By Chetna Gill
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| Cover Image Attribute: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his son Nathan place their votes in a ballot box at a polling booth in his electorate in Sydney, Saturday, May 3, 2025. / Source: AP |
In a landmark moment for Australian politics, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has secured a second consecutive three-year term, the first such achievement in 21 years. The center-left Labor Party’s victory in Saturday’s election, with projections indicating 76 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, marks a significant mandate, bolstered by a voter backlash against the conservative Liberal-National coalition’s policies. Opposition leader Peter Dutton, conceding defeat, acknowledged, “We didn’t do well enough during this campaign, that much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that.” This resounding win, described by Dutton as “an historic occasion for the Labor Party,” positions Albanese’s government to address pressing economic challenges, including inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, and the looming risks of global trade disruptions. Yet, with great power comes great responsibility, and the question now is whether Albanese will leverage this mandate to enact bold reforms or opt for continuity in a time of uncertainty.
The election unfolded against a backdrop of economic strain, with both sides acknowledging a cost-of-living crisis that has left 3.4 million households grappling with food insecurity. Foodbank Australia’s report paints a stark picture: Australians are skipping meals or worrying about running out of food before they can afford more. The central bank’s recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.1% in February, with another cut to 3.85% expected on May 20, signals cautious optimism that the worst of the financial hardship may have passed. However, the international economic uncertainty driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies adds complexity to Australia’s outlook. Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the global economy as “going crazy,” a sentiment echoed by analysts who see Labor’s strengthened position as critical for navigating these turbulent waters.
Energy policy and inflation dominated the campaign. The Labor Party, branding Dutton “DOGE-y Dutton,” accused the coalition of mimicking Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency and warned that its nuclear-focused energy plan would slash services to fund costly ambitions. Dutton, in turn, argued that nuclear power would deliver cheaper electricity compared to Labor’s reliance on solar and wind, while blaming government waste for fueling inflation. “We’ve seen the attempt to run American-style politics here of division and pitting Australians against each other and I think that’s not the Australian way,” Albanese countered, emphasizing unity over polarization. Labor’s approach resonated with voters, particularly younger ones, who now outnumber Baby Boomers for the first time in an Australian election. Both parties courted first-home buyers with promises to ease entry into a prohibitively expensive property market, reflecting the demographic shift and its economic implications.
Financial markets responded positively to Labor’s victory, viewing it as a stabilizing force amid global trade risks. The Australian dollar hit a five-month high of $0.6481, and while the resources-heavy share market dipped 0.4% due to an earnings miss from Westpac, analysts attributed this to U.S. market volatility rather than domestic concerns. Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, noted that Labor’s win was anticipated by polls and unlikely to prompt drastic fiscal shifts. “I think it’s probably going to be more steady as she goes (on fiscal policy), rather than the aggressive change one way or the other,” he said. Goldman Sachs echoed this, leaving forecasts for fiscal spending and GDP growth unchanged, though TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha warned that “budget deficits are not moving in the right direction.” Despite this, Australia’s AAA credit rating remains intact, bolstered by Labor’s expanded majority and its leeway to counter economic threats.
Albanese’s victory offers a rare opportunity to tackle long-standing economic challenges. For decades, successive governments have avoided politically fraught reforms, such as removing tax incentives for investment properties or cutting red tape to boost housing supply. Jonathan Kearns, a former Reserve Bank of Australia official, argued that Labor’s strong mandate provides confidence to implement “reform policies that may be less popular initially but will produce longer-term benefits.” Past reviews of the tax system and productivity, he noted, are “lying on the shelf,” ready to be revisited. Australia’s reliance on personal income tax, heavier than in other developed nations, has long been criticized. Suggestions from groups like the OECD to increase indirect taxes, such as the goods and services tax, while cutting income taxes could incentivize growth but face political resistance. The last major tax reform, a 10% goods and services tax in 2000, was a generational achievement, while a 2012 mining tax was repealed after fierce opposition, illustrating the difficulty of such endeavors.
Productivity, described by Chalmers as a second-term priority, is another critical area. Australia’s productivity performance is among the weakest in the developed world, and economic output per person declined for seven consecutive quarters through 2023 and much of 2024. Labor’s first term focused on taming inflation, which Chalmers said will remain a concern, but the shift toward productivity signals ambition to address structural weaknesses. However, as Diana Mousina of AMP cautioned, “Significant economic reforms doesn’t seem to be a part of their agenda.” The government’s pre-election budget, with tax cuts and rebates, provided temporary relief but was criticized as a short-term fix. With government spending projected at 26-27% of GDP over the next three years—compared to a long-term benchmark of 22.5%—and revenue at 25%, structural deficits loom. S&P Global Ratings warned that Australia’s AAA rating could be at risk if campaign pledges exacerbate deficits and debt.
Labor’s agenda, as outlined in Albanese’s victory speech, emphasizes care—strengthening healthcare, wiping out student debt, and offering childcare subsidies—alongside energy relief and housing assistance. These priorities address immediate household concerns but raise questions about funding. “Quite clearly, the bond market will be asking questions how this spending will be paid for,” Newnaha observed, noting rising yields on three-year government bonds. The Senate, where Labor lacks control and must negotiate with the opposition or minor parties, poses another hurdle. Chalmers acknowledged this, stating that “nobody will control the Senate,” which could temper ambitious reforms. The 2010 minority government, formed after 17 days of negotiations, serves as a reminder of the challenges of governing without a clear upper-house majority.
Externally, Labor’s improved relations with China, which lifted $13 billion in trade barriers since 2022, strengthen Australia’s position in trade negotiations. Yet, the risk of escalating tensions between the U.S., Australia’s security ally, and China, its largest trading partner, remains a concern. Analysts see Labor’s mandate as enhancing its leverage with the U.S., particularly in countering the economic fallout from Trump’s trade war. Eliza Owen of Cotality noted that Albanese’s election-night address signaled a focus on “fundamental concerns for households, such as housing, education, health care and child care,” moving away from divisive culture wars. This shift could foster domestic unity, but the government must balance these priorities with the fiscal discipline needed to maintain economic stability.
With Albanese’s second term underway, the future holds both possibilities and risks. The historic mandate offers a chance to address systemic issues—housing affordability, tax reform, and productivity—that have long eluded resolution. Falling interest rates may provide fiscal flexibility, but rising bond yields and global trade risks demand caution. Labor’s victory reflects voter trust in its steady hand, but maintaining that trust requires delivering on promises without succumbing to short-term populism. Whether Albanese will seize this moment to enact transformative change or prioritize incremental progress remains uncertain. For now, Australia watches, hopeful that this rare alignment of political capital and economic need will yield a stronger, more resilient future.
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