This report, aimed at decision-makers from both countries, contributes to the strengthening of bilateral security cooperation in priority areas, namely NATO's adaption to the deteriorating security outlook in the East (Section 1), the workings of the Visegrad Group (Section 2), and EU-Russia relations and EU's foreign and security policies more broadly (Section 3).
The profound shifts underway in regional and European security have lent
a new sense of urgency and importance to Polish-Czech security partnership.
Effective bilateral cooperation is central to advancing Polish and Czech
Republic's national interests within the European Union and NATO. Moreover,
Polish-Czech convergence on critical security dossiers is a prerequisite for
the sustainability of regional political structures, in particular the Visegrad
Group. Going forward, the quality and depth of Polish-Czech partnership will
decisively affect the region's – and, indeed, EU's and NATO's – responses to
the mounting security challenges in the Eastern neighbourhood and beyond.
Despite the structural asymmetry inherent in Polish-Czech security
relations – owing to differences in size of the armed forces, structure of
defence industries, strategic culture, or degree on political consensus on
threat perception – Warsaw and Prague are among each other's closest strategic
allies. Bilateral defence cooperation with Czech Republic, as a Visegrad
partner, is enshrined as a specific objective in Poland's Strategy of the
Development of National Security System 2022, and, conversely, in Czech
Republic's Defence Strategy of 2012. A high-level consultation format,
inaugurated by Prime Ministers in 2011, ensures continuing dialogue on
strategic issues. Bilateral relations are underpinned by robust economic and
trade ties: in 2014, they made for each other's third largest export markets.
Nonetheless, both sides are aware of the untapped potential of their security
partnership, in operational as well as strategic terms.
This report, aimed at decision-makers from both countries, contributes to
the strengthening of bilateral security cooperation in priority areas, namely
NATO's adaption to the deteriorating security outlook in the East (Section 1),
the workings of the Visegrad Group (Section 2), and EU-Russia relations and
EU's foreign and security policies more broadly (Section 3). It helps define
points of convergence as well as areas that require further dialogue to bridge
existing disagreements, and, on that basis, offers a set of policy
recommendations to governments and expert communities in Warsaw and Prague
(Section 4).
Strengthening of NATO’s Eastern Flank:
Areas of convergence and cooperation
Both the Polish
and Czech authorities are broadly aligned in their assessment of the
deteriorating regional security environment as a result of Russia's aggression
in Ukraine, which heightened the risk of conventional armed conflicts in
Europe, as stressed in Poland's (2014) and the Czech Republic's (2015) updated
National Security Strategies. They agree on the necessity of strengthening of
NATO’s eastern flank on the basis of the implementation of the articles of the
Readiness Action Plan, endorsed in 2014 at the Alliance’s Summit in Newport.
Warsaw and Prague are also in agreement in the matter of the key actions needed
to realise the commitments made at the Summit. Poland is treating the Very High
Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) as a matter of priority. This attitude is
echoed in the Czech Republic, which pledged 150 soldiers and transport
helicopters to meet the needs of the VJTF. Moreover, Poland and the Czech
Republic have intensified training cooperation during NATO exercises. The
latter upped its spending on participation in NATO exercise by 60% in the last
year.
In order to make
good on the declarations of the Newport Summit, programmes for the
modernisation of the armed forces are being realised in both countries. Polish
defence spending is currently being maintained at a level of 1.95% GDP, but
from 2016 will rise to at least 2% GDP. As far as the Czech Republic is
concerned, the government in Prague decided for the first time not to reduce
the budget of its defence ministry. Targeted expenditure on arms should rise
year by year in order to reach by 2020 a level of 1.4% GDP.
Differences
The Polish and
Czech positions align on many key issues save for one – permanent presence of
NATO forces in the Central European region. The notion of creating permanent
bases of the Alliance in Poland and the Baltic States, in the framework of the
Newport Plus plan, is a long-standing demand of the Polish government, and was
recently underlined by the current Polish President, Andrzej Duda. By contrast,
the government of Bohuslav Sobotka in Prague is sceptical of the move,
conscious of the geopolitical and legal sensitivities arising from permanent
stationing of NATO troops, as well as of the absence of a robust consensus on
the issue inside the Alliance itself.
Another point of
divergence lies in the disproportion of defence expenditures. Whereas Warsaw
has embarked on the largest ever programme of military modernization, the Czech
government's investment and spending ambitions are considerably more modest,
and, to a large extent, declaratory. From 2005, the Czech side has successively
reduced amounts spent on defence and over the last six years, the Czech national
defence budget has fallen and making it more difficult for Czech arm forces to
achieve necessary operational capabilities within NATO. Altogether by 23%,
engendering a strategic asymmetry that is hindering tighter security and
defence cooperation between the two partners.
Visegrad Security Cooperation
Areas of convergence and cooperation
In the Visegrad
framework, Polish-Czech cooperation is dominated by the EU Battlegroup project,
the most ambitious cooperative defence initiative in the history of the V4.
This unit should be combat ready in the first half of 2016 and its formation is
unprecedented, given that V4 security cooperation has been hitherto confided to
political or small-scale inter-ministerial activities. The new structure will
comprise 2500 troops including a main combat battalion of 950 soldiers; its
operational command fell to Poland. The second-highest contingent by number
will be Czechs, who have pledged a 19% contribution in the Battlegroup. Moreover,
both governments are broadly agreed on the wisdom of transforming the unit – or
at least its elements – into a more permanent structure, subject to further
discussions about status and operational modalities.
Differences
The Battlegroup
project notwithstanding, effective security cooperation in the V4 framework
still leaves much to be desired. Informed by differing threat perceptions,
member countries often exhibit difficulty in formulating joint positions on
core issues affecting European security. Likewise, Polish-Czech cooperation –
whether bilaterally or in the V4 framework – has yet to deliver on the promise
and potential of greater coordination in defence planning, capability
development, training of troops or research and development – to say nothing of
shared procurement.
Another area of lingering disagreement pertains Visegrad Group's cooperation
with third countries. The Slavkov Declaration of 29 January 2015, signed by the
Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria – an initiative originally proposed by
the Czech government as a way of complementing the Visegrad format and
bolstering ties with Austria – has caused some uncertainty in Warsaw over its
potential impact on the coherence and integrity of the Visegrad Group. Further
dialogue is needed to arrive at a common Polish-Czech understanding, in a way
that ensures compatibility between the various formats, and clears the path for
deeper institutionalized V4 cooperation with external partners, above all
Ukraine and also with the three Baltic states and Romania, on the basis of the
Polish-supported V4+ model. Similarly, all partners should make an effort to
forge a common Visegrad position in the drafting of the EU’s Global Strategy on
Security and Foreign Policy, as proposed by the Czech V4 presidency, as well as
on the revision of the Neighbourhood Policy.
EU-Russia Relations and EU’s Security
and Security and External Policies:
Areas of convergence and cooperation
The Polish and Czech governments share the
view that a forward-looking and cohesive EU security policy – one that makes
full use of the institutional and legal innovations of the Lisbon Treaty –
constitutes the most effective vehicle for managing the security crises that
have sprung up along Europe's frontier. In particular, both governments
appreciate the imperative of a common EU strategy towards Russia and the
Eastern neighbourhood: a combination of economic sanctions tied to full
implementation of Minsk II accords, and vigorous support for the sovereignty,
territorial integrity, European integration and reform processes in Ukraine and
other Eastern partners. Furthermore, Warsaw and Prague share the view that any
credible Russia strategy must be backed by efforts to alleviate Europe's energy
insecurity and over-dependence on Russia's supply (as evidenced by an array of
planned bilateral energy and infrastructure projects, including a new gas
interconnector and modernized transport routes from the Czech Republic to
Szczecin and Świnoujście), bolster the European defence pillar, including
through enhanced EU-NATO cooperation, and develop a set of tools to counter
Russia's propaganda and other forms of hybrid warfare.
Both countries
are supportive of the efforts, as instructed by the European Council and
spearheaded by HR/VP Federica Mogherini, to produce a new European Global
Strategy, endowing the EU and its Member States with a revamped conceptual,
institutional and policy frameworks to address rising instability along the EU
borders, East and South, and navigate an increasingly fragmented and
competitive multi-polar order. In a joint statement by Prime Ministers of June
2015, the two countries, along with Slovakia and Hungary, pledged to coordinate
their input into the drafting process, highlighting the need to upgrade the
institutions and military capabilities of EU's Common Security and Defence
Policy.
Poland and the
Czech Republic also call for greater interlinking of external and internal
facets of EU security policy, a theme that gained further prominence amidst the
refugee crisis. In this respect, policy-makers in both countries agree on the
need for more effective – and, to some extent, Europeanized – policing of the
external Schengen border. Both governments, also Hungarian and Slovak, treat
the immigrants also as possible security risk and therefore have opposed
mandatory quotas as proposed by the EU Commission. Although a source of
commonality, this position is likely to be counterproductive with regard to
relations with key EU partners and institutions, as well as for both countries
reputations with regard to protecting human rights and upholding legal and
moral responsibilities as well as European values.
Differences
As regards the
EU's handling of the Ukraine conflict and the future of its relations with
Russia, the two governments differ in rhetoric and emphasis: whereas Polish
leaders accentuate coercive elements of EU policy mix, their Czech counterparts
focus on dialogue and peaceful resolution of the Donbas conflict. The
dissonance stems not only from different geopolitical attitudes towards
Russia's revisionist policies and different threat perceptions, but also from
domestic political dynamics and varying degrees of internal unity on foreign
policy. In Poland, an uncompromising stance vis-a-vis the Kremlin is a matter
of consensus across the political spectrum, and, crucially, between the two
main parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice. In the Czech Republic, by
contrast, elite attitudes towards Russia and EURussia relations are more
diverse, characterized by a pluralistic and competitive discourse. Foreign and
defence ministries perceive Russia's threat similarly to Polish policy-makers,
but other Czech state institutions and elite groups – notably the Presidency,
the ministry of trade and industry and parts of the ruling social-democrats –
espouse a more accommodating line, arguing that economic sanctions are harmful
to Czech and EU economy. To some extent, the divergence can be attributed to
the fact that Russian investment in the Czech Republic is twice as large as
that in Poland and the value of Czech export to Russia rose from 2009 by 130%;
while Poland’s all consecutive governments since 1989 have been opposing
Russian investment in the strategic industries, such as energy, it did not
prevent the value of export to Russia to rise from 2009 by more than 110%.
Policy Recommendations:
Poland and the
Czech Republic should strive to maintain a common position within the Visegrad
Group and the European Union on EU and NATO approach towards Russia, including
a sanctions regime conditional upon full implementation of the Minsk
Agreements.
Both governments
should work towards a common list of priorities and present a joint input into
the process of drafting a new European Global Strategy, as well as closely
align their positions on the Review of the European Neighbourhood Policy, with
an emphasis on developing a vision for a more robust Eastern Partnership.
Both governments
should work towards developing a V4 position on co-operation with additional,
non-V4, partners, to ensure that such co-operation does not undermine
co-operation within the V4 format. Areas of co-operation where the V4 format is
preferable should be clearly identified.
Poland and the
Czech Republic should intensify cooperation on strategic actions aimed at
strengthening the eastern flank of NATO, on the basis of commitments made at
the 2014 Newport Summit.
- In particular, the Czech side should continue its active involvement in Allied military exercises (in conjunction with larger funds earmarked by Prague), meet commitments on defence spending (projected to reach 2% of GDP from 2016 onwards in the case of Poland, compared with 1.4% of GDP by 2020 in the case of the Czech Republic), and fashion a long-term strategic vision for its Armed Forces and their role in the collective defence within the structure of NATO and of the European Union.
- Poland should, wherever appropriate, offer its support to the Czech armed forces modernisation programme.
- The governments of Poland and the Czech Republic should work together to forge a regional consensus among the Eastern Flank NATO Member States on upgrading Allied military footprint, in a way that provides for effective deterrence against Russia but does not undermine unity and mutual trust within the Alliance ahead of the Warsaw Summit in 2016.
- In the face of increasing activity of Russian intelligence activity in Central Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic should also strengthen cooperation between their intelligence and counterintelligence services bilaterally and at a new NATO Counter Intelligence Centre of Excellence (NATO CI COE) to be located in Kraków, Poland.
Warsaw and
Prague should focus on exchanging best practices in areas such as: civil
defence and civil-military cooperation (police and other uniformed services,
paramilitaries, etc.), crisis management, protection of critical infrastructure
(including cyber security, transportation routesand communication systems), as
well as resilience to other forms of hybrid threats. The experience of
Polish-Czech partnership in these areas could form the basis of joint projects
undertaken at amultilateral level (mainly NATO and the EU).
The two
governments should consider a joint initiative to place NATO's Centre of
Excellence in the field of civil defence in either Poland or the Czech Republic
(following the Centre of Excellence of the Military Police in Poland’s
Bydgoszcz and the Centre of Excellence in the Joint Chemical, Biological,
Radiological and Nuclear Defence in the Czech Republic’s Vyskov as well as a
new NATO Counter Intelligence Centre of Excellence (NATO CI COE) located in
Kraków, Poland). Such a Centre would tie in with the Smart Defence
initiative (by NATO) and the Pooling and Sharing programme (EU), and complement
the tasks of the Centre of Excellence of Civil Military Cooperation in Enschede
(the Netherlands), focusing mainly on expeditionary missions.
During their
successive presidencies of the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic's in July
2015 – June 2016 and Poland's in July 2016 – June 2017), they should strive to
raise the profile of the grouping as a security forum and actor, not least
by effective implementation of the EU Battlegroup project, and using it as a
stepping stone towards the establishment of a permanent modular unit. The
Polish and Czech presidencies should also be used to strengthen defence
partnerships and harmonize defence planning cycles within the V4, based on the
example of the Nordic countries' cooperation.
- In the context of their V4 presidencies, Prague and Warsaw should prioritize refining and institutionalizing the V4+ format as a model of cooperation with other countries at various levels (one recent positive example includes the meeting of chiefs of armed forces general staffs from the Visegrad Group and Ukraine in June 2015).
The issue of
refugees and of high demand for inward migration more widely is likely to
increase in the coming years. The Czech Republic and Poland should explore the
possibility of formulating a common position on EU policy in this regard that
takes account of humanitarian concerns, economic, moral and legal
responsibilities and economic and social be-nefits as well as costs of inward
migration and mobility. As well as considering security concerns, both
countries should examine the issue through the lenses of solidarity with other
EU member states – particularly those that are key points of arrival and key
destinations – and with a clear appreciation of the need to share the burdens
as well as the benefits of Schengen and EU membership.
It is desirable
to introduce a mechanism of regular meetings of committees on European affairs
and committees on defence and security of Czech and Polish parliaments so as to
discuss problems experienced by governments and experts of the two countries.
Poland and the
Czech Republic should intensify efforts to promote a regional energy market
(also including Slovakia and Hungary) and complete work on a North – South
gas corridor.
As a way of
contributing to common security (especially in the economic field, including
power generation), governments should work to improve transport links (road and
rail lines) as well as energy transmission corridors.
Poland and the
Czech Republic should deepen their mutual economic cooperation. Priority areas
in this regard which should be considered: increasing the level of mutual
investments (including the creation of favourable conditions for investors by
the public administration and public-private partnerships), emphasis on
cooperation in science and research to develop innovative sectors of the
economy, and to strengthen partnership for joint activities in third markets.
____________________________
Publication
Details:
This report is
available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Poland license. Full
rights reserved for the Centre for International Relations. The report was
developed under “The Polish-Czech forum for the sake of closer acquaintance of
societies, enhanced cooperation and good-neighbourly relations 2015” conducted
through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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