By Behzad Khoshandam
The 2015
strategic crisis in Yemen is an extension of international politics in the Arab
Middle East. In fact, this crisis is the outcome of the efforts made to change
the direction of a regional balance, which has been already changing, through
aggressive measures as well as actions taken by Western and Arab countries in
the face of national interests of other model regional actors who play their
independent roles. In this effort, Saudi Arabia is serving as a proxy for those
Western and Arab powers.
Image Attribute: ABC News
The crisis in Yemen can be also assessed from the
viewpoint of the conflict between the interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia as a
result of efforts made to expand the influence of Middle East’s resistance
groups toward the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula. Therefore, this
crisis is the result of efforts made to prevent the rise of an emerging order
in the Persian Gulf and Bab-el-Mandeb regions, and a result of a more serious
campaign by the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council and the Saudi-led coalition
against Iran.
Therefore, the
rise and fall of the “Operation Decisive Storm” in Yemen was a major
manifestation of Saudi Arabia’s effort to seriously counter Iran's foreign
policy goals for the expansion of the resistance axis in the Middle East.
Various dimensions and critical consequences of the expansion of that axis for
the United States’ relations with Arab countries have been even reflected in
such important international papers as the New York Times.
When analyzing
trends, driving forces and effective actors in the evolutionary course of this
crisis, one can enumerate such instances as Arabism, Houthism, Wahhabism, and
independence seeking. Ethnic and religious tendencies, economic impoverishment
of the Yemeni people, fundamental difference between approaches taken to
Yemen’s developments by Iran and Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, as
well as geopolitical and geostrategic importance of Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for
the United States, Europe and China, are among other variables that have paved
the way for interaction among international institutions, the United Nations,
the European Union and such actors as the United States and Russia in Yemen’s
developments. From another standpoint, the strategic crisis in Yemen is the
extension of other global crises, both at regional and international levels,
and in the Middle East such as the ongoing crises in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan,
Syria, Bahrain and Ukraine. Some countries located around the Arabian
Peninsula, including Yemen and Oman, have been trying to follow more
independent policies compared to the littoral states of the Persian Gulf, which
are under theoretical and military influence of Saudi Arabia. Iran is one of
the actors that both affects and is affected by the above crises and whose
actions and viewpoints with respect to the aforesaid crises have been mostly
uniform and following the same theoretical and strategic framework.
When analyzing
future outlook of this crisis, such scenarios as further growth of sectarianism
as well as de facto and de jure disintegration of Yemen can be imaginable.
Continuation of efforts made to remove Iran from the political process in
Yemen’s crisis, Saudi Arabia’s win in Yemen’s crisis, continuation of the
existing trend with the crisis turning into a war of attrition, in addition to
effectiveness of mediatory measures are other scenarios that can be considered
with regard to this crisis. Continuation of tensions in their current form in
short and medium terms and persistence of the status quo on the basis of any
one of the aforesaid scenarios can provide grounds for the return and practical
reinstatement of Yemen’s former president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, who is being
supported by Saudi Arabia. If, on the other hand, Houthi fighters gain power in
Yemen, it is possible that two states would be established in Yemen and the
current tensions would continue to exist. In a scarier scenario, continuation
of the current situation in Yemen can lead to a prolonged all-out civil war in
this country like what is currently going on in Syria.
Policy options
can be also considered when analyzing future outlook of 2015 strategic crisis
in Yemen. Increasing regional contacts and formation of more serious contact
groups as well as efforts made to resolve this crisis through international
institutions and organizations are other options that are imaginable in this
regard. Existence of an effective political determination and reconciliatory
intentions as well as an end to intervention in this crisis by all political
players with the goal of removing domestic and legitimate actor, as well as
making efforts to resolve this crisis through political means and putting an
end to other important international crises can be effective in facilitating
rapid resolution of Yemen’s crisis. In a final analysis and taking into account
all factors that affect the future fate of Yemen, it seems that the final
solution to 2015 Yemen crisis would include give-and-take within the country as
well as possible deals at regional levels, in addition to mediation and
cooperative efforts by international actors at the level of international
organizations as well as regional and international institutions, which will go
way beyond 2015.
About The Author:
Behzad
Khoshandam, Ph.D. in International Relations & Expert on International
Issues
More By Behzad
Khoshandam:
