The risk of ISIS employing chemical, biological, and radiological warfare agents is real. In fact, ISIS already has attacked with chemical agents. ISIS has mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are assisting in the development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas, alongside foreign experts. It also has reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from Iraq to Syria.
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham
BESA Center
Perspectives Paper No. 322
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY: The risk of ISIS employing chemical, biological, and radiological
warfare agents is real. In fact, ISIS already has attacked with chemical
agents. ISIS has mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are assisting in the
development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas, alongside
foreign experts. It also has reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials
from Iraq to Syria.
Since its
emergence, ISIS has sought chemical weapons and has used them against its opponents,
namely the Syrian opposition groups, Kurds, Iraqi and Syrian government forces.
In September
2014, around 40 Iraqi soldiers and Shia militiamen showed symptoms of chlorine
poisoning and many were hospitalized, consequent to the use in battle of bombs
with chlorine-filled cylinders.
Around the
same time, ISIS insurgents surrounded hundreds of Iraqi soldiers in the
Saqlawiyah district of northern Fallujah, and used chlorine gas to suffocate
them before detonating a car bomb. This resulted in the death of 300 Iraqi
soldiers.
In January
2015, weaponized chlorine gas was likely employed by ISIS in a suicide bombing
in northern Iraq against Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. Iraqi officials showed the
BBC videos in March 2015 that they say confirm Islamic State use of chlorine
gas in crude home-made bombs.
Three months
later, ISIS shelled several security checkpoints and residential areas in
Ramadi with chlorine gas-imbued bombs. This past August, ISIS launched 45
120mm-mortar shells tipped with mustard warheads against the Kurds in Makhmour,
Iraq, and the effects included burns, blisters, severe damage to the eyes,
respiratory system, and internal organs.
Since July of
last year, ISIS has repeatedly attacked Kurds with chemical weapons in the
strategic Syrian city of Kobane. At first, the ISIS used chlorine in Kobane and
later, by this August, mortar shells filled with mustard gas. During an attack
in Hasakah in August 2015, the same mustard weapons were used. The same weapon
was used shortly thereafter by the group while fighting in the town of Mare
near Alleppo.
In contrast to
chlorine, which ISIS succeeded in weaponizing, mustard agent in a powdery form
is regularly used too, which is a sophisticated albeit old weapon that probably
originated in the Iraqi army. This may be the outcome of the June 2014 capture
by ISIS of the huge Muthanna State Establishment, the main Iraqi chemical
weapons facility dating back to the regime of former Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein. Although the facility was heavily bombarded in 2003, it still contains
two bunkers containing chemical weapons.
Iraqi
Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim, in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon in July 2014, said: "The Government of Iraq requests the States
Members of the United Nations to understand the current inability of Iraq,
owing to the deterioration of the security situation, to fulfill its
obligations to destroy chemical weapons."
Around the
same time, ISIS captured approximately 40kg of uranium compounds at Mosul
University. The uranium – a weak radioactive material – was not enriched.
Remarkably, ISIS had already set up – possibly in Mosul University – a branch
dedicated to research and experiments of chemical weapons.
ISIS had also
mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are currently assisting the
development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas. Foreign
experts came from Chechnya and Southeast Asia as well.
Recently, ISIS
reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from Iraq to "secured
locations" inside Syria. It is highly likely that ISIS seeks chemical,
biological, and radiological materials for both military and civilian targets,
such as subways, food, and water supplies.
ISIS is an
even more brutal and radical group than al-Qaida, which has also pursued WMD.
Given the technological limitations that ISIS faces, their procuring of a nuclear
device is highly unlikely. However, the probability that the group will acquire
further chemical agents, and seek to obtain biological and radiological agents
for the first time – not necessarily weaponized – is high. ISIS could seek
these weapons in order to compensate for its military inferiority as well as
for retaliating against what ISIS regards as foreign interventions.
An attack
could occur anywhere across the globe.
ISIS does not display any degree of morality whatsoever and does not
fear the consequences of its deeds.
Carrying out
an attack with chemical, biological, or radiological weapons is not easy, given
the pressure now put on ISIS. In practical terms, various factors have to be
taken into account. Technologically, ISIS has a limited capability of producing
such weapons, but could hire outside experts or force experts to cooperate. It
could also utilize various existing production facilities, laboratories,
hospitals, and universities to create a crude weapon. ISIS is apparently incapable
of safely handling highly dangerous toxicants, pathogens, and radioisotopes,
but this should not constitute a bottleneck within a radical organization like
ISIS.
Some factories
in ISIS controlled areas may contain highly poisonous pesticides, particularly
organophosphorus compounds. Universities and certain civilian medical and
pharmaceutical facilities may contain hazardous biological materials such as
anthrax or cholera germs that were meant to be used for scientific research or
vaccine production. Clinics for cancer treatment or blood irradiation typically
use cesium 137 or cobalt 60, which can be utilized as radiological agents and
are long-lived – about 30 and 5 years respectively. While these can be employed
for regional radiological terrorism, smuggling radioactive materials across
border checkpoints would probably be detected.
In terms of
potential aerial delivery systems, ISIS could capture and use agricultural
spraying airplanes or unmanned aerial vehicles. ISIS could also infect
individuals with pathogens found in civilian facilities, and let them roam
freely among the public and across borders as rudimentary dispersal devices.
Whether or not more residual state-owned chemical weapons in an operational
condition are available for ISIS in Iraq and Syria, it appears that the group
endeavors to expand its own capabilities.
In short, the
current chaotic circumstances in the region are conducive to its efforts. Only
an incapacitating blow against the group will remove this threat.
The disruptive
processes generated by the Arab uprisings could still bring about some
unpredictable danger or crisis. While ISIS is one outcome of these upheavals,
its extreme and aggressive nature indicates that it would not hesitate to use
any means to achieve its goals.
The risk of
chemical, biological, and radiological warfare and terrorism are tangible
threats that must be dealt with now. The warning recently delivered by French
Prime Minister Manuel Valls concerning the possible employment of chemical or
biological agents by ISIS in Europe is noteworthy. Across the Middle East, the
chemical menace of ISIS is already evident, and may well increase.
About The Author:
About The Author:
Lt. Col.
(res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, a microbiologist, is a senior research associate at the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. Recognized as a top expert on
chemical and biological warfare in the Middle East, he is a former senior
intelligence analyst in the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Defense
Ministry.
BESA Center
Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the
Greg
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