US-Israel Strikes on Iran Derail Diplomatic Progress, Ignite Retaliation and Reignite Regime-Change Debate

By Chetna Gill

Cover Image Attribute: An image circulating from Tehran on March 2, 2026, captures thick black smoke rising behind the large turquoise dome and twin minarets of the Grand Mosalla of Tehran, also known as the Imam Khomeini Mosalla, a partially completed mosque complex in the Abbas Abad district of the capital. / Source: X

 Explosions continued to reverberate across Iran, Israel and Gulf states early Monday as a U.S.-Israeli military campaign entered its fourth day, with Iranian retaliatory strikes hitting targets from Jerusalem suburbs to oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, while Hezbollah joined the fray with rocket fire into northern Israel. The operation, launched in the predawn hours of February 28, has already resulted in the confirmed death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials, according to Iranian state media and U.S. assessments, marking a dramatic escalation that both Washington and Jerusalem have framed as essential to neutralize existential threats but which analysts across multiple perspectives describe as a high-stakes gamble with regime transformation as the underlying aim.
U.S. President Donald Trump, in a video address issued shortly after the initial strikes, told Iranians that “when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” adding that the hour of their freedom was at hand and that no previous president had been willing to act as he was. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed the sentiment, stating that the coordinated operation would “remove the existential threat” posed by the Islamic Republic and “create the conditions” for Iranians to change their destiny. Pentagon briefings described the campaign as focused on destroying Iran’s ballistic missile production, naval assets and any remaining nuclear infrastructure, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisting it was “not Iraq” and “not endless,” while Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged that achieving full objectives would involve “gritty work” and potential additional U.S. losses. Israeli officials reported that more than 1,000 sites had been struck in the opening phase, including command centers in Tehran, Isfahan and Natanz, and that nine Iranian warships had been sunk.
The timing of the assault, however, has drawn sharp criticism from observers who note that it occurred precisely when indirect U.S.-Iranian negotiations, mediated by Oman, appeared on the verge of a significant breakthrough. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, had publicly described the recent Geneva round as showing “unprecedented openness,” with both sides demonstrating flexibility on limiting Iran’s nuclear program to civilian purposes, eliminating stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, down-blending existing material inside Iran and allowing full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency, possibly with U.S. inspectors. Albusaidi had rushed to Washington in a last-ditch effort to preserve momentum, appearing on U.S. television to outline the contours of a possible principles agreement within days. Iranian proposals had even included greater access for Western energy companies and economic cooperation frameworks calibrated to allow Trump to present any deal as superior to the 2015 agreement he abandoned in 2018. Yet within hours of these positive signals, the strikes began, leading one analyst writing in The Conversation to observe that “by attacking during that negotiation window, Washington and its allies have not only derailed a diplomatic opening but have cast doubt on the durability of American commitments to negotiated solutions.” Peace, the piece argued, “was not naïve. It was plausible.”
Iranian officials, speaking through state channels and surviving members of the leadership council that has assumed temporary control, condemned the operation as unprovoked aggression that shattered talks at their most promising moment. A senior security official stated that Iran was “defending itself against aggressors and would continue to do so,” while Ambassador Reza Najafi at the IAEA called the nuclear pretext “simply a big lie.” Retaliation was swift and widespread. Iranian missiles and drones struck near Jerusalem and Beit Shemesh, killing at least 11 civilians according to Israeli rescue services. Explosions were reported in Abu Dhabi, where one fatality was confirmed, as well as in Kuwait, Bahrain, Doha and areas adjacent to U.S. facilities. An oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman sustained damage, and drones targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, forcing partial shutdowns. By Sunday, Hezbollah had opened a northern front against Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs that Lebanese health authorities said killed at least 31 people. Iranian forces also struck positions in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting temporary halts in Qatari liquefied natural gas production and Saudi output adjustments that sent global oil prices spiking and European natural gas futures up sharply.
Commentators have highlighted what they describe as the true objectives behind the campaign. Writing in Daily Sabah on March 2, Nebi Miş argued that nuclear concerns served largely as a pretext, with the real goals encompassing neutralization of Iran’s ballistic missiles, proxy networks, command structures and ultimately a fundamental transformation of the regime or a forced behavioral change through leadership attrition. The piece noted that Trump had offered immunity to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members willing to lay down arms, while warning of consequences for those who resisted, and contended that diplomacy had been used to buy time for military preparations. Similarly, David Horovitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel, wrote on February 28 that the current operation represented a clear shift from the more limited June 2025 12-day war, explicitly aiming at regime change after years of failed negotiations and amid ongoing domestic protests in Iran that the regime had suppressed with lethal force. Horovitz observed that the ayatollahs’ refusal to abandon plans to destroy Israel or curb their support for groups like Hamas had left Washington and Jerusalem convinced that only decisive pressure could alter the trajectory.
Yet such rhetoric, according to Syed Akbaruddin, former Indian envoy to the United Nations, writing in The Telegraph India on March 2, carries corrosive risks. “Regime change is seductive but corrosive in practice,” he noted, arguing that public calls for Iranians to “take over” their government or cast off the “yoke of tyranny” collapse bargaining space and harden Tehran’s resolve. War, Akbaruddin wrote, “is a process. It is a sequence of decisions taken under pressure,” where each side’s need to demonstrate resolve can override initial intentions of limited scope. He pointed to the Strait of Hormuz not merely as geography but “as a pricing mechanism,” where even partial disruptions from Iranian asymmetric capabilities have already repriced energy markets, insurance and shipping routes, with ripple effects far beyond the region. For India, with deep stakes in Gulf energy imports, Indian diaspora safety and sea-lane security, the conflict demands pragmatic diplomacy rooted in “usable relationships” with all parties rather than theatrical neutrality, pressing quietly for de-escalation, civilian protection and open maritime passages.
Casualty figures remain fluid and contested. Iranian Red Crescent reports place deaths inside the country from the initial waves at over 500, including damage to civilian sites such as hospitals and a UNESCO-listed palace in Tehran. U.S. officials confirmed four American service members killed, with additional injuries from chaotic air-defense engagements that saw Kuwaiti forces mistakenly down three U.S. jets. Israeli authorities reported 11 civilian deaths from Iranian strikes, while Lebanese officials tallied 31 killed in Israeli counterstrikes. Gulf states, though not primary belligerents, absorbed hits that forced temporary production cuts and heightened alert levels across energy infrastructure.
The campaign builds on a pattern of escalating confrontation. A 12-day air war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran, backed by U.S. strikes on nuclear sites, had already degraded Iranian capabilities but allowed the regime to regroup, rebuild missile stocks and maintain proxy support. Domestic unrest in Iran throughout late 2025 and early 2026, marked by protests over economic hardship and a harsh security response, had created openings that some in Washington saw as fertile ground for external pressure. Intelligence assessments cited by U.S. officials warned of advancing Iranian nuclear and missile programs, though Tehran has consistently denied weaponization ambitions. Indirect talks in Oman and Geneva in February had appeared to offer a narrow path forward until the military option prevailed.
International reactions underscored deep divisions. The United Kingdom, France and Germany expressed support for curbing Iranian threats while urging restraint. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned violence on all sides as undermining peace and security. China and Russia labeled the strikes a violation of sovereignty and demanded an immediate ceasefire. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf monarchies intercepted incoming projectiles and condemned Iranian attacks on their soil. Oman, the recent mediator, voiced regret over the collapse of its efforts. In Israel, crossings into Gaza were sealed citing security concerns; in Lebanon, authorities moved to restrict Hezbollah operations.
Economic fallout has been immediate and global. Hundreds of thousands of airline passengers remain stranded after Gulf carriers curtailed flights, though limited services resumed Monday. Defense contractors saw share gains amid uncertainty, while broader equity markets fluctuated. Shipping firms rerouted vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of world oil passes, raising fears of sustained supply shocks. Analysts warned that prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures in import-dependent economies already navigating other geopolitical strains.
As the conflict enters its fourth day, U.S. and Israeli leaders maintain that military objectives of degrading Iran’s power-projection abilities are being met, even as Iranian statements vow sustained resistance and further retaliation. A temporary Iranian leadership council has assumed authority amid the decapitation of senior ranks, and Tehran has warned of a long war if necessary. Diplomats in multiple capitals continue urgent back-channel contacts, yet the pace of events on the ground, proxy activations and the logic of escalation appear to outrun those initiatives. Whether the campaign can be contained to its stated scope or will draw additional actors into open confrontation remains uncertain, with the coming hours likely to shape whether the region slides into a broader war or finds an off-ramp amid the mounting costs.

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