By Priyanka Jaiswal, Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, MAHE, Manipal, India
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| Cover Image Attribute: The Yarlung Tsangpo, also known as Brahmaputra River in Shigatse, Tibet, PRC / Source: Boqiang Liao / Date: July 12, 2010 |
By Priyanka Jaiswal
Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, MAHE, Manipal, India
Climate change is ubiquitous, and nothing will remain unaffected by its consequences. Though different regions will be affected in different magnitudes, the political, social, and economic impacts will affect the global geopolitical discourse. There has been enough scientific evidence, and now climate change is recognized as the most immediate threat for humanity. However, many are also seeing it as an opportunity to increase their capabilities. The transnational nature of the threat here signals probabilities of a geopolitical struggle. In this light, it is interesting to delve into the dynamics of rising India-China tensions and how climate change is going to play its role in this conflict.
South Asia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions because of the population size and density and inadequate mitigation and adaptation capabilities. Water scarcity and climate change-induced migration are among the most prominent challenges for South Asia. Against this backdrop, the growing tensions and hostility between the major powers in the region strengthen the probability of increasing geopolitical instability in the region. The region has been witnessing extreme weather events and climate change is now the focal point of major political discussions. The geography of the region is the most crucial in this regard. India is the only country in the region that shares its boundaries with all South Asian countries. China, on the other hand, owing to its strong political and economic involvement, has emerged as the most powerful extra-regional power.
China’s control of Tibet has given it extraordinary geopolitical leverage. Being an upper riparian state, it has at its disposal opportunities to wield power against adversaries by controlling or determining the water flow of various rivers flowing from Tibet. China itself faces the problem of water scarcity, not because of a lack of water resources, but because of its enormous population size. In attempts to manage its water needs, China has indulged in constructing dams. It has the highest number of dams in the world. Importantly, these dams have helped China in dealing with the problem of industrial water pollution too. As the focus of the world is shifting to renewable energy to mitigate climate change, China is at the forefront in adapting itself to the emerging technologies. China’s dams have made it the largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world. China’s efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change however are creating concern for other countries in South Asia, especially India.
India’s vulnerability to climate change is long known and was highlighted in the 2019 climate risk index in which it ranked 7th. In 2021 again, it retained the same rank, though it was an improvement from the 2020 ranking (5th). The Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC has underlined that the intensity and frequency of drought, heatwaves, and floods, is going to increase manifolds in India. The monsoon is going to be more erratic. Most rivers in India are monsoon fed and in the near future, Brahmaputra will also be more dependent on monsoons and not on the glacial melt. Amidst these forecasts, China’s activities in Brahmaputra and Indus aggravate India’s concerns. The probability of floods has increased as an outcome of the changing climate. Coupled with this is the factor of China’s plan to construct another dam on the Brahmaputra near the "Great Bend" from where it enters into India. Also, the region is under the seismic zone V and is prone to earthquakes of the highest intensity. It is therefore a significant issue for India and other lower riparian states as such water projects could trigger floods and lead to water scarcity too.
Against the backdrop of these risks, India plans to construct its own dam in Arunachal Pradesh. The dam is described as the need of the hour by Indian officials as it will help in mitigating the adverse consequences of the Chinese dam project. North-eastern states of India and Bangladesh thus are the most vulnerable and people from these regions are most likely to be displaced. These regions are dependent on the Brahmaputra and any drastic change in its flow could create devastating floods. This could mean loss of livelihood and homes for the inhabitants. The possible options for the people to ensure their survival will be to move to other places either within their country or to other countries. These displaced people will then be portrayed as the cause of conflicts in the region where they migrate to when the intensity of extreme weather events will increase. There will be more people from different ethnicities and nationalities struggling for the same resources. A traditional perspective entails high probabilities of conflicts. Other associated socio-economic concerns will also highlight major challenges for governance. These do not sound like a welcoming sign for South Asia which already faces a myriad of such issues.
Away from the Brahmaputra, the site of the Indus River also poses geostrategic and climate-based challenges between India and China. Currently, China is constructing a dam with Pakistan in the Gilgit-Baltistan region as part of its BRI project. The climate forecast seems to be favorable for this project as because of glacier melt, the water flow in the river will increase and this will increase the utility of the dam. This will also be another strong aspect of the Sino-Pak nexus and India-China tensions. Another impact of melting glaciers in India’s western border will however be favorable for the Indian military as it will reduce India’s disadvantages in terms of protective equipment. It is important to understand here that amidst the ongoing tensions between India and China, any disaster or extreme weather events in the lower riparian states in the region can heighten the distrust between the countries. It will be obvious for India to suspect Chinese activities as the cause of any such disasters, even if that might not be the case. The ways in which hydro politics of the region unfolds amidst challenges of climate change can be said to be one of the focal points of India-China relations.
India has recently established its net-zero emission target which considering the historical responsibility and development framework deserves huge appreciation. The developed countries which carry the burden of being responsible for the present state of climate have also set long-term targets to achieve net-zero emissions. In this light, India’s net-zero target has definitely been a much-needed and welcomed commitment and it has strengthened India’s climate diplomacy efforts. However, India seems to be lagging behind China in attempts to deal with the impacts of climate change. This can also impact future investments in India as businesses will also be greatly concerned about vulnerabilities to environmental impacts and climate change. An optimistic line however is the fact that India has also begun to treat climate change as an immediate concern and has started exploring all possibilities of renewable energy generation. Emphasis is also on the concepts of the circular and blue economy. As far as commitments to Paris Agreement is concerned, India is leading the way in fulfillment of its target. India’s attempts to balance economic and environmental policies will however be met with certain challenges in the domestic arena. A shift to renewable energy will raise concerns for states like Jharkhand and Odisha which are essentially considered to be poor states and their economy largely depends on coal and other fossil fuels.
The ongoing situation of tension and conflict coupled with the growing impacts of climate change will aggravate the security situation between China and India. China and India have stood on the same side during climate negotiations to date and there is thus a possibility that climate change is one area where both countries can cooperate. Building regional institutions and jointly managing shared river basins is one way that can help reduce misperceptions. Because China is an upper riparian State, these efforts should be initiated by China and India should also accordingly cooperate. Other countries and actors in the region should also be taken into consideration. The challenges posed by climate change should not be seen through the lens of rivalry as it will worsen the already grim situation. The question is not only about one state. The nature of this challenge does not obey the man-made political boundaries. The impact of actions taken by any country to manage the challenges posed by climate change is sure to have ripple effects in the entire region and thus cooperation should be the way forward.
About the Author
Priyanka Jaiswal (ORCID: 0000-0003-3449-411X) is a Second Year Masters's Student at The Department Of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), India.
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