By Georges Depeyrot The accession of India and Pakistan to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation may represent a major change in t...
By Georges Depeyrot
The accession of India and
Pakistan to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation may represent a major change
in the global equilibrium of the former (mainly) bi-polar organization of the
world led by the United States and the United Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR).
To understand the importance of this possible evolution, it is useful to place
it in a long term history rather than a short-term political or economic point
of view.
Rise and Shine of Bi-polarization
(1918-1970’s)
The European world disappeared in
the bloody World Wars of 1914-18 when about 10 million soldiers (adult men of
working age) and about 9 million civilians were killed, and about 21 million
soldiers were wounded. A complete generation disappeared. The cost of the war
was so enormous that the traditional financial centres of the world such as
London, Paris, Berlin, and the central banks also disappeared. The states were
so indebted that what followed was a major financial crisis which destroyed all
the currencies backed by the gold standard. The allied victory saw the USA become the central player in the
leadership of the world. The USA was
comparatively less affected by the destruction of war, suffered fewer human
losses than other nations, especially Europe.
The USA significantly benefited from the European indebtedness.
The Soviet Revolution in 1917
hindered relations between the USSR and other states and during the 20th
century the USSR sought a path of development, without any kind of relation
with the “capitalist world” except war. This bipolarization was increased by
the onset of WWII (1939 – 1945) which, in fact created a temporary alliance
between the USA and the USSR, both fighting against the Nazis: agreements were
settled during summits (Tehran conference, Dec 1943; Yalta conference, Feb.
1945; and Potsdam, July 1945 all with Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill) The
German defeat and the Iron Curtain worked to isolate the main Central European
countries from political and economic spheres globally.
The division of the world into
two blocs: one led by the United States and the other led by the USSR froze the
ability of nations to cooperate because they were mainly in one or another
camp. The major change after 1945 was the decolonization which created a number
of independent states who sought to find their place in the broader
international system. This phenomenon which could have been an opportunity to give
birth to another group of states failed, as one by one, the former colonies
joined either the USA or the Russian camp and relied on that bloc for most of
their security and economic needs. Some of them became involved in civil wars
between partisans of each of the two blocs.
The 20th century was mainly
characterized by a bi-polar world.
Crisis and Fall of One of the
Partners (1970’s-1990’s)
Up until the 70’s the two blocs
were able to compete in terms of population, demography, armies, etc. the influence
of USSR and Marxism was important amongst the intellectuals. USSR was a kind of
counter-model attracting scholars, artists, etc., who contributed to the
idealization of the eastern regime. This was also reinforced by pacifism and
the opposition to the war in Vietnam (1955-75) as well as the anti-colonialist
movements.
The 70’s were the turning point
of the situation. It began by a major crisis brought about by the decision on
August 15, 1971 to end the Bretton Woods Accord: the USA abandoned the Gold exchange
standard for a floating system. Soon after, the countries producing petrol,
decided to increase the price of the petrol, and to limit the quantities
produced (1971, October 1973). The 70’s saw an increase in tensions and rivalry
between the two blocs which were affected by the economic crisis brought about
through the collapse of the Bretton Woods Accord. In the capitalist countries,
unemployment increased sharply and the real income of the population decreased.
In the socialist countries unemployment did not exist officially, but the real
income of the families also decreased, and the intervention capacities of the
state also decreased (the State was in control of the whole economy).
Little by little the “soviet
heaven” lost its attractiveness in western countries. Many intellectuals
already condemned the intervention of the USSR tanks on August 21, 1968 in
Czechoslovakia. Soon after the publication of a controversial book by
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn entitled
The Gulag Archipelago in 1973, which explored the reality of the
deportation of millions of persons forced to work in concentration camps or the
displacement of nations (i.e. Chechens, Armenians, Georgians, who were then
sent to Siberia or Kazakh and Uzbek Republics)
the eyes of the last journalists, and academics supporting the Soviet
model were opened, and they began to doubt the overall effectiveness of the
Soviet system. It marked the end of the influence of the USSR abroad.
The invasion and the war in
Afghanistan in 1979 was the real beginning of the end for the USSR. Russia was
not able to support the cost of the war; its opponents were supported by the
USA (increasing aid from $40 million in 1983 and up to $630 million in 1987),
which they provided to help struggling and under-developed economies such as
Saudi Arabia. The economic and security situation in Russia and in all the
Eastern European countries that were formerly under the control of USSR
deteriorated throughout the war (1979-1989).
For example, in Poland, the
Polish trade union Solidarity (Solidarność) created in 1980 organized its first
strike against increases to food prices. Trapped in an economic crisis; a war
in Afghanistan; and constrained within an ineffective bureaucratic system which
was made worse by the inability to hold national elections, the USSR was
condemned to a long period of political instability.
On June 8, 1982, United States
President Ronald Reagan said, “the forward march of freedom and democracy will
leave Marxism–Leninism on the ash heap of history”. His support for the Afghan
opponents to the USSR, the development of the economic crisis and the Strategic
Defense Initiative (SDI) first proposed in 1983 accelerated the end of the
soviet regime. In November 1989, the Iron Curtain was destroyed in Berlin, the
reunification of Germany cut into two parts since 1945 was the most significant
event in this period of history. In 1990-1991 USSR collapsed completely giving
birth to 15 new republics. All the Eastern European Countries became
independent and free elections were organized. The transition to democratic Parliamentary systems was
largely supported by Western countries led by the United States. Some of them
joined the European Community and some of them are already a part of the
Euroland.
Highway to Hell (1990-2000)
Between 1990 and 1991, the USSR
collapsed but there was nothing in place to set up a new regime. The country
embarked upon a “highway to hell”. In August 1991 a putsch was organized
against President Gorbachev of the USSR; without the support of the general
population and of the army, it failed.
On December 8th 1991 ten Republics proclaimed the end of the USSR and on
December 25, the red flag fluttering at the top of the Kremlin came down. The
country that defeated Hitler, that sent the first man in the space and that was
the heaven of earth for millions of Communists around the world did not exist
anymore.
On the international stage, a new
organization was created in December 1991, the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) aimed to try and bring about a network with the former countries
of the former USSR. The economic crisis was very violent. At the end of the
Communist regime, only 2% of Russians were living under the poverty line ($2
per day), but by 1989 the total percentage of Russians living below the poverty
line had increased to 24%. Unemployment increased from 0.1 % to 8 %, the Gross
national product decreased by 8 % during the same period.
Russia from Europe to Asia?
The collapse of the USSR left the
USA as the main ruler in the world. The US strategy tried to limit the
influence of Russia as much as possible. The first Gulf war (1990-1991) created
the conditions necessary for a permanent American presence in the region. The
attack on September 11, 2001 was a direct consequence of the first Gulf war. It
gave the United States an opportunity to attack Afghanistan, then to attack
Iraq and to develop a number of military bases in the Middle East
and also around Russia.
What is the present situation?
Russia has few opportunities to develop their relations with the Middle
East. The pro-Russian countries are not
so numerous, two of the Russian allies in the Middle East include Armenia, the
small “republic” of Abkhazia (a part of Georgia), whereas the Anti-Russian
countries are far more numerous. The influence of the USA or Europe is
important in the Middle East and there are few possibilities for Russia to
increase its influence there. Europe will not leave Greece to develop close
relations with Russia, even if the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tried to
get the support of Putin against the ECB and IMF. The influence towards the
Balkan countries of Russia is hindered by the ongoing situation in Ukraine. The
traditional relations with Bulgaria (one of the few countries using the
Cyrillic alphabet and practicing the orthodox Christian faith) are blocked by
the fact it is impossible for Russians to cross Ukraine and to come in
Bulgaria. Serbia is actually more attracted by Europe than by Russia: The
former Serbian president, Slobodan Milosevic, benefited from diplomatic support
from Russia. Even after the massacres of Srebrenica (about 8,000 men) in July
1995, Russia tried to stop (March 19, 1999) the decision of the UN Security
Council of bombing Serbia. After the collapse of the Nationalist government and
the transfer of Milosevic to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former
Yugoslavia (2001), the new government applied to become a state member of the
European Union (2007). Balkan countries
are already using the euro: even Montenegro uses euros instead of a national
currency! Moldovia has poor relations with Russia because of questions over
Transnistria, a part of Moldovia whose petrol is annexed by Russia. The other
European countries are strongly against Russia, because of the historical
tensions which still exist over the soviet regimes that the USSR imposed upon
them. Let us list Poland that was occupied by Russia for many centuries; the
countries along the Baltic sea (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) were also under Russian occupation from 1945 and they joined
Europe and euroland after the collapse of USSR. And at the northern border,
Finland engaged in a war against Stalin and also joined Europe and euroland following
the collapse of the USSR.
The attitude of Russia, the
shooting of the Malaysian plane in 2014 and the war in Ukraine have combined to
push Europe into adopting sanctions against Russia.
A New Strategy?
Russia has been somewhat isolated
from Europe, they are losing Ukraine, which remains an important source of
petrol. Russia has lost considerable influence throughout Europe since the fall
of the USSR in 1991. The situation has only worsened during the last few
months. The war in Ukraine is expensive. The sanctions continue to harm the
Russian economy, inflation is increasing and there is no hope of economic
improvement any time soon. The speculation against the rubble caused a dramatic
decline in value on the global currency markets: the Russian currency fell from 60 rubble for
every US Dollar to more than 100 before rebounding to about 65-70. Falling
petrol prices also decreased the national income of Russia, further impeding
its competitiveness on global markets.
In December 1991 the creation of
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was largely a response to the
disaggregation of the USSR. This CIS was not very efficient, except in
maintaining the political links between the new republics. The economic crisis
that followed the creation of the CIS blocked all possibility of economic
development.
Soon after the end of the crisis
in Russia, on June 14, 2001, a group of countries from the CIS signed a treaty
creating the Shanghai cooperation organization (SCO). It was an important step
for a former group of five states created in 1996 that was mainly limited to
the questions of borders and the resolution of incidents between the countries.
Up to now, the Shanghai
cooperation organization has solved some problems arising from relations at the
border between Russia and China. During recent years several incidents occurred
along the 2,500-mile border arising from tensions between Russia and China. The
tensions were linked to the situations of some ethnic minorities that tried to
escape from China, such as the Uyghurs, a group of Turcs, Islamists, whose
relations with Beijing are conflictual. A large number of them (more than
50,000) took refuge in USSR. The most important was the 1969 incident along the
Ussuri River where China and Russia disagree on the possession of the small
Damanskii Island, when about 60 Russian soldiers were killed in conflicts over
the Island. All these tensions were solved by bilateral discussions. Now, it seems that the actions of the two
countries are aimed bringing back peace and stability.
The SCO also organized some naval
and military manoeuvres between the two countries which are an important
diplomatic step towards closer ties between the two countries. However Russia
has a larger ground army which includes a good group of tanks and China has a
larger naval army. Air forces seem to be similar for both countries. In any
case, the SCO may play a very important role in creating more harmonious
relations in Asia, especially as one way of decreasing the risks of war between
Asian nations and Western ones or to solve minor military incidents between
Asian nations.
Is it a military union? No, or at
least not entirely! It is important to understand the “with and without” of the
SCO. Aside from the Member States (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) there is a group of Observer States (i.e. Afghanistan,
Belarus, Iran, etc.) and a group of Dialogue Partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Nepal, etc.). On the contrary membership was refused to the USA and to Japan.
The clear aim of the SCO is to counter US dominance in Asia. It is also clearly
connected to the debates surrounding the Kuril Islands which the Japanese
claimed as their own territory in at the end of WWII and the Senkaku Islands
disputed between China and Japan, in which the United States has publicly
supported the Japanese claim to the Islands. As we can see the OCS is
effectively creating a group of states not linked to, but rather in opposition
with the USA. This opposition includes Japan, considered as an ally of the US,
with the American bases in Japan, especially in Okinawa (there is a plan to
enlarge and reorganise these bases), and the controversy concerning the visits
of members of the government to the Yasukuni Shrine where the names of the
soldiers are listed including some war-criminals.
What about the economy? This is
the weak point in relations between the USA and Russia. The relations between
Russia and China are still uneasy. Eastern Siberia remained underdeveloped
until the end of WWII. However sustained efforts from Russia to create new
centres in Far Eastern Russia are gaining momentum. In 2012 a summit of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation bloc (APEC) was organized in Vladivostok. It
was an opportunity for Putin to construct a huge special building (that is now
the new university) and to inaugurate a new airport. It was a demonstration of
wealth in front of the representatives of the 21 states participating in this
meeting which aimed to work towards a free trade agreement for Pacific nations.
However, up to now Russia can
mainly propose natural products such as gas as a key driver of international
trade. China can have a very important and large market to sell Chinese
manufactured products. The question of transportation may also be largely
resolved after the signing of a new treaty to install a high speed rail network
between Moscow and Beijing. It would be a very good opportunity for China which
has constructed some of the most renowned high speed train networks (such as the Canton – Beijing network).
An Acceleration?
In 2014 the Eurasian Economic
Union (EEU) was created as a means of bringing about an economic union between
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. It creates an integrated
single market with nearly 190 million people and the purpose is to create a new
unique currency underscored by a Eurasian Development Bank. This EEU would act
as a counterweight to the European Union in Eurasia.
In July 2015 India and Pakistan
were accepted as members of the Shanghai cooperation organization. The USA
tried to prevent this membership. With these new members SCO represents now
nearly one half of the world population (40 %). Its weight inside international
institutions will prove increasingly important: the group holds three seats out
of the five in the BRICS bloc, four in the G20, and two out of five seats in
the UN Security Council.
The enlarged SCO is clearly a new
pole in a multipolar world. Is it the end of the bipolar system? Yes and no. We
can consider that the actual world is ruled by the USA and Europe if we take
into account both the population and the GNP. Aside from these two key
indicators there are a lot of important countries, who still remain isolated.
In the event that Russia, India, Brazil and China united to form a huge bloc,
this could bring about the emergence of a new pole.
The Shanghai cooperation
organization joined well educated nations, with good universities. Up to now
the development was a consequence of the technological structure, such as the
possibilities for citizens to attend university, to have a safe environment
with good law enforcement and a relatively high standard of living and quality
of life. Also important is the ability to use enough energy to create the
conditions for economic development. The development of nuclear plants has made
energy production cheap and abundant. For China or India, nuclear plants make
them free from coal mines and their adverse environmental impacts. Education is
completely transformed by the internet, which has led to the creation of
Massive Online Open Courses or MOOCs which make education freely available to a
much larger audience for the first time. Expatriation is no longer the only way
to be educated and to receive a University degree. There is a kind of
complementarity between the members of the Shanghai cooperation organization.
Russia has a demographic problem linked to a decline in the number of births
which was closely linked to the economic situation in the 1990’s which was not
the case for other member nations.
Russia also has very large natural reserves (gas, petrol, wood) that are
sometimes missing in other nations and so create a good market for
international trade which could benefit Russia economically. With global
warming, Chinese or Russian territories could be used for cultivation for the
first time.
What Future?
The development of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization may be one of the major factors leading to the
wholescale transformation of international relations in the 21st century. First
it marks a complete shift in the external politics of Russia. It marks an end
to the ambitions of Peter the Great, the famous tsar (1682-1725) to transform
Russia into a European country. The SCO also changes the role of China in the
region, as it seeks to play a leading role in the world.
A new game has begun...
This paper has been first published at E-International Relations website on September 17, 2015
About The Author:
Georges Depeyrot is director of
research at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and at the École
Normale Supérieure (Paris). His specialization is in economic history.
