US Sanctions on Venezuela Oil Will Push Brent to $70/bbl - GIQ Feb Energy Market Survey

By the Gulf Intelligence

Image Attribute: Workers climbing on an oil storage of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.(the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company) / Creative Commons

Image Attribute: Workers climbing on an oil storage of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.(the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company) / Creative Commons

Dubai - March 6, 2019 (Gulf Intelligence): International intervention into the political crisis in Venezuela will place upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, according to 81% of those polled in GIQ’s monthly Energy Market Survey in February and US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports will push Brent crude prices to the $70/bbl mark in the first quarter, 69% of respondents said.

Will International Geopolitical Intervention into Venezuela push Upward or Download pressure on Oil prices over the coming months?

Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped 40% in the first full month after U.S. sanctions designed to oust Socialist President Nicolas Maduro, were initiated in early February. On January 28, President Trump’s administration barred U.S. customers from paying for Venezuelan crude oil until a new government being formed by the nation’s Congress head Juan Guaido, could be established.  The directive was then extended beyond simply barring U.S. companies from buying Venezuelan oil – and applied to all companies using the U.S. financial system to do business with PDVSA - resembling similar sanctions measures targeting Iran. The market paid attention, with Vitol and Trafigura last month, for example, saying they would comply with all U.S. sanctions.

US Sanctions on Venezuela's Oil Exports Will Push Brent Crude Oil up to $70 a BBL in Q1?

However, despite the US sanctions as well as strong compliance by the OPEC+ group to their agreement to cut output by 1.2 million b/d through to June 2019, Brent has so far held below $70/bbl, sitting comfortably in the mid-$60s since the start of the year.

OPEC's Oil Exports to U.S. fell to five-year low in January - will this trend continue?

However, despite the US sanctions as well as strong compliance by the OPEC+ group to their agreement to cut output by 1.2 million b/d through to June 2019, Brent has so far held below $70/bbl, sitting comfortably in the mid-$60s since the start of the year.

Disruptive technologies will accelerate the transformation of the oil industry and make it difficult for NOC in the Middle East to maintain their dual responsibility of maximizing profits and the social contract of national employment?

Meanwhile, OPEC’s exports to the US fell to a five year low in January and 88% of GIQ respondents see this trend continuing. US shale output has increased 140% since 2008 and some are now forecasting that the country could be a net exporter of crude and refined products by as soon as 2020. The EIA estimated that US oil output hit 12 million b/d in mid-February whereas most recent estimates had been predicting that this level would not be reached until the second half of the year.
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IndraStra Global: US Sanctions on Venezuela Oil Will Push Brent to $70/bbl - GIQ Feb Energy Market Survey
US Sanctions on Venezuela Oil Will Push Brent to $70/bbl - GIQ Feb Energy Market Survey
By the Gulf Intelligence
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