The Middle-East map is being redrawn in Syria and Iraq by Moscow and Washington.
By Keith K C Hui
The Mideast
map-redrawing ‘Act One’ has begun. Ba’athist/Alawite Syria, Sunni Syria,
Kurdistan, Sunni Iraq and Shi’a Iraq are the first batch of new ‘states’ to be
formed as the Obama Administration has finally accepted Russia’s role in
preserving a Ba’athist Syrian state for the Alawis — the religious sect who
makes up about 12% of Syria’s population and remains “loyal to the (Assad)
regime even as the economy deteriorates” [Note 1].
Without some
sort of compromise beforehand, it is common diplomatic sense that the
Obama-Putin private meeting on September 29 could not have crystallized. The
picture turned clear when Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov, “standing shoulder to shoulder somewhere in the United
Nations building” on September 30, announced their common vision of resolving
Syria’s war through “political process”, thus sealing “an American stamp of
legitimacy on Russia’s Syria intervention” [Note 2].
Ba’athist/Alawite
Syria
After having
hammered out the Iran deal in July, Washington has already been on a set-go
position to redraw the Mideast map [Note 3].
What has probably speeded up the move is the rather sudden large influx
of Muslim refugees flooding Europe’s heartland since early September. Despite
Germany’s bravo opening of gates, it is beyond everyone’s imagination how the
United States’ European allies could absorb, let alone assimilate, one to two
million non-Christian immigrants. Consequently, such a gigantic pressure on the
White House to “ease the humanitarian burden” [Note 4] on the allies’ shoulders
is so unbearable to the extent that President Obama must drop the ideal of
having “Bashar al-Assad and his supporters … forced from power” [Note 5] and
then, as reported on Sept 23, “decided to meet with … Putin in New York, if it
can be arranged, for their first face-to-face encounter in nearly a year” [Note
6], even though he still insisted Assad must go in his United Nations
speech.
The Russian air
strikes in Syria mean that Moscow is attempting to grab as much land as
possible on Assad’s behalf during the transitional period which was probably
agreed at the Kerry-Lavrov meeting in order to cultivate a fait accompli for
the Alawite Syria with Damascus as its capital city. While it is uncertain
whether Assad may step down or not, it seems the ruling Arab Socialist Ba’ath
Party would stay in power.
Sunni Syria
The rationale
behind President Obama’s reluctant but sensible acceptance of Russia’s direct
intervention is very simple, namely, the Alawite-Sunni dichotomy. The in-power
Alawis are a religious sectarian minority, whereas the Sunni Muslims comprise
over 70% of the population. Since “the
dominant Sunni tradition has always considered Alawites as infidels”, the
(Ba’athist) regime, because of its secular character and the fact that it is
dominated by members of the Alawite minority, never enjoyed any kind of
religious legitimacy among Sunnis” [Note 7]. Given neither side can knock out
each other after almost five decades, a quick fix before the Sunni Muslim
refugee problem will get worse in Europe is to let both sides settle down in
newly bordered territories in certain form of secession jointly masterminded by
Obama and Putin.
On October 9,
when the Washington officials revealed their plan “to assemble a group of Sunni
tribes in a ‘Syrian Arab Coalition’ to fight alongside Syrian Kurdish forces
against the Islamic State” [Note 8], there was no mention of fighting the Assad
government. It is apparently a more mature plan to, after the compromise with
Moscow, tailor-make a cradle for upbringing a Sunni political party with a view
of governing a new Syrian state, hopefully with Aleppo as its capital city.
A peaceful
co-existence between the two new regimes in Syria would gradually stabilize
this war-torn country, thus not only alleviating the pain of the indigenous
Sunni Syrians but also inducing those refugees being adrift in Europe to return
home.
Kurdistan
The Kurds,
despite bloodshed everywhere, benefit from the chaos in this region partly
because they are no longer governed by Damascus as well as Baghdad, and partly
because the “U.S. doesn’t trust anyone except the Kurds” [Note 9]. Although the
6.9 million Kurds living in Syria and Iraq have been disunited by different
dialects (northern dialect in Syria vs Zaza and south-eastern dialects in Iraq)
and political party affiliations (PUK, KDP and PKK), it has always been their
common goal to have the “state of Kurdistan” (proposed by Treaty of Sèvres
1920) realized in the 21st century.
The major
selling points to the White House for fostering a Kurdistan state (which will
definitely become a faithful agent) are not simply to balance out the influence
of Damascus and Baghdad but to place the increasingly disobedient Ankara and
Riyadh in check and simultaneously insert an ethnical de-stabilizer inside Iran
(4.7 million Kurds in Iran and 15 million in Turkey). With Washington’s trust
and the continuous U.S. reinforcement, it would be just a matter of timing for
the Kurds to turn their already de facto independence into a real sovereign
state.
Sunni Iraq and
Shi’a Iraq
The dangerous
liaison between the post-Saddam Shi’a Iraqi administration and Tehran is
certainly not in the interest of the United States. Strategically speaking,
occupation of Mosul by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militias
and thereafter, loss of nation-wide control by Baghdad may not be unwelcome by
Washington.
As millions of
Sunni Iraqis who are now living along Tigris River from Mosul to Takrit and
Euphrates River from Anah to Fallujah are already beyond the reach of the Shi’a
authority, a better choice to alienate them from the ISIL is self-government.
Such a new Sunni Iraq could further trim the Shi’a government’s political and
economic spheres of influence over the already delimbed Iraq after the Kurds’
departure.
A pragmatic
reason for the necessary dissolution of Iraq is that the Western mode of
democratic system may not function normally in a deeply ethnically- and/or
religiously-divided country as voting for the same ethnic or religious group is
usually highly binding on each citizen.
The ‘tyranny of majority’ without protection for the minorities is very
often the result of a series of elections, however open and fair they may be,
over time. The inevitable outcome is non-stop sectarian confrontations and
violence, thus feeding the extremists’ growth.
Negotiated secession
as a political solution
The Obama
Administration is co-leading with the Kremlin to help slice the Syria-Iraq area
into five or more political states so as to “deconflict” [Note 10] this region
and hopefully reduce the attractiveness of ISIL. China, who is eager to see
restfulness in this region to facilitate its Silk Road projects, might have
made some contribution to the U.S.-Russia deal, bearing in mind that President
Obama happened to have several chats with Xi Jinping in Washington three days before
his private meeting with Putin in New York on Sep 28. The Chinese foreign minister’s call for
political solution to the Syrian crisis on Sep 30 therefore may not be just
coincidence [Note 11]. Having garnered
the endorsement of Russia and China, such a state formation project is unlikely
to be vetoed at the United Nations Security Council meetings.
Down to earth,
ascertaining how the Wahhabist Saudi Arabia and Shi’a Iran may participate in
this Sunni-Shi’ite tug-of-war is not easy [Note 12] but what is sure is that,
so long as the Arabian tribal traditions remain here, the national borders
arbitrarily set by the Western powers during the colonial era to contain
antagonistic clans inside a tent can do nothing but ignite fire. For
long-lasting peace, with reference to the disintegration of Yugoslavia, why not
apply the Platonic principle of “mind your own business” to let the various
ethnic/religious groups find a habitat of their own to live their local
socio-economic, cultural and political lives?
About The Author:
Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate, a Fellow of The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (UK), and the author of Helmsman Ruler: China’s Pragmatic Version of Plato’s Ideal Political Succession System in The Republic, Singapore: Trafford, 2013.
About The Author:
Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate, a Fellow of The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (UK), and the author of Helmsman Ruler: China’s Pragmatic Version of Plato’s Ideal Political Succession System in The Republic, Singapore: Trafford, 2013.
End-notes:
[Note 1]
See p.7 in CRS
Report, “Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response”, Oct 9, 2015.
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf and p.22 in CRS
Report, “Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response”, Aug 20,
2012. http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf
[Note 2]
See paragraphs 2
and 5 in:
Vox, “John Kerry
just made a significant and consequential gaffe on Russia and Syria”, Sep 30,
2015. http://www.vox.com/2015/9/30/9429039/syria-russia-kerry-lavrov
[Note 3]
FPIF, “Iran
Nuclear Deal Redraws the Middle-East Map”, July 21, 2015.
http://fpif.org/iran-nuclear-deal-redraws-middle-east-map/
[Note 4]
This phrase
“ease the humanitarian burden” can be seen in paragraph 8 in CNN, “John Kerry
raises Syria no-fly zone despite Obama’s skepticism”, Oct 7, 2015.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/06/politics/john-kerry-no-fly-zone-syria-obama
[Note 5]
See p.1 in CRS
Report, “Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response”, Aug 20,
2012.
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf
[Note 6]
See paragraph 1
in New York Times, “Amid Fresh Tension over Syria, Obama and Putin seek to
meet”, Sep 23, 2015.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/24/world/middleeast/amid-fresh-tension-over-syria-obama-and-putin-seek-to-meet.html?_r=0
[Note 7]
See p.7 in
Thomas Pierret (2013), “Religion and State in Syria: the Sunni Ulama from Coup
to Revolution”, Cambridge University Press; and its footnote 4 quoting Yvette
Talhamy, “The Fatwas and the Nusayri/Alawis of Syria”, Middle Eastern Studies
46, no.2 (2010), 175-94.
[Note 8]
See paragraph 22
in New York Times, “Obama Administration Ends Effort to Train Syrians to Combat
ISIS”, Oct 9, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/world/middleeast/pentagon-program-islamic-state-syria.html
[Note 9]
See paragraph 26
in New York Times, “Obama Administration Ends Effort to Train Syrians to Combat
ISIS”, Oct 9, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/world/middleeast/pentagon-program-islamic-state-syria.html.[Note 10].This word can be
found in paragraph 5 in:
Vox, “John Kerry
just made a significant and consequential gaffe on Russia and Syria”, Sep 30,
2015., http://www.vox.com/2015/9/30/9429039/syria-russia-kerry-lavrov
[Note 11]
Reuters, “China
again calls for political solution to Syria”, Sep 30, 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-mideast-crisis-china-idUSKCN0RU0FN20150930
[Note 12]
Business
Insider, “Saudi Arabia just replenished Syrian rebels with one of the most
effective weapons against the Assad regime”, Oct 9, 2015.
http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-rebels-and-tow-missiles-2015-10
Reuters, “Putin
reaches out to Saudis”, Oct 11, 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/11/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0S506F20151011
