue through
the United Nations platform. Concluding his discussion, Gen. Ghazi called for a
regional approach among the South Asian states, if the issue Climate Change had
to be tackled with seriousness. It was high time that a regional framework was
developed by the South Asian states on disaster preparedness.
Ending the
discussion, the Chair Dr. Bisht added a few more crucial points on how these
actions would be streamlined, the role of epistemic communities and the military
as key stakeholders in working towards making the world a better place to live
in. Lastly and most importantly, she mentioned how these initiatives could give
space to re-imagine South Asia.
Conclusion:
The gloomy
future which Climate Change has for the humankind is no secret anymore. With
carbon emissions and mean sea levels rising at an unabated and accelerating
pace, not only the international community but the military institutions
worldwide need to unite for this noble cause. Climate Change is an existential
issue and the survival of the entire humanity rests on how closely these
institutions cooperate with each other. The initiative by GMACCC comes at the
right time and can herald a new approach towards bringing the civilian and
military institutions worldwide together to work in harmony with a unified
strategy as the survival of our future generations rests on the effectiveness
of the efforts made today. Naturally, this means that the day will come when even arch-rivals
like India and Pakistan have to join hands in their efforts to tackle this
existential crisis.
About The Author:
Prateek Joshi, (TR RID: D-6383-2016), Pursuing
post graduate studies in International Relations from South Asian University,
New Delhi. His research areas include India's Foreign Policy, Pakistani
politics, Himalayan Geopolitics and Central Asian affairs.
This article was originally published at Swaraj Magazine on March 11, 2016. It has been republished on IndraStra.com with author's permission.
